Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1308

(+) Yeah! (+)

Considering what happened to the rest of the MGS cast, it's quite possible Snake's fallen since 2013.

Snake (2013c) has a strength of 47.55 against Base Link.
The Boss (2013c) has a strength of 29.49 against Base Link.
Snake wins with 68.99% of the vote!
---

I don't like this format. It's double-elimination until the final battle? But then it suddenly becomes not? So whoever wins through the bracket the first time (**cough** Link **cough**) would lose the final even if it's just a one-off?
---

Snake has one pretty huge reason to hold on that literally nobody else in his series does
---

TheOneAboveAll posted...

I don't like this format. It's double-elimination until the final battle? But then it suddenly becomes not? So whoever wins through the bracket the first time (**cough** Link **cough**) would lose the final even if it's just a one-off?

I mean it's enough of a long shot to ask someone to beat Link once

you want someone to have to do it twice?
---

LeonhartFour posted...

TheOneAboveAll posted...

I don't like this format. It's double-elimination until the final battle? But then it suddenly becomes not? So whoever wins through the bracket the first time (**cough** Link **cough**) would lose the final even if it's just a one-off?

I mean it's enough of a long shot to ask someone to beat Link once

you want someone to have to do it twice?

yes

so the novelization can include this:

Crono: *panting* I've... I've finally done it. The tyrant has fallen, the false idol has crumbled, now the world will know... the true Hero of Time... Thanks, everyone...
*Crono smiles at the distant figures of Alucard, Tifa, and Cloud*

I. Hear. A. Sound.

*Suddenly, the Song of Time begins playing and time reverses, healing Link*
---

TheOneAboveAll posted...

I don't like this format. It's double-elimination until the final battle? But then it suddenly becomes not? So whoever wins through the bracket the first time (**cough** Link **cough**) would lose the final even if it's just a one-off?

What are you talking about? Link will win the entire bracket and then be up agasint the winner of the "losers" bracket

He'll most likely face Mario Twice or Mario once and Cloud the 2nd time. Although if Seph goes back in time we could have a boring Seph/Link final like 2006. But Cloud should prevail losers and face Link again only to lose again.
---

I'm going for a freaky bracket where Tifa beats Cloud and Zelda beats Link and we have a Zelda > Tifa final.

It would make me laugh.
---

ctesjbuvf posted...

Zelda vs. Sonic is the only match where I can really see a potential NN defeat.

Sonic looked decent in 2010.....until he faced Link.

He looked like he would struggle to even beat Bowser 1v1 in 2013.

I kind of agree and I think he's lucky allen put Seph in the main bracket and not Sonic(who deserved to go in based on N9 strength from past)
---

Pikachu and MM could be really close. Wouldn't be surprised if Pikachu pulls off the upset.

Tifa coming through to get me 9th on the leaderboard woo. I'll enjoy it the week this lasts cause my Tifa > Samus pick is going to permanently drop me off it lol.

Yuri_LowelI posted...

He looked like he would struggle to even beat Bowser 1v1 in 2013.

he beat Bowser pretty handily actually

although I wouldn't take anything from that match at face value
---

also interesting poll to consider for Mega Man/Pikachu

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5265-character-battle-ix-bonus-battle-3-runners-up-battle

yes yes I know bonus match, doesn't count, etc. etc. etc.

but it suggests Mega Man would beat Pikachu unless he gets like 95% of Mewtwo's votes
---

Holy crap, I completely forgot about that match. So not only did Mewtwo run through elites and the N9 during that contest, he also put up 57% on Pikachu for good measure.

