Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 274: Rebuttigieg

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Jakyl25
02/27/20 1:42:08 PM
#51:


Corrik7 posted...

This is a bullshit statement.


I forget the timing, but I mean like in the immediate aftermath of the Grab them by the pussy tape and before the Comey letter
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red sox 777
02/27/20 1:42:26 PM
#52:


Jakyl25 posted...
Not if he still wins the popular vote, especially so if its by more than Hillary

Trump could easily win the popular vote this year, but even if not, I don't think it will matter. The Democratic Party is still going to decide that a Bernie loss means they have to run as far to the center as they can.

I think there's a very significant chance that 2016 proves to be a pivot point election - where if Bernie had won the primary, he would have won the general and won a generation of support based on working class votes. But Hillary won, and so Trump won, and now there will be an irreversible shift to Republicans from working class voters. If Trump wins 2020 and the Dems nominate Hillary 2.0 in 2024, that working class vote may be gone to the Republicans for a generation.

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Corrik7
02/27/20 1:43:44 PM
#53:


Jakyl25 posted...
I forget the timing, but I mean like in the immediate aftermath of the Grab them by the pussy tape and before the Comey letter
It's still a bullshit statement. You have no idea how the results would have went. The Comey letter changing the outcome is conjecture and mostly democrat blaming. The polls were off significantly in places that when they went to the polls the results were different. That doesn't change for the polls months prior either, or at least you can't reasonably say it would have.

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red sox 777
02/27/20 1:44:18 PM
#54:


Jakyl25 posted...
I forget the timing, but I mean like in the immediate aftermath of the Grab them by the pussy tape and before the Comey letter

Well, if you cherrypick the date of the election to be on the worst possible part of the news cycle for Trump, then I suppose there's some possibility he might have lost. He probably wins by more right after the Bill Clinton/Loretta Lynch meeting on the tarmac!

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Nelson_Mandela
02/27/20 1:44:50 PM
#55:


Mike Pence is going to win 60% of the popular vote in 2024

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xp1337
02/27/20 1:45:50 PM
#56:


pence wouldn't even win 60% of the popular vote in the 2024 republican primary lmao

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red sox 777
02/27/20 1:46:20 PM
#57:


Nelson_Mandela posted...
Mike Pence is going to win 60% of the popular vote in 2024

I don't think this is happening unless we admit Russia as a state.

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pxlated
02/27/20 1:46:37 PM
#58:


after he wipes out about that much of the population from mishandling the coronavirus outbreak, yeah, he might!

(this is a facetious statement, for you pedants out there)

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red sox 777
02/27/20 1:47:25 PM
#59:


The administration did suggest today that the coronavirus vaccine will only be available for the wealthy.

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LordoftheMorons
02/27/20 2:00:11 PM
#60:


Biden's back up to 17% on 538

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Jakyl25
02/27/20 2:03:56 PM
#61:


Corrik7 posted...
The Comey letter changing the outcome is conjecture and mostly democrat blaming


It was so inappropriate that Trump fired him for it
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Corrik7
02/27/20 2:08:28 PM
#62:


New Hampshire polls released show Trump is very much able to flip that state. Ahead of Biden and Bloomberg. Behind Pete. Tied with Sanders.

Just one poll but New Hampshire in play was something you would expect from last election.

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TheRock1525
02/27/20 2:09:21 PM
#63:


God you people.

Trump is significantly more unpopular than the last three presidents who won re-election, and you remember that W. Bush barely squeaked out a victory.

Trump is the underdog. He has a solid floor but an incredibly low ceiling.

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TheRock1525
02/27/20 2:14:17 PM
#64:


Corrik7 posted...
The Comey letter changing the outcome is conjecture and mostly democrat blaming.
We have hard evidence of a massive shift in polls thanks to the letter and the fact that late deciding voters broke heavily for Trump.

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Nelson_Mandela
02/27/20 2:16:32 PM
#65:


TheRock1525 posted...
God you people.

Trump is significantly more unpopular than the last three presidents who won re-election, and you remember that W. Bush barely squeaked out a victory.

Trump is the underdog. He has a solid floor but an incredibly low ceiling.
Yes, but the economic indicators are also better than any time since at least 1996. That arguably is more predictive than approval ratings.

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Corrik7
02/27/20 2:17:47 PM
#66:


TheRock1525 posted...
We have hard evidence of a massive shift in polls thanks to the letter and the fact that late deciding voters broke heavily for Trump.
Show me polls where he was winning in Wisconsin pa or Michigan.

