Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1308

(+) Yeah! (+)

Safer_777 posted...

As in all contests the further we go in, the more the votes increase.

@LeonhartFour What is this second chance?

Basically, you get a chance to predict just the Legends bracket once all the entrants are finalized.
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swordz9 posted...

Ganon, Pikachu, Alucard, Bowser, Snake, Auron, Samus and Mario are gonna be my votes. I have yet to play a single Castlevania, Metroid or MGS game too

congrats on going full LMS dude
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TooTooP3 posted...

Is Tifa getting rallied again? I could be wrong, but the vote totals seem a bit higher than they usually are at this time.

We are up about 1600 votes from yesterday but right about in line with Ganon/Vivi (i.e another close match). We are 300 or so down from MMX/Tifa and the rallies we think made a larger difference didn't happen until later in the day. Only the MMX rally was in swing around this point I think

Safer_777 posted...

As in all contests the further we go in, the more the votes increase.

That's not true, the Red vs Alucard and Bowser vs Kirby matches only got around 28k.

TooTooP3 posted...

Safer_777 posted...

As in all contests the further we go in, the more the votes increase.

That's not true, the Red vs Alucard and Bowser vs Kirby matches only got around 28k.

Well, SFF matches tend to get fewer votes anyway.
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LeonhartFour posted...

LusterSoldier posted...

Lara Croft had a terrible board vote against Metal Man too.

Well, Metal Man was entirely a B8 creation, so that's no surprise.

It was still much worse against Ammy. That was almost a joke level board vote.

It was a metal movement for the ages and we were all lucky to see it live.
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LeonhartFour posted...

swordz9 posted...

Ganon, Pikachu, Alucard, Bowser, Snake, Auron, Samus and Mario are gonna be my votes. I have yet to play a single Castlevania, Metroid or MGS game too

congrats on going full LMS dude

Im sure lots of other people vote for characters they dont know for whatever reason especially this year where youre forced to vote in all matches! Most of those are just straight anti-N9 votes though. Its all Ive got left

I was wondering how well a lol x-stats bracket would have done so far. With it being five years since the last character battle and many adjustments based on 2010 performances theres no doubt we could see crazy results.

Anyway, the bracket was filled using the following rules.

1. All characters received their most recent adjusted x-stat value
2. New characters have an x-stat value of 0
3. The winner of a new character vs. new character match will be the higher seed

The following matches were incorrectly predicted by the lol x-stats bracket.

Round 1
Tidus > Donkey Kong
Zidane > Knuckles
Cecil > Crash
L-Block > Kefka
Aloy > D.Va
Shovel Knight > Captain Toad
Ryu Hayabusa > Simon Belmont
Riku > Bayonetta
Nathan Drake > Tails

Round 2
Leon Kennedy > Tidus
L-Block > Bomberman
Ness > 2B
Ike > Phoenix Wright
Ryu Hayabusa > Geralt
Riku > Pac-Man
Master Chief > Nathan Drake

Round 3
L-Block > Alucard
Squall > Zelda
Riku > Ryu Hayabusa

Round 4
Vivi > Ganondorf
L-Block > Pokemon Trainer Red
Squall > Aerith

Current Points: 181/240 (will be 197/256 after Tifa and Sephiroth win)

Not too bad, all things considering. Like the gurus the x-stats bracket failed to predict Donkey Kong and Tails winning their four-pack. Also, the top half of division 6 was a mess with the bracket only getting 2/7 matches correct (the auto-win matches of Geralt > Rosalina and Pac-Man > Sans). New characters were pretty fair with two seeding upsets, 2B > Ness and Geralt adding to the mess of the top half of division 6 being our mistakes.

The biggest busters so far are L-Block and Zelda. L-Block had a great x-stat value in 2013 meaning instead of losing in the first round he was predicted to win the entire division. However, L-Block sort of masks the issue with the division. Even if you make him auto lose to Kefka, Kefka will then defeat Alucard in round 3 and Red will win the division so you are only saving three points so far. Though youll likely save eight more with the Bowser > Red, instead of L-Block > Bowser pick in the losers bracket.