The fraudulence knows no ends!
---

Division 1

Ganondorf 50.00%
Vivi 48.04%
Dante 43.60%
Donkey Kong 43.26%
Chun-Li 41.09%
Leon Kennedy 38.35%
Tidus 37.26%
Spyro the Dragon 36.02%
Lightning 29.98%
Cuphead 24.77%
Yu Narukami 24.13%
Dragonborn 24.02%
Aya Brea 23.59%
Neku Sakuraba 21.40%
Victor Sullivan 19.08%
Chloe Price 15.48%

Division 2

Pikachu 50.00%
Yoshi 45.20%
Zero 43.44%
Knuckles the Echidna 38.10%
Kratos 36.59%
Wario 34.53%
Scorpion 33.59%
Zidane Tribal 32.92%
Master Hand 26.96%
Velvet Crowe 26.55%
Monika 24.47%
Shantae 23.26%
Noctis Lucis Caelum 22.89%
Primrose 22.43%
James Sunderland 20.69%
John Marston 19.63%

Division 3

Alucard 50.00%
Pokemon Trainer Red 46.19%
Sora 45.36%
Big Boss 44.18%
Princess Peach 43.19%
Crash Bandicoot 41.64%
Kefka 40.56%
Yuna 40.38%
Ridley 38.29%
Cecil Harvey 38.16%
Bomberman 32.59%
L-Block 32.29%
Ryo Hazuki 28.05%
Kazuma Kiryu 25.50%
Neptune 22.80%
Godot 22.16%

Division 4

Bowser 50.00%
Kirby 46.14%
Charizard 43.45%
2B 41.81%
Terra Branford 41.02%
Ness 38.70%
Shadow the Hedgehog 36.17%
Phoenix Wright 29.24%
Ike 28.86%
Isaac 27.42%
Chris Redfield 25.19%
Guile 23.49%
Gordon Freeman 22.61%
Joel 21.74%
Estelle Bright 19.40%
Cayde-6 18.56%

Division 5

Zelda 50.00%
Aerith Gainsborough 37.81%
Squall Leonhart 36.68%
Fox McCloud 35.77%
Jill Valentine 32.83%
Waluigi 32.19%
Captain Toad 30.26%
The Boss 29.30%
Shovel Knight 28.70%
Garrus Vakarian 26.39%
Ramza Beoulve 26.06%
Metal Sonic 25.48%
Ezio Auditore da Firenze 24.67%
D. Va 20.37%
Aloy 19.18%
Hat Kid 17.69%

Division 6

Auron 50.00%
Geralt 46.86%
Bayonetta 46.04%
Simon Belmont 44.81%
Vincent Valentine 44.20%
Pac-Man 44.13%
Ryu Hayabusa 44.10%
Sub-Zero 43.29%
Magus 42.53%
Rosalina 41.21%
Lucina 34.56%
Riku 32.77%
Shulk 32.41%
Claire Redfield 29.21%
Joker/Ren Amamiya 27.12%
Sans 25.27%

Division 7

Tifa Lockhart 50.00%
Mega Man X 49.82%
Luigi 48.64%
Mewtwo 41.90%
Frog 37.33%
Revolver Ocelot 31.48%
GlaDOS 31.44%
King Dedede 31.17%
Miles Tails Prower 29.52%
Geno 26.81%
Master Chief 26.29%
Nathan Drake 25.55%
Miles Edgeworth 21.92%
Isabelle 19.28%
Monokuma 17.64%
Goro Majima 16.29%

Division 8

Sephiroth 50.00%
Ryu 39.74%
Amaterasu 38.63%
Captain Falcon 35.07%
Lara Croft 34.84%
Albert Wesker 29.72%
Richter Belmont 27.78%
KOS-MOS 27.76%
Commander Shepard 26.59%
King K. Rool 25.93%
Ellie 25.29%
Lloyd Irving 25.08%
Aqua 23.66%
Metal Man 22.37%
Quiet 16.98%
Draven 9.16%
---

LeonhartFour posted...

Draven 9.16%

lmao
---

CaptainOfCrush posted...

Holy crap, I completely forgot about that match. So not only did Mewtwo run through elites and the N9 during that contest, he also put up 57% on Pikachu for good measure.

The fraudulence knows no ends!

Apart from pikachu. Pokemon in general shouldnt have any weight in regards to consistent strength. One minute squirtle is hanging with cloud the next hes not even nominated to be in the contest. Pokemons will come and go and have different strength due to bandwagoning. Mewtwo and charizard are good examples of a lets just vote for the sake of a Pokemon bandwagon entrants. Now theyre just low midcard fodder.