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LordoftheMorons
02/27/20 2:35:56 PM
#67:


https://twitter.com/ronaldklain/status/1233096384997449728?s=21

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HeroDelTiempo17
02/27/20 2:39:23 PM
#68:


Holy shit what a rumor

https://twitter.com/rebeccaballhaus/status/1233110606779232262?s=19

The article also mentions a NYC mayor run which seems more likely to me but what does the #YangGang say if Bloomberg VP is his play?

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charmander6000
02/27/20 2:41:48 PM
#69:


Nelson_Mandela posted...
I'm interested in seeing who drops out after SC and if they throw an endorsement Biden's way. Steyer is probably a definite if he gets killed.

Steyer is the only one and even then he may just stay for the three extra days and drop out after (assuming he isn't viable in any state).

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red sox 777
02/27/20 2:44:43 PM
#70:


Jakyl25 posted...
It was so inappropriate that Trump fired him for it

Comey handled the whole thing badly but that letter wasn't the big problem. The main problem was that he publicly stated that he would not be charging Hillary with a crime and gave an explanation for it that held no water at all.

In legal parlance, we have negligence, and recklessness. Recklessness is criminal, negligence is not (usually). Careless and negligent are very similar. So Comey invents a new category - extremely careless - and says Hillary did that. It's not charged as a crime because extremely careless is not a legal term. But it suggests to everyone that she is guilty and isn't being charged because of her status as the Democratic nominee.

This is also unfair to Hillary because it deprives her of the opportunity to rebut the allegations against her. If Comey had charged her with recklessness, she would have had an opportunity at trial to rebut those allegations. Then she could be exonerated. By implying that she committed a crime and also refusing to charge her, Comey deprived her of the opportunity to defend herself.

Basically, Comey's 2016 actions were a disaster all around.

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Jakyl25
02/27/20 2:45:32 PM
#71:


Corrik7 posted...
Show me polls where he was winning in Wisconsin pa or Michigan.

Its not polls exactly, but this is the sort of thing Rock is talking about.

This is Wisconsin.



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pxlated
02/27/20 2:46:47 PM
#72:


HeroDelTiempo17 posted...
Holy shit what a rumor

https://twitter.com/rebeccaballhaus/status/1233110606779232262?s=19

The article also mentions a NYC mayor run which seems more likely to me but what does the #YangGang say if Bloomberg VP is his play?

i'm pretty certain that would destroy whatever hope he has at a future in politics

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red sox 777
02/27/20 2:52:35 PM
#73:


Jakyl25 posted...
Its not polls exactly, but this is the sort of thing Rock is talking about.

This is Wisconsin.


The thing is it's unfair to attribute that to minor factors like the Comey letter. That is almost certainly going to be people who were leaning Republican finally coming to a decision with the election looming. It's like how evangelicals will tell you they are undecided for months - and then will nearly all vote Republican on election day, no matter what.

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LordoftheMorons
02/27/20 2:54:05 PM
#74:


Nate Silvers Comey letter analysis:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/

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Wanglicious
02/27/20 2:54:29 PM
#75:


please no.
i like yang and do agree he's the best VP choice they can have.
bloomberg would be the worst mix for him.

both men care for numbers but bloomberg does to an amoral and borderline evil way whereas yang is much more compassionate and looking for the reason. there's a thread that can connect them but it's just awful. how about yang just become mayor, wasn't that an idea floated or something.


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Jakyl25
02/27/20 2:56:57 PM
#76:


LordoftheMorons posted...
Nate Silvers Comey letter analysis:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/


Without reading this, I just want to say that of course it was not THE factor. It was just the last factor that tipped the election that should not have been that close in the first place due to other factors, many of which were unforced errors by Hillary
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pxlated
02/27/20 2:58:56 PM
#77:


wake me up when y'all are done relitigating 2016 for the billionth time

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NFUN
02/27/20 2:59:53 PM
#78:


pxlated posted...
wake me up when y'all are done relitigating 2016 for the billionth time


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red sox 777
02/27/20 3:02:03 PM
#79:


Yeah, you know what else could have cost Hillary the election, if we are going to call tipping point factors the reason the election was lost? Calling 25% of the country deplorable.

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Suprak the Stud
02/27/20 3:02:20 PM
#80:


TheRock1525 posted...
https://twitter.com/AndyShain/status/1233074240070574081?s=19

Biden could sweep SC.

SC I am begging you to just be a little cool. Not even like "super cool". Just don't give Biden ALL of the delegates. He's 150 years old. He would lose them in a phone scam.

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Corrik7
02/27/20 3:06:42 PM
#81:


red sox 777 posted...
The thing is it's unfair to attribute that to minor factors like the Comey letter. That is almost certainly going to be people who were leaning Republican finally coming to a decision with the election looming. It's like how evangelicals will tell you they are undecided for months - and then will nearly all vote Republican on election day, no matter what.
Cuz undecideds decided. Not cuz something miraculously changed.

