Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1308

(+) Yeah! (+)

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this Tifa/Luigi match reminds me of a fun statistic from SC2K5 that I always remember

Nintendo won every Nintendo/Square matchup in SC2K5 except for two: Tifa/Luigi and Seph/Mario

so yeah for as bad as this contest has been for Square it's somehow been worse before...!
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I was slightly favoring Luigi but quickly switched when I learned a Tifa win kept me alive in the Guru through Thanksgiving. I like both characters quite a bit. Always loved how Tifa used fisticuffs while tough guys like Cloud, Vincent, and Barrett used swords and guns.
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Random side note: outside of Hentai rallies, Vivi/DK is the funniest match of the contest for me

14 years of separation from Match 1, 8 years of separation from Match 2, massive strength shifts in both characters, and DK still gets close to the same result on Vivi that he always gets. Vivi is his white whale that he just can't catch
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So who's the strongest character who isn't advancing to the Legends bracket?

I guess the contenders are Vivi, Yoshi, Kirby, and Mega Man X, right?
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Kirby > Mega Man X > Vivi >> Yoshi I think.

Yoshi probably isn't even worth considering, really.
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Yeah, maybe not. I was just looking at the #2 finishers in every division and he seemed like the only other one worth including other than maaaaaaaybe Ryu depending on how highly you think of Seph.
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Mega Man X, unless Kirby really is intrinsically stronger when not running into the Hierarchy. Then Vivi, then Yoshi.
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Yoshi is strong. I don't think he's much weaker than Luigi/Bowser (clearly outperforming Zero on Pikachu is a good result). Just have trouble seeing him do what the others did.
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I'd put Yoshi closer to your #3s. Which is probably the region where I'd put Ryu too.

Sticking to HIERARCHY theory for Kirby. Nothing to me feels like him being weaker than Bowser makes any sense, talking performances from this contest or any contests from like the last 10 years even.
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KamikazePotato posted...

Random side note: outside of Hentai rallies, Vivi/DK is the funniest match of the contest for me

14 years of separation from Match 1, 8 years of separation from Match 2, massive strength shifts in both characters, and DK still gets close to the same result on Vivi that he always gets. Vivi is his white whale that he just can't catch

Maybe my mental math is way off, but if you account for the registered double votes (where DK had an advantage), it's another 56/44.
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oh wow Sephiroth is trying to get 60
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pjbasis posted...

oh wow Sephiroth is trying to get 60

He's been averaging a little over 60% since the end of the first hour. Not sure he'll end up getting there though.
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Curses how is Luigi losing this one! I have no idea what the trends are like these days, but how likely is it that Luigi makes some kind of comeback?

heroicmario posted...

Curses how is Luigi losing this one! I have no idea what the trends are like these days, but how likely is it that Luigi makes some kind of comeback?

https://data.whicdn.com/images/6637408/original.gif
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A classic case of the winking rallies. Foul play undoubtedly afoot. These PS1 Final Fantasy characters cant keep getting away with it!!

FF has won three matches in a row

will the madness ever end
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LeonhartFour posted...

FF has won three matches in a row

will the madness ever end

No.
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Zero hasn't actually been a true near-elite since 2005, so Yoshi beating his percent against Pikachu only does so much to bolster Yoshi's case. In fact, just because I can, here's a chronicle of Zero's major failures from 2006 on:

- 2006: Easily beaten by Luigi in a match the vast majority of B8 expected him to win.
- 2007: Failed to double Lloyd Irving, something which even Fox managed to do in 2010. His Round 2 result against Crono result that year was impressive at face value, but that was also the weakest Crono we've ever seen, with him looking like a generic near-elite as opposed to having Noble Nine-level strength.
- 2008: Placed behind Ryu Hayabusa thanks to LFF from two weak Nintendo characters in Round 1, followed by just barely beating pre-boost Vivi in Round 2, when they were both up against Snake, and he was the only primarily Nintendo character in the match.
- 2010: Let Auron almost score 57% on him, before Auron was beaten by Squall a round later.
- 2013: A decent contest for Zero, but he still barely failed to hold back Mega Man enough to let Charizard advance.
- 2018: Barely managed 56% on Knuckles, then let Wario of all characters severely cut his percentage all night en route to barely reaching 60% on him.

So, in summary, Zero is a fraud.