I guarantee for next character battle if we have a new entrant like a blastoise or someone from gen one that has never made it theyll go on a run and beat some strong characters only to disappear next contest.
---

Thanks for posting the full division stats!
---

just for fun here is what Sephiroth would have to get on each #1 finisher in order for someone to finish below Draven

Ganondorf - 70.41%
Pikachu - 76.67%
Alucard - 79.33%
Bowser - 75.40%
Zelda - 74.11%
Auron - 81.88%
Tifa - 71.88%
---

Is it possible for something really stupid like Samus>Sephiroth>Mario to happen even if Mario likely beats Samus 1v1? That Vivi result in 2013 is messing with me so much and Sephiroth actually looked great against Ryu. Mario likely wins, but I feel that three pack and Zelda shenanigans are the only real upset hopes instead of something so cookie cutter.

also for fun

if the MMX/Ryu proportion from 2013 holds up (spoilers it probably doesn't because LOL Draven) then Tifa would be expected to get 46.60% on Sephiroth
---

tgs2 posted...

Is it possible for something really stupid like Samus>Sephiroth>Mario to happen even if Mario likely beats Samus 1v1? That Vivi result in 2013 is messing with me so much and Sephiroth actually looked great against Ryu. Mario likely wins, but I feel that three pack and Zelda shenanigans are the only real upset hopes instead of something so cookie cutter.

Probably. Samus has proven to be stronger than Mario in contests indirectly.

Depends how close Seph/Mario is

If its a 51/49 in favour of Seph. I could see samus besting Seph by the same margin.

But its a big if. I know sephiroth has looked impressive but This isnt 2005 anymore. Mario is just on another level now.
---

And some more fun with numbers!

If Zelda = Sephiroth:
Ryu gets 52.43% on Aerith
Ammy gets 52.52% on Squall
Fox gets 50.98% on Captain Falcon
Lara gets 52.88% on Jill
Waluigi gets 53.84% on Wesker
Captain Toad gets 54.10% on Richter
The Boss gets 52.63% on KOS-MOS
Shepard gets 50.38% on Garrus
Ramza gets 51.88% on Lloyd
Metal Sonic gets 56.10% on Metal Man
---

LusterSoldier posted...

Enter Your Tiebreaker:
How many total votes will be cast through all 30 battles of this portion of the tournament (not including the registered user bonus)?

This question will be pretty easy to answer because we all already know the average vote totals per match for the contest up to this point.

We're currently averaging 20077 raw votes per match. So that projects for a total of 602310 votes for the remainder of the contest.

However, I expect the rest of the contest to have slightly higher average vote totals compared to the first 4 rounds. My recommendation for a tiebreaker will be somewhere between 610000 and 700000.

Damn, I thought I overshot my main bracket tiebreaker by the millions.

Overshot by about 500k, but that's a lot closer than I thought.
---

Division 7/8, Round 4

Luigi vs. Tifa Lockheart
Registered Vote Result:
Luigi - 5054 (50.60%)
Tifa Lockheart - 4934 (49.40%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Luigi - 5041 (45.13%)
Tifa Lockheart - 6129 (54.87%)

Sephiroth vs. Ryu
Registered Vote Result:
Sephiroth - 5893 (59.01%)
Ryu - 4094 (40.99%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Sephiroth - 6983 (62.51%)
Ryu - 4188 (37.49%)

Luigi/Tifa has nearly a 5.5 point split between registered and anonymous users, with Luigi outright winning the registered user vote. This match also has 47.21% registered user votes out of the overall raw vote totals. This percentage of registered user votes is not out of line with other non-rallied matches. I still don't rule out that some rallied votes came in for Tifa. Even removing 300 anonymous votes from Tifa would bring that match down to about a 4 point split between registered/anonymous users and change the match to have 47.89% registered user votes.

Sephiroth did much better with the anonymous user vote, with a 3.5% difference between registered/anonymous votes.