Zelda on the other hand is the sole reason why this bracket lost 12 points and potentially more in future matches. Contests are usually won by picking one or two large upsets and keeping everything else standard. Going pro-Zelda and potentially pro-Ganondorf (as in take them to beat all non-Noble Nine characters) would essentially put this bracket into prize winning territory. Of course, that will only matter if Solid Snake is still the second strongest character which is looking doubtful (or your other upset pick was to take Mario as the second strongest character).

Heres what the remaining picks look like

Link > Vivi
Mega Man > Pikachu
Cloud > L-Block
Crono > Bowser
Solid Snake > Squall
Sonic > Auron
Samus > Tifa
Mario > Sephiroth

Pikachu > Vivi
L-Block > Bowser
Squall > Auron
Tifa > Sephiroth

Link > Mega Man
Crono > Cloud
Solid Snake > Sonic
Mario > Samus

Mega Man > Pikachu
Cloud > L-Block
Sonic > Squall
Samus > Tifa

Link > Crono
Solid Snake > Mario

Mega Man > Cloud
Samus > Sonic

Mega Man > Crono
Mario > Samus

Link > Solid Snake

Mario > Mega Man

Solid Snake > Mario

Link > Solid Snake
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it's just the fact that you're bragging about your votes and games you've never played
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ZenOfThunder posted...

so people can spend time with their families and if shit goes down allen doesn't have to spend his thanksgiving doing damage control

also would have put a big momentum-stopper on any existing rallies if they had gotten this far

Also going from the atmosphere in this forum, I think a break would be much welcome. Some people are getting really stressed about this contest.

the weird thing is that we were mostly pretty chill this year until Tifa/MMX

I'm still kind of amazed that people are legitimately upset about that
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Yeah I mean of all things to get upset about, 2 people close to each other in strength having a close match is not the one you would expect people to flip out about. And it's not like either character has a rabid fanbase

It's the hentai, man. Masturbation corrupts the mind and the soul.

I mean that was a joke but people get irrational when the subject is sex.

I don't consume hentai but I don't give a damn about it either.

Who said I was bragging about them? I just listed who Im voting for in the remaining R1 matches since the contest is going on break for a week. I dont see how it came off as bragging. I dont have anything contest related worth bragging about other than being one of the few who took Geralt winning 3 matches (but I took him over Auron too so...)

DoctorJimmy133 posted...

Antivotes will probably keep Ganondorf over 15%. Surely Link didn't have that always-wins reputation in 2004.

I'll vote depending on how the results look. If the 2004 result can be matched, I'll vote for Link. Otherwise I'll help the pig out.

In 2004, Link just lost the previous contest while in 2018... oh no.
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Link hasn't won in 8 years and the Link fans are just licking their chops.

That Ammy/Draven match was just the Link fans voting for Ammy

everyone will be worth 10% or less on Link in the X-Stats book it
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Yeah Ganon probably breaks 15 at least, Link's blowout power wasn't quite the same in 2010 and 2013 even against lesser Nintendo characters.

I am voting Link in every match and I'm not even feeling bad for it.

He probably doesn't SFF anyone as hard as Ganon though. Almost no one prefers Ganon to Link.
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UltimaterializerX posted...

Exodecai posted...

So.... does Ganondorf break 15% on Link? In 2004 he couldn't even do that....

The question is does he break 10%.

I would be surprised if he is that low.
With the low votals it is pretty hard to get blow out.

Besides, don't forget that the last time we saw Link was when he was the hero the site needed, against Draven 5 years ago
(The bonus match doesn't count)
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ZeldaTPLink posted...

I am voting Link in every match and I'm not even feeling bad for it.

