Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 224: The Congressional Contempt for Political Buggery

(+) Yeah! (+)

oh i see i was very much beaten to the punch in senate analysis 2020
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LordoftheMorons posted...

I dont think Montana is in the top 4, but being able to miss one or two of the easier ones makes getting to 50 a lot more doable.

I would think MT with Bullock is ahead of at least NC and maybe even IA. Bullock is extremely popular in MT and had a genuine shot at that senate seat.

Without him there is a 0% chance that seat goes blue so you're back to needing three out of AZ, ME, NC, and IA. Nothing else is even in play. I don't think Dems win either of NC or IA and I am not confident at ME either. The math was tough before this, but without Bullock I think it plummets to basically zero.
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I don't fully understand this

But if he drops out of the race soon-ish, could he still then run for Senate?
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TotallyNotMI posted...

But if he drops out of the race soon-ish, could he still then run for Senate?

Yeah, he should be able to. Rubio did this in 2016. Though, this is just me, I feel like it hurts, however slightly, to pull that maneuver and these are races where every bit would count.
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Peace___Frog posted...

You'd think that somebody who was in the white house at that time would be less naive about the idea that Republicans would be cordial.

Every indication we've received from 99% of Republicans over the last decade has been that they either get their way or they throw a tantrum and try to prevent anything from being done. You have to be an absolute moron to think that any Republican politician gives any shits about bipartisanship.

Joe Biden: I have no empathy for Millenials

Also Joe Biden: I love Republicans, and theyll definitely work with me when their President with a 90% approval rating among Republicans is gone.
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I saw this last week and forgot to post it. An interesting "how good is this senator in terms of approval above the state average". Some good news for Dems in here and some not so good news. Unsurprisingly, Manchin ranks at the very top

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-every-senator-ranks-according-to-popularity-above-replacement-senator/

Looking at some people up for election in 2020:

Doug Jones is surprisingly (to me at least) +6 in Alabama. He is actually the second highest rank senator just below Manchin (and just above Klobuchar and Tester). I don't think that is enough to save him in Alabama of all places and I expect this to drop when they start hammering him closer to the election, but he should actually keep the race close. It is at least worth keeping an eye on his favorability going into the election because this is much, much better than I thought it'd be.

Susan Collins is +13 in Maine. This is why I am not actually optimistic about taking Maine from the republicans. She's extremely popular still and the democrats don't even have a good candidate to put against her yet. I might actually drop this seat below both IA and NC just because of how strong she is.

Cory Gardner is currently even in Colorado. Yum yum yum give me that senate seat.

Joni Ernst is only +3 in Iowa (a state with a +6 partisan lean for Republicans). She's vulnerable depending on the candidate and also on how the Dems do in Iowa as a whole. They did amazing in 2018 and if Trump keeps up his tariffs (which hurt farmers more than any other group) I could see the right democrat senator riding off the right democratic presidential nominee to flip the seat.

Martha McSally is even in Arizona. I feel like there are two really good candidates in Arizona that, if they run against her, have pretty good odds of taking it. Sinema already beat her and Arizona is trending more blue by the year. This is a really good opportunity here.

Thom Tillis is only +2 in NC. That's another possibility, but NC has burned me in the past. He might be too conservative for what the state has become, but it really will depend on the candidate here.
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ChaosTonyV4 posted...

Peace___Frog posted...

You'd think that somebody who was in the white house at that time would be less naive about the idea that Republicans would be cordial.

Every indication we've received from 99% of Republicans over the last decade has been that they either get their way or they throw a tantrum and try to prevent anything from being done. You have to be an absolute moron to think that any Republican politician gives any shits about bipartisanship.

Joe Biden: I have no empathy for Millenials

Also Joe Biden: I love Republicans, and theyll definitely work with me when their President with a 90% approval rating among Republicans is gone.

I can see the logic. Republicans can be cowed - this was what Trump did to win control. He turned those debates into a ritual humiliation of the leading 16 Republicans.

Make Republicans start to fear a socialist president and they might decide to work with someone like Biden. But hard to see how that level of cowing could happen in 2020.
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So, the CIA is now investigating the FBI for spying on the Trump campaign.
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...an investigation that is clearly being done to appease Trump's conspiracy theories, and not because there is any evidence whatsoever that the FBI acted improperly.
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ChaosTonyV4 will post in a few days...

Joe Biden: I am literally the spawn of Satan.