Extra info and past results - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1O1QuDMeK4VhHOia7bdBgtVp_F3kRTnGkkjtR0zRyudw/pub
---

Square characters have tended to do much better with the anonymous vote this year anyway.
---

Even Tifa/Mewtwo was only about a 2.5% difference and that had no rallying. Luigi/Tifa was a very huge split of about 5.5%, comparable to Zelda's round 1 match and still less than Pikachu's first 2 matches (exactly 6.4% on both). Tifa's not a character that will completely collapse with the registered user vote, so part of that huge registered/anonymous split could be attributed to some rallied votes. Still don't think the match had more than 500 rallied votes.
---

LeonhartFour posted...

TheOneAboveAll posted...

I don't like this format. It's double-elimination until the final battle? But then it suddenly becomes not? So whoever wins through the bracket the first time (**cough** Link **cough**) would lose the final even if it's just a one-off?

I mean it's enough of a long shot to ask someone to beat Link once

you want someone to have to do it twice?

Its just a bad structure for a tournament. The point of double elimination is that you need to lose twice to be out. If you lose once in the finals to someone who has already lost, there is usually a reset.
---

Yuri_LowelI posted...

This isnt 2005 anymore. Mario is just on another level now.

What evidence do we have for this? People keep saying it but where have we actively seen it?
---

nobody cares
---

sorry I see no evidence that topic ever existed
---

Link versus Cloud posted...

LeonhartFour posted...

TheOneAboveAll posted...

I don't like this format. It's double-elimination until the final battle? But then it suddenly becomes not? So whoever wins through the bracket the first time (**cough** Link **cough**) would lose the final even if it's just a one-off?

I mean it's enough of a long shot to ask someone to beat Link once

you want someone to have to do it twice?

Its just a bad structure for a tournament. The point of double elimination is that you need to lose twice to be out. If you lose once in the finals to someone who has already lost, there is usually a reset.

How do you even do this though? Run the same poll again the next day? That would be stupid.

Also, the thing is that you have to predict everything beforehand, so the script for the bracket would be weird because some people would have Link just winning in the finals and ending it there and some people would have Link losing once and forcing a rematch, which would result in more possible points and some people would potentially have no pick to make.
---

ShatteredElysium posted...

How do you even do this though? Run the same poll again the next day? That would be stupid.

I could see the re-run getting much lower vote totals due to a lot of voters thinking it's the same poll that they already voted in.
---

So, what do you guys think the Top 15 looks like now?
My rough guess although I feel something screwy is gonna happen with samus, sonic and zelda.

Link
Mario
Snake
Cloud
Samus
Crono
Sephiroth
Megaman
Zelda
Sonic
Bowser
Tifa
Megaman X
Pikachu
Auron
---

fallenstar posted...

So, what do you guys think the Top 15 looks like now?
My rough guess although I feel something screwy is gonna happen with samus, sonic and zelda.

Link
Mario
Snake
Cloud
Samus
Crono
Sephiroth
Megaman
Zelda
Sonic
Bowser
Tifa
Megaman X
Pikachu
Auron

Auron shouldn't be anywhere near these guys imo. At the very least, I'd take Yoshi, Luigi and Kirby over Auron.

As for the top 15, I still need to think about it. The biggest wildcards for me are Crono (did he get a boost? if so how much?) and Snake (what does MGS collapsing mean for him?).
---

Probably something like this:
Link
Mario
Samus Aran
Cloud Strife
Solid Snake
Sephiroth
Crono
Zelda
Mega Man
Sonic the Hedgehog
Pikachu
Ganondorf
Bowser
Tifa Lockheart
Mega Man X
---

I think Vivi beats Bowser. Kirby is probably as strong (or stronger) indirectly, too.
---

squexa posted...

As for the top 15, I still need to think about it. The biggest wildcards for me are Crono (did he get a boost? if so how much?) and Snake (what does MGS collapsing mean for him?).