I think I'd vote him over everyone remaining except Snake

Seriously, I think Sephiroth is one of the stars of the round. 60%+ on Ryu is wild.
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Sephiroth (2013c) has a strength of 38.89 against Base Link.
Ryu (2013c) has a strength of 32.50 against Base Link.
Sephiroth58.22%31,413
Ryu41.78%22,547
Sephiroth wins with 58.22% of the vote!

Based purely on stats it's not a HUGE overperformance, but in the context of Ryu dunking on everyone in his side of the division, it's definitely impressive.
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I anti-voted Tifa for what she called Barret in FF7.

yes we know you tell us that every time Tifa has a match
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People talk about Zelda getting a potential Link proxy boost from him not being in the bracket. I wonder if any of the FF7 crew are getting boosts from no Cloud presence

There are no proxy boosts.
There never have been.
There never will be.
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I love how it turns out FF7 is actually still strong, it's just that everyone finally realized how bad a character Vincent really is.
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It's weird to me that people still think proxy voting is a thing like this is the first time Link and Cloud have been removed from the main bracket.
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MegaWentEvil posted...

I anti-voted Tifa for what she called Barret in FF7.

All this time I thought it was Barret's quote
Uh
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so does this destroy the "sephiroth is clearly the weakest noble niner" dialogue that some people were saying earlier in the contest?
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Well, I never really believed he was, but yeah, I have a hard time thinking Sonic 60/40s Ryu, at the very least.
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After 9 hours, Tifa's lead finally breaks 800.
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This result is pretty close to what Sephiroth was expected to get in 2010, so maybe he just didn't drop like we thought.

Which means Ammy is just great but I kinda like the idea of her overperforming due to killing Draven
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BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

Ryu Hayabusa 44.10%
Sub-Zero 43.29%
Magus 42.53%
Rosalina 41.21%

Hmmm, this doesn't quite look right to me, is the thinking that Geralt bandwagoned a bit in the later rounds? I never would have taken Hayabusa over Subby and Magus pre-contest

Yeah, I think there is a good chance that is true. Maybe Magus and Vincent being low on the list could make sense, but Sub-Zero's placement here is definitely off.

If that was a 2002 match, how many people here pick Samus? MAYBE two?

To tell you the honest truth, I would have picked Samus over Mario back in 2002! But back then I didn't know that Mario was that popular and thought he wouldn't be able to touch Cloud, and I thought Samus would be able to contend with Link...
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Janus5k posted...

This result is pretty close to what Sephiroth was expected to get in 2010, so maybe he just didn't drop like we thought.

Which means Ammy is just great but I kinda like the idea of her overperforming due to killing Draven

Well, Ryu has a reason to be a little stronger these days because of Smash, but either way, this seems to speak well of the fact that FFVII at least hasn't dropped off any further.
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For anyone wondering, Tifa is indeed being rallied. Mostly from Reddit; I've seen a thread about voting for Tifa in the FFRK subreddit at least.
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oh that's ExTha's doing again I'm pretty sure
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can crono beat cloud? i see ppl saying crono is stronger now but cmon its like mario/samus all over again.
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I had Crono > Cloud, but to be fair my bracket was made under the assumption that FFVII would be weaker. I also have MMX > Sephiroth.
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MrFirestar posted...

For anyone wondering, Tifa is indeed being rallied. Mostly from Reddit; I've seen a thread about voting for Tifa in the FFRK subreddit at least.

Not like she even needed the rally.

Just noticed it says "Next battle in 1 hour" lol
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Oh man imagine if the next matches went up by accident
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Bonus matches...?
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Might have been nice to have random poll with losers to help evaluate who are the true frauds.

A match between the loser and the semi loser for 2nd place in the division would be cool

Like X vs Luigi or Yoshi vs Zero or even Squall vs Aeris
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This match makes Allen's decision to take Sephiroth out of the Noble Nine look even worse tbh!
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He should have put Sonic in Sephiroth's position (and Sephiroth against Cloud).