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https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1126958896973778950

#ThisIsWhyYouLost2020

Really hope people like AOC stay home because Biden doesn't want everyone to return to subsistence farming. The centrist Dems might legitimately go to war with progressives over this.
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Nelson_Mandela posted...

https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1126958896973778950

#ThisIsWhyYouLost2020

Really hope people like AOC stay home because Biden doesn't want everyone to return to subsistence farming. The centrist Dems might legitimately go to war with progressives over this.

Weakass b8, m8
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Nelson_Mandela posted...

https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1126958896973778950

#ThisIsWhyYouLost2020

Really hope people like AOC stay home because Biden doesn't want everyone to return to subsistence farming. The centrist Dems might legitimately go to war with progressives over this.

Seph, what do you think we should do about climate change?
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https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

Finally a decent poll for anyone that isnt Biden that only has Biden up 8. It comes off the heels of a bad couple of weeks of polling data though, including a doubling of his next closest competitor in NH and a whopping +31 in SC.

Its so far out still that I know it doesnt truly matter but Id be lying if it doesnt damper my optimism slightly.
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Biden had some announcement bonus going on, and if you look back, basically everyone had one. It's dying down a little bit now. He is still in the lead but at this time last primary Clinton was like a 50 point favorite, so it definitely is far from over. And honestly I think the polls are undersampling young people, they just don't answer phones and their percentage of the vote increased in the last two elections.

red sox 777 posted...

Nelson_Mandela posted...

https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1126958896973778950

#ThisIsWhyYouLost2020

Really hope people like AOC stay home because Biden doesn't want everyone to return to subsistence farming. The centrist Dems might legitimately go to war with progressives over this.

Seph, what do you think we should do about climate change?

React to it and stop acting like the world is going to end in ten years.

Allocate money to help places like Miami prepare for rising sea levels while instituting common sense energy reform (incentivize building more nuclear power plants!).
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Nrrr posted...

Biden had some announcement bonus going on, and if you look back, basically everyone had one. It's dying down a little bit now. He is still in the lead but at this time last year Clinton was like a 50 point favorite, so it definitely is far from over. And honestly I think the polls are undersampling young people, they just don't answer phones and their percentage of the vote increased in the last two elections.

True but Bernie was an unknown quantity at that point. He isnt now.

Which means youre basically hoping for Warren/Harris/Mayor Pete to similarly catch fire and I dont think any of them have Bernies magnetism
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Suprak the Stud posted...

Nrrr posted...

Biden had some announcement bonus going on, and if you look back, basically everyone had one. It's dying down a little bit now. He is still in the lead but at this time last year Clinton was like a 50 point favorite, so it definitely is far from over. And honestly I think the polls are undersampling young people, they just don't answer phones and their percentage of the vote increased in the last two elections.

True but Bernie was an unknown quantity at that point. He isnt now.

Which means youre basically hoping for Warren/Harris/Mayor Pete to similarly catch fire and I dont think any of them have Bernies magnetism

I think Bernie is the best shot besides Biden, though still less likely. His biggest strengths are fundraising, the fact he is the second choice of most Biden voters, and his strength being greater in the early voting states than in general polling. So if he does well early, kills it in debate and wins over some Biden voters and continues being able to engage massive enthusiasm he definitely has a shot and it's more likely than it was in 2016.

Nrrr posted...

Suprak the Stud posted...

Nrrr posted...

Biden had some announcement bonus going on, and if you look back, basically everyone had one. It's dying down a little bit now. He is still in the lead but at this time last year Clinton was like a 50 point favorite, so it definitely is far from over. And honestly I think the polls are undersampling young people, they just don't answer phones and their percentage of the vote increased in the last two elections.

True but Bernie was an unknown quantity at that point. He isnt now.

Which means youre basically hoping for Warren/Harris/Mayor Pete to similarly catch fire and I dont think any of them have Bernies magnetism

I think Bernie is the best shot besides Biden, though still less likely. His biggest strengths are fundraising, the fact he is the second choice of most Biden voters, and his strength being greater in the early voting states than in general polling. So if he does well early, kills it in debate and wins over some Biden voters and continues being able to engage massive enthusiasm he definitely has a shot and it's more likely than it was in 2016.

His biggest weakness right now (edit: compared to 2016) are those jilted Hillary supporters who literally think him and his supporters are as sexist and toxic as Trump / the Alt-Right. I just got done reading a Twitter thread about it with thousands of likes and retweets.

From what I can tell, this groups first pick is Warren, who I would be glad to support...but their second pick is Biden, which makes no fuckin sense.
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Nelson_Mandela posted...

red sox 777 posted...