For Crono, we could look at Frog's performance this contest and compare it to a similar opponent from 2010:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7326-
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3757-

Frog did do a little bit better against Luigi compared to Bowser in 2010, though the 2010 match was a day match that would have boosted Bowser slightly as Frog has a terrible ASV. Yet I would take Bowser > Luigi (though they're very close), which means that Frog 2018 should be pretty similar to Frog 2010. At best, Frog 2018 is only very marginally stronger than Frog 2010. Assuming Luigi 2018 = Bowser 2010, then Frog 2018 gets 52.16% on Frog 2010. Not much of an improvement there.

Magus is tougher to evaluate because his result against Vincent was almost all on Vincent dropping. Probably the only FFVII character that I would say for sure has dropped, where as the rest of the FFVII crew seems to have retained their strength quite well (even Sephiroth)
---

Wait, does Link/Ganondorf mean that Chloe Price probably finishes below Draven?
---

TheOneAboveAll posted...

Wait, does Link/Ganondorf mean that Chloe Price probably finishes below Draven?

In the raw stats, yeah, unless Ganondorf holds up like a champ. He'd have to get at least 29.59% to avoid it.

thankfully Chloe is the one character I'm okay with being below Draven
---

LeonhartFour posted...

TheOneAboveAll posted...

Wait, does Link/Ganondorf mean that Chloe Price probably finishes below Draven?

In the raw stats, yeah, unless Ganondorf holds up like a champ. He'd have to get at least 29.59% to avoid it.

thankfully Chloe is the one character I'm okay with being below Draven

Aw, crap, now I want to vote for Ganondorf.

Well, we'll likely use Ganondorf vs Pikachu/Mega Man for xstats.
---

LusterSoldier posted...

squexa posted...

As for the top 15, I still need to think about it. The biggest wildcards for me are Crono (did he get a boost? if so how much?) and Snake (what does MGS collapsing mean for him?).

For Crono, we could look at Frog's performance this contest and compare it to a similar opponent from 2010:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7326-
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3757-

Frog did do a little bit better against Luigi compared to Bowser in 2010, though the 2010 match was a day match that would have boosted Bowser slightly as Frog has a terrible ASV. Yet I would take Bowser > Luigi (though they're very close), which means that Frog 2018 should be pretty similar to Frog 2010. At best, Frog 2018 is only very marginally stronger than Frog 2010. Assuming Luigi 2018 = Bowser 2010, then Frog 2018 gets 52.16% on Frog 2010. Not much of an improvement there.

Magus is tougher to evaluate because his result against Vincent was almost all on Vincent dropping. Probably the only FFVII character that I would say for sure has dropped, where as the rest of the FFVII crew seems to have retained their strength quite well (even Sephiroth)

The thing about Magus is that he still looks boosted through Auron, but of course the big question is whether Auron also fell.
---

squexa posted...

fallenstar posted...

So, what do you guys think the Top 15 looks like now?
My rough guess although I feel something screwy is gonna happen with samus, sonic and zelda.

Link
Mario
Snake
Cloud
Samus
Crono
Sephiroth
Megaman
Zelda
Sonic
Bowser
Tifa
Megaman X
Pikachu
Auron

Auron shouldn't be anywhere near these guys imo. At the very least, I'd take Yoshi, Luigi and Kirby over Auron.

As for the top 15, I still need to think about it. The biggest wildcards for me are Crono (did he get a boost? if so how much?) and Snake (what does MGS collapsing mean for him?).

Yeah should probably be Luigi for my 15th given how i have tifa and X there and how close they all are together.

Frog did do a little bit better against Luigi compared to Bowser in 2010, though the 2010 match was a day match that would have boosted Bowser slightly as Frog has a terrible ASV. Yet I would take Bowser > Luigi (though they're very close), which means that Frog 2018 should be pretty similar to Frog 2010. At best, Frog 2018 is only very marginally stronger than Frog 2010. Assuming Luigi 2018 = Bowser 2010, then Frog 2018 gets 52.16% on Frog 2010. Not much of an improvement there.