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Wanglicious
02/27/20 3:07:44 PM
#82:


that's nonsense.
he MADE the first phone scam, he knows how it works and all the malarkey needed to make one work. it won't work on him, pal.

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Jakyl25
02/27/20 3:10:40 PM
#83:


Mr Biden, Im a corrupt Ukraine cop. We have captured your son Hunter and are holding him for a ransom of 55 delegates. Dont even bother trying to call him because we destroyed his phone.
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pxlated
02/27/20 3:11:41 PM
#84:


Wanglicious posted...
that's nonsense.
he MADE the first phone scam, he knows how it works and all the malarkey needed to make one work. it won't work on him, pal.

"hello grandma? it's Joe! I'm down in South Africa fighting apartheid and wouldn't you know it, they arrested me! I need you to wire me 5000 dollars to post bail!"

(this is a scam call setup i had to caption several times at an old job)

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Suprak the Stud
02/27/20 3:20:20 PM
#85:


Jakyl25 posted...
Mr Biden, Im a corrupt Ukraine cop. We have captured your son Hunter and are holding him for a ransom of 55 delegates. Dont even bother trying to call him because we destroyed his phone.

*Joe Biden takes his delegates out to a field and starts pushing them away*

"Go on! GET OUT OF HERE! GO ON! GO! I DON'T LOVE YOU ANYMORE!"

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HeroDelTiempo17
02/27/20 3:22:37 PM
#86:


Suprak the Stud posted...
*Joe Biden takes his delegates out to a field and starts pushing them away*

"Go on! GET OUT OF HERE! GO ON! GO! I DON'T LOVE YOU ANYMORE!"

"Vote for someone else!"

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ChaosTonyV4
02/27/20 3:24:42 PM
#87:


Suprak the Stud posted...
SC I am begging you to just be a little cool. Not even like "super cool". Just don't give Biden ALL of the delegates. He's 150 years old. He would lose them in a phone scam.



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Jakyl25
02/27/20 3:41:20 PM
#88:


HeroDelTiempo17 posted...


"Vote for someone else!"


A+
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LordoftheMorons
02/27/20 4:03:28 PM
#89:


HeroDelTiempo17 posted...
"Vote for someone else!"

I did laugh at this one

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LordoftheMorons
02/27/20 4:19:16 PM
#90:


No majority is now up to 50% on 538

I think this means that the nominee is officially generic Democrat. Trump has no chance now!

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red sox 777
02/27/20 4:22:57 PM
#91:


LordoftheMorons posted...
No majority is now up to 50% on 538

I think this means that the nominee is officially generic Democrat. Trump has no chance now!

Yes, I hope the DNC does this. Your electors will be pledged to vote for a Democrat. They'll decide which one when the Electoral College meets. Just like the founders intended!

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LordoftheMorons
02/27/20 4:28:36 PM
#92:


https://twitter.com/svdate/status/1233118406301356033?s=21

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red sox 777
02/27/20 4:31:56 PM
#93:


LordoftheMorons posted...
https://twitter.com/svdate/status/1233118406301356033?s=21

I mean, that's true. The Vice President's only official job is to preside over the Senate. But it's not like Mitch needs any help with that.

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Suprak the Stud
02/27/20 4:35:08 PM
#94:


HeroDelTiempo17 posted...
"Vote for someone else!"

It really is a shame only like ten people will see this joke because this is A++ work

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RaidenGarai
02/27/20 4:36:59 PM
#95:


HeroDelTiempo17 posted...
"Vote for someone else!"
I generally just lurk here, but I have to say that this is gold

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LordoftheMorons
02/27/20 4:45:57 PM
#96:


The Trump admin retaliated against an HHS Coronavirus whistleblower:

https://twitter.com/jjouvenal/status/1233141051239600133?s=21

She alleges that HHS sent workers without protective gear to receive Americans evacuated from Wuhan and then did not test these workers.

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red sox 777
02/27/20 5:28:25 PM
#97:


Wow, the market is down over 11% in 4 days.

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Corrik7
02/27/20 5:29:54 PM
#98:


red sox 777 posted...
Wow, the market is down over 11% in 4 days.
Monday is gonna be a hella day to buy

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KamikazePotato
02/27/20 5:32:25 PM
#99:


Lots of good South Carolina Biden polls coming out. Averages out to about a +12 lead over Sanders according to 538.

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Corrik7
02/27/20 5:33:55 PM
#100:


KamikazePotato posted...
Lots of good South Carolina Biden polls coming out. Averages out to about a +12 lead over Sanders according to 538.
Bernie released details for how he planned to pay for shit. I expect him to tank now

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