Nelson_Mandela posted...

https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1126958896973778950

#ThisIsWhyYouLost2020

Really hope people like AOC stay home because Biden doesn't want everyone to return to subsistence farming. The centrist Dems might legitimately go to war with progressives over this.

Seph, what do you think we should do about climate change?

React to it and stop acting like the world is going to end in ten years.

Allocate money to help places like Miami prepare for rising sea levels while instituting common sense energy reform (incentivize building more nuclear power plants!).

Climate change is one of the issues I most agree with Democrats on. If I were to support a Democrat, it would be someone who can fight on the policy issues I agree with while jettisoning the baggage of the twin pillars of identity politics and neoliberal economics that has become the core of the Democratic platform.
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ChaosTonyV4 posted...

Nrrr posted...

Suprak the Stud posted...

Nrrr posted...

Biden had some announcement bonus going on, and if you look back, basically everyone had one. It's dying down a little bit now. He is still in the lead but at this time last year Clinton was like a 50 point favorite, so it definitely is far from over. And honestly I think the polls are undersampling young people, they just don't answer phones and their percentage of the vote increased in the last two elections.

True but Bernie was an unknown quantity at that point. He isnt now.

Which means youre basically hoping for Warren/Harris/Mayor Pete to similarly catch fire and I dont think any of them have Bernies magnetism

I think Bernie is the best shot besides Biden, though still less likely. His biggest strengths are fundraising, the fact he is the second choice of most Biden voters, and his strength being greater in the early voting states than in general polling. So if he does well early, kills it in debate and wins over some Biden voters and continues being able to engage massive enthusiasm he definitely has a shot and it's more likely than it was in 2016.

His biggest weakness right now (edit: compared to 2016) are those jilted Hillary supporters who literally think him and his supporters are as sexist and toxic as Trump / the Alt-Right. I just got done reading a Twitter thread about it with thousands of likes and retweets.

From what I can tell, this groups first pick is Warren, who I would be glad to support...but their second pick is Biden, which makes no fuckin sense.

Those jilted Hillary supporters are incorrigible. They are all-in on preserving the wealth of the upper middle class, and that means their only way of distinguishing themselves from Republicans is identity politics. So they are all-in on identity politics.

They are the problem with American politics and Trump is, hopefully, the remedy. But it may take two terms, or maybe more (with another GOP president after Trump) for the medicine to have its effect.
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red sox 777 posted...

They are all-in on preserving the wealth of the upper middle class

and Trump is, hopefully, the remedy

thinkingFaceEmoji
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StealThisSheen posted...

red sox 777 posted...

They are all-in on preserving the wealth of the upper middle class

and Trump is, hopefully, the remedy

thinkingFaceEmoji

he's all in on preserving the wealth of the upper upper class so technically correct

Oh that's right red sox isn't happy unless only the rich have money I forgot
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These fucking morons in Alabama. Do they not understand what an overreach is?

We're almost to 2020 and now they are going to give unlimited fuel to the Left with the "THIS IS WHAT HAPPENS IN TRUMP'S AMERICA"

just couldn't leave abortion rights well the fuck enough alone. Miserable fucking idiot party of backwards Christians who is going to SOMEHOW lose as an incumbent for the fist time in decades.
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and yes on top of that it's fucking nightmarishly evil

if they're gonna pick this hill then hopefully they all definitely die on it
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In a news release, Chambliss touted that his bill outlaws surgical abortions as soon as a pregnancy can be medically determined. Speaking on the Senate floor, Chambliss repeatedly referred to a "window" of time between conception and when a woman knows for certain that she's pregnant. The state senator said he believed that time was between about seven and 10 days.
"She has to take a pregnancy test, she has to do something to know whether she's pregnant or not," he said.
"You can't know that immediately, it takes some time for all those chromosomes and all that."

Yes it definitely sounds like this person understands how the process theyre legislating actually works
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ExThaNemesis posted...

and yes on top of that it's fucking nightmarishly evil

if they're gonna pick this hill then hopefully they all definitely die on it

They didn't even make an exemption for rape.

By Alabama law, someone who rapes a woman can serve ten years in prison (that's the absolute minimum but I bring it up for contrast). If that same woman goes to the doctor one week into her pregnancy and gets an abortion, the doctor who performs it gets 99 years.

I'm just reading all of this now, so if I made a mistake feel free to correct me. But. Yeah. Yikes. This should be so easy for democrats to run against.
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Gross and blatantly unconstitutional
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"You can't know that immediately, it takes some time for all those chromosomes and all that."