Yeah despite the supposed Crono boost. I feel he is really about the same place he was in 2010. I feel like only Link and Mario really boosted and everyone else just dropped a bit.
Magus/Auron is probably mostly Auron falling.
---

LeonhartFour posted...

And some more fun with numbers!

If Zelda = Sephiroth:
Ryu gets 52.43% on Aerith
Ammy gets 52.52% on Squall
Fox gets 50.98% on Captain Falcon
Lara gets 52.88% on Jill
Waluigi gets 53.84% on Wesker
Captain Toad gets 54.10% on Richter
The Boss gets 52.63% on KOS-MOS
Shepard gets 50.38% on Garrus
Ramza gets 51.88% on Lloyd
Metal Sonic gets 56.10% on Metal Man

A disturbing amount of these actually make a lot of sense. The only things that really stand out as questionable are Captain Toad and Ramza
---

When the contest went away a few hours ago, it caused the regular poll on the homepage to experience a brief spike in vote totals after the last matches ended. This is visible in this hourly vote chart for the final 12 hours of the poll:

Time | Votes
13:00 | 446
14:00 | 389
15:00 | 399
16:00 | 374
17:00 | 382
18:00 | 387
19:00 | 366
20:00 | 463
21:00 | 443
22:00 | 373
23:00 | 361
24:00 | 304

The spike in vote totals appeared to last for about 2 hours before dropping off again. I guess a lot of people were checking the homepage expecting to see a contest match, which could explain the spike. It'll be interesting to see the vote totals of the regular polls during the break when there's no contest matches running.

The regular polls during the contest averaged only 9599 votes, compared to 10377 votes for the final 30 regular polls before the start of the first match. The presence of the contest matches caused a 7.5% reduction in vote totals for the regular polls during the contest. This could be explained by the regular polls being pushed slightly farther down on the homepage.
---

LeonhartFour posted...

also interesting poll to consider for Mega Man/Pikachu

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5265-character-battle-ix-bonus-battle-3-runners-up-battle

yes yes I know bonus match, doesn't count, etc. etc. etc.

but it suggests Mega Man would beat Pikachu unless he gets like 95% of Mewtwo's votes

Fair enough, but on the other hand, Pokmon got over half the vote against Mega Man. Not to mention Pikachu just looks stronger than ever before.

tgs2 posted...

Is it possible for something really stupid like Samus>Sephiroth>Mario to happen even if Mario likely beats Samus 1v1? That Vivi result in 2013 is messing with me so much and Sephiroth actually looked great against Ryu. Mario likely wins, but I feel that three pack and Zelda shenanigans are the only real upset hopes instead of something so cookie cutter.

Yeah, it's possible. Wouldn't surprise me; a lot of people think Samus is indirectly stronger than Mario. I actually had that in my second chance bracket initially, but decided to go with Mario > Sephiroth instead.

LeonhartFour posted...

also for fun

if the MMX/Ryu proportion from 2013 holds up (spoilers it probably doesn't because LOL Draven) then Tifa would be expected to get 46.60% on Sephiroth

That...actually seems reasonable! Tifa's held up well to Sephiroth before, and lolhentai could make it even closer.
---

xp1337 posted...

LeonhartFour posted...

TheOneAboveAll posted...

I don't like this format. It's double-elimination until the final battle? But then it suddenly becomes not? So whoever wins through the bracket the first time (**cough** Link **cough**) would lose the final even if it's just a one-off?

I mean it's enough of a long shot to ask someone to beat Link once

you want someone to have to do it twice?

yes

so the novelization can include this:

Crono: *panting* I've... I've finally done it. The tyrant has fallen, the false idol has crumbled, now the world will know... the true Hero of Time... Thanks, everyone...
*Crono smiles at the distant figures of Alucard, Tifa, and Cloud*

I. Hear. A. Sound.

*Suddenly, the Song of Time begins playing and time reverses, healing Link*

I think it's more likely Link wins the first round and loses the second? I'm thinking about putting Link > Crono, Link > Snake, then Crono > Link for the grand final.
---

are you serious about crono>link?
---