I keep distinct track of the ones that manage to usurp the reign of Mario. Vivi is their King but fortunately he was stopped short

71% update. Night has arrived.
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I hope this is the last we see of rallies
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heroicmario posted...

I keep distinct track of the ones that manage to usurp the reign of Mario. Vivi is their King but fortunately he was stopped short

Sephiroth coming for win #4 over Mario soon...!
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My guru bracket is hinging on Seph > Mario so go bishie
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Also, my take on the strongest characters who aren't advancing to the Legends bracket, assuming Luigi loses:

Near-Elites: Mega Man X >/= Luigi ~= Kirby

Upper Midcarders: Vivi >/= Yoshi > Zero ~= Ryu

Those are the characters who I take to be ahead of Auron, who is the weakest character in the Legends bracket in my opinion.

LeonhartFour posted...

heroicmario posted...

I keep distinct track of the ones that manage to usurp the reign of Mario. Vivi is their King but fortunately he was stopped short

Sephiroth coming for win #4 over Mario soon...!

Tbh it might make that bottom half more interesting if mario loses

Otherwise its boring mario link final.

Sure a samus link final would be boring too but I cant remember the last time samus faced link
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UltimaterializerX posted...

LeonhartFour posted...

FF has won three matches in a row

will the madness ever end

I hope not!

How hilarious would it be if Cloud actually won this contest?

Hilarious? No.

Crono winning would be the best outcome.

Guy doesnt have smash bros appearance, his game isnt as popular as ff7.

I fully expect crono to win the losers bracket though. For me hes #2 on the site.
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Yuri_LowelI posted...

Sure a samus link final would be boring too but I cant remember the last time samus faced link

Not counting multi-ways (the Battle Royal in 2006 and 4-ways in 2007 and 2008), it's happened once and only once 1-on-1 in 2003.
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Yuri_LowelI posted...

his game isnt as popular as ff7.

CT looked to be more popular than FFVII in 2015
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Legend semifinals is going to be Link > Cloud

Then Legend Finals is going to be Link > Sephiroth

Then Winners Vs Losers Final is going to be Link > Cloud again

Ahahahahaha

Yeah probably not happening but a man can dream dam it.
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So, Square is back.
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LeonhartFour posted...

also honestly I do kind of think (as weird as this is to say) that Amaterasu got some sort of weird "HERO BOOST" for lack of a better term for destroying Draven. Her board vote against Lara Croft was downright insane, for instance.

Lara Croft had a terrible board vote against Metal Man too. She gained about 4% from the freeze to the end of the Power Hour, and then gained about another 2.5% for the rest of the match after the Power Hour. Lara Croft's early vote is very terrible.
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Boy, am I tired of Square always winning around here! When will Nintendo ever get a shot to win one?
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Square seems to have experienced a selective decline. Squall, Sora and Riku certainly look terrible, but many other characters from Square have either performed well, or looked better in retrospect thanks to their strong opponents.
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CaptainOfCrush posted...

Maybe my mental math is way off, but if you account for the registered double votes (where DK had an advantage), it's another 56/44.

Vivi actually gets 55.40% on DK without factoring in the double votes. So DK did improve a little bit from 2004 and 2010.
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Ok so is this being decided by rallies or is Tifa actually ~3% stronger than Luigi?

This lead seems a bit to high for a rally, compared to the X match, but maybe the rally got stronger?

ZeldaTPLink posted...

Ok so is this being decided by rallies or is Tifa actually ~3% stronger than Luigi?

This lead seems a bit to high for a rally, compared to the X match, but maybe the rally got stronger?

Nonsense, the winner of X/Tifa was always going to beat Luigi. I'm actually surprised it was this close.
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Just read those funny posts earlier about the guy being mad that Luigi is losing to Tifa lol

I haven't even played FFVII but I voted Tifa because I hate Luigi, hentai having nothing to do with it. All the stuff the guy was praising Luigi that made him more "complex" in the past 15 or so years has just made me dislike him more. What an annoying character.
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Tifa's anonymous vote advantage does seem a bit more extreme than usual so far(Registered is 50-50, Anonymous is 55.5/44.5)

But Nintendo always seems to have an advantage with registered users and it still being a 50-50 there means Tifa would win regardless unless that 50-50 changes significantly here on out
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I think if the 8 strongest characters were to advance to the legends bracket, I'd swap Alucard and Auron for Kirby/Luigi and Mega Man X. Noy sure if Ganondorf should be swapped for the oher one of Kirby/Luigi.
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LeonhartFour posted...