It takes time for all those chromosomes and all that.

What a fucking sentence that is.
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LordoftheMorons posted...

Gross and blatantly unconstitutional

That is what they're hoping!

Well, they want the challenge to reach the Supreme Court and for Roberts to side with them to overturn Roe v. Wade. They've openly said as much!
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I actually think there's a decent chance that Kavanaugh would not vote to overturn Roe v Wade

Id like to believe that no one on the SCOTUS would really
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Suprak the Stud posted...

This should be so easy for democrats to run against.

Ha!
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*should* being the sad, key word there.
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https://twitter.com/lyman_brian/status/1128413792801521664?s=21

Chambliss, responding to the IVF argument from Smitherman, cites a part of the bill that says it applies to a pregnant woman. "The egg in the lab doesnt apply. Its not in a woman. Shes not pregnant." #alpolitics

Oh neat, so you can terminate fertilized eggs NOT inside of a woman without penalty. Its only a problem if it IS inside of a woman.
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Jakyl25 posted...

https://twitter.com/lyman_brian/status/1128413792801521664?s=21

Chambliss, responding to the IVF argument from Smitherman, cites a part of the bill that says it applies to a pregnant woman. "The egg in the lab doesnt apply. Its not in a woman. Shes not pregnant." #alpolitics

Oh neat, so you can terminate fertilized eggs NOT inside of a woman without penalty. Its only a problem if it IS inside of a woman.

It's almost like the entire point of anti-abortion legislation is to punish women for daring to have sex.
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I was much more optimistic about one or two conservative justices refusing to overturn before they reversed a few other 40+ year precedents.
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In better news, literal Ted fucking Cruz (Alongside Alabama's own Doug Jones) is helping push school security legislation/funding that is explicitly not allowed to be used to arm teachers.

A step in the right direction!

https://www.cruz.senate.gov/?p=press_release&id=4475

referring to the Alabama/Georgia abortion bullshit...

Its almost like the Republican partys platform is ENTIRELY identity politics, and since their fiscal policy only benefits the super-rich donor class, they need to focus on the identity politics issues like abortion or transgender rights.
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Reg posted...

In better news, literal Ted fucking Cruz (Alongside Alabama's own Doug Jones) is helping push school security legislation/funding that is explicitly not allowed to be used to arm teachers.

A step in the right direction!

https://www.cruz.senate.gov/?p=press_release&id=4475

No it isn't
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Reg posted...

explicitly not allowed to be used to arm teachers.

A step in the right direction!

Reg posted...

Reg posted...

explicitly not allowed to be used to arm teachers.

A step in the right direction!

The right direction would be making it unnecessary to increase school security
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I don't disagree with you, but moving the conversation away from the utterly batshit insane idea > continuing to float the batshit insane idea

As far as the Alabama thing goes, I doubt the Supreme Court is ready to overturn Roe v. Wade. Maybe if you could replace one of the liberals or Roberts with another Trump appointee, but you've got 4 guaranteed no votes right now and Roberts probably makes 5. Don't think any of the other 4 are guaranteed yes votes either, except maybe Thomas.
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Thomas is salivating at the chance to overturn Roe v Wade.
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But if you hear the case too early, before there is a majority for overturning it, you could end up with a case upholding it, which would be very recent precedent and would make it harder to overturn it in the future.
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red sox 777 posted...

As far as the Alabama thing goes, I doubt the Supreme Court is ready to overturn Roe v. Wade. Maybe if you could replace one of the liberals or Roberts with another Trump appointee, but you've got 4 guaranteed no votes right now and Roberts probably makes 5. Don't think any of the other 4 are guaranteed yes votes either, except maybe Thomas.

Kavanaugh would 100% oppose overturning Roe. You need to replace 2 of the liberal justices with super conservatives for this to even be a remote possibility.

What I could see happening is a more gradual shift toward individual states passing harder restrictions. But Alabama probably blew its load and will have to revert back to wherever they were previously. Georgia and Ohio reps are being much smarter about this.
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Alabama's only exception being to save the life of the mother might help it in the courts though. A life is a life is a life and if you allow any exceptions other than to save life, you are tacitly admitting that an unborn child's life is not worth as much as a human who has been born. Not that that will save it here and now.
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Nelson_Mandela posted...

But Alabama probably blew its load

So they have like 10 days to abort this law or they will have to carry it to term
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