Division 5

Zelda 50.00%
Aerith Gainsborough 37.81%
Squall Leonhart 36.68%
Fox McCloud 35.77%
Jill Valentine 32.83%
Waluigi 32.19%
Captain Toad 30.26%
The Boss 29.30%
Shovel Knight 28.70%
Garrus Vakarian 26.39%
Ramza Beoulve 26.06%
Metal Sonic 25.48%
Ezio Auditore da Firenze 24.67%
D. Va 20.37%
Aloy 19.18%
Hat Kid 17.69%

This strikes me as one of the most dominated divisions by a non-Noble Niner we've ever seen. Are there other past divisions worthy of comparison?

LeonhartFour posted...

Division 6

Auron 50.00%
Geralt 46.86%
Bayonetta 46.04%
Simon Belmont 44.81%
Vincent Valentine 44.20%
Pac-Man 44.13%
Ryu Hayabusa 44.10%
Sub-Zero 43.29%
Magus 42.53%
Rosalina 41.21%
Lucina 34.56%
Riku 32.77%
Shulk 32.41%
Claire Redfield 29.21%
Joker/Ren Amamiya 27.12%
Sans 25.27%

Alternatively, this seems like one of the most competitive divisions we ever had. This suggests nine characters could have broken 40% on the division winner and nobody could triple anybody.
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Well given that Zelda beat down Squall and Aeris by larger margins than the N9 did, I highly doubt we have seen anything like that before unless a division was full of fodder or a N9 tearing through a division.

GAME FUEL Master Chief 60-40ed everyone in his division in 2007. He would have fallen short but Luigi and Ganondorf LFFed each other just enough for him to get that achievement.

Tifa and even Yuna both 60-40ed their (8 character) female bracket divisions in 2006, too.
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Unless Auron completely flops next round and in the loser's bracket I have to imagine that Geralt's 8-pack is overrated.
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Just for fun, I made combined stats for Divisions 5 and 6 assuming Squall and Auron are equal:

Zelda 50.00%
Aerith Gainsborough 37.81%
Squall Leonhart 36.68%
Auron - 36.68%
Fox McCloud 35.77%
Geralt - 34.48%
Bayonetta - 33.77%
Simon Belmont - 32.87%
Jill Valentine 32.83%
Vincent Valentine - 32.43%
Pac-Man - 32.37%
Ryu Hayabusa - 32.35%
Waluigi 32.19%
Sub-Zero - 31.76%
Magus - 31.20%
Captain Toad 30.26%
Rosalina - 30.23%
The Boss 29.30%
Shovel Knight 28.70%
Garrus Vakarian 26.39%
Ramza Beoulve 26.06%
Metal Sonic 25.48%
Lucina - 25.35%
Ezio Auditore da Firenze 24.67%
Riku - 24.04%
Shulk - 23.78%
Claire Redfield - 21.43%
D. Va 20.37%
Joker - 19.90%
Aloy 19.18%
Sans - 18.54%
Hat Kid 17.69%

Somehow these line up pretty well with a lot of old results, but they still just seem wrong for some reason.
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Came back from work and checked the results. This is what I have to say.

First of all people stop fighting for stupid reasons. We are all old and wise here!(probablye)

1st match=Tifa is winning without rallies too. Didn't expected that.
2nd match=Didn't expected Sephiroth to beat Ryu with around 60%. So either Sephiroth hasn't dropped much or Ryu has dropped a lot?

I like these results. The only bad thing is that my bracket is ruined but hey.
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Ryu has definitely not dropped. Sephiroth is just proving his legitimacy.
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Safer_777 posted...

Came back from work and checked the results. This is what I have to say.

First of all people stop fighting for stupid reasons. We are all old and wise here!(probablye)

1st match=Tifa is winning without rallies too. Didn't expected that.
2nd match=Didn't expected Sephiroth to beat Ryu with around 60%. So either Sephiroth hasn't dropped much or Ryu has dropped a lot?

I like these results. The only bad thing is that my bracket is ruined but hey.

If Ryu dropped I cannot imagine how much Shepard dropped. He looked pretty good against KOS-MOS too.
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