Board 8 > Coronavirus Episode 6: Return of the Jedi

(+) Yeah! (+)

Corrik7 posted...

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/11/why-a-study-showing-that-covid-19-is-everywhere-is-good-news

Did no one read this? Potentially good news.

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i got paywall'd.
fortunately archive isn't.

https://archive.is/GXjmZ


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Yeah theres been a lot of good news lately regarding a tip of the iceberg scenario.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2009316

thats a study done on pregnant women being admitted into labor and delivery in New York.

Between March 22 and April 4, 2020, a total of 215 pregnant women delivered infants at the New YorkPresbyterian Allen Hospital and Columbia University Irving Medical Center . All the women were screened on admission for symptoms of Covid-19. Four women (1.9%) had fever or other symptoms of Covid-19 on admission, and all 4 women tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 (Figure 1). Of the 211 women without symptoms, all were afebrile on admission. Nasopharyngeal swabs were obtained from 210 of the 211 women (99.5%) who did not have symptoms of Covid-19; of these women, 29 (13.7%) were positive for SARS-CoV-2. Thus, 29 of the 33 patients who were positive for SARS-CoV-2 at admission (87.9%) had no symptoms of Covid-19 at presentation.

only 3 more of those women went on to get fevers, but 2 of them were from endomyometritis infections and were fine after antibiotics.

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three of my best friends just got laid off today. we all used to work at a fairly prolific chain of used bookstores in the south who just had to cut basically all non-managerial and non-temp staff.

In regards to COVID spreading more than previously thought:

Ilive in Union City, NJ right across the river from Manhattan, and since I'm signed up for safety alert calls, I've been receiving regular messages from our mayor regarding COVID-19. The most recent one said that in a town of 60,000 people, there have already been 1,100 positive cases. A testing center did just open in town last week, so that might be boosting numbers somewhat, but that seems very high to me considering how many asymptomatic cases there are, or even symptomatic cases that don't/didn't get tested. I don't think it's unreasonable to think that when everything is said and down at least 25-33% of the entire city had/will have had COVID. Who knows what it is like elsewhere, especially in NYC.

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there has to be a bunch of asymptomatic carriers. My friend was quarantined in a house with a presumptive positive 2 year old (she had a cough and her mom tested positive) who was running around open mouth coughing on everything and after 2 weeks neither her nor any of the three other inhabitants got any symptoms. Seems almost impossible that they werent exposed but who even knows

either that or the pneumonia she randomly got at the end of January could have been covid? I dunno

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https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/14/nyregion/new-york-coronavirus-deaths.html

apparently they finally caught wind that they were undercounting.

@SavageInTheBox

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So the place I work at is having every employee take a week of unpaid vacation or PTO each month through June.

They are saying that if we dont have enough PTO (I have 3 days) or dont want to use it we can get unemployment for that week of lost pay.

I am not looking forward to trying to apply for 1 week of unemployment in May and June.

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https://twitter.com/MarkLevineNYC/status/1250170016504430595

In case anyone's paywalled for Corrik's NYT link

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Maniac64 posted...

I am not looking forward to trying to apply for 1 week of unemployment in May and June.

Its annoying but also 10-30 minutes of work for a weeks pay. Don't let your employer fuck you by using PTO take the unemployment(They are fucking you anyway).

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LordoftheMorons posted...

https://twitter.com/MarkLevineNYC/status/1250170016504430595

In case anyone's paywalled for Corrik's NYT link

This sort of thing was expected for a while based on all the data for the increase in "flu-like" non-COVID deaths, but yeah it is good to finally group them in.

The good news though is, like Corrik and Ryoko pointed out, infections could be even higher than the upper estimates were guessing. Good for two reasons: 1) death rate is likely even lower and 2) we might have a partial herd immunity when we repoen which will slow the second spike a little bit.

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Even based on the NY pregnant women numbers you wont have much of a herd immunity effect. Even if its actually the case that like 13% of people in NYC have it (based on that study) instead of 3%, you still have an R_effective thats .87 as high. Thats not totally negligible, but thats in the hardest hit city in the country. In other places then (under this assumption) you might actually have 2% with immunity instead of the .5% you detected or something; thats not gonna help you too much until things get much worse.

The real advantage of this is true is that it makes the worst case scenario better. It wont be that relevant if were successful.

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red13n posted...

Its annoying but also 10-30 minutes of work for a weeks pay. Don't let your employer fuck you by using PTO take the unemployment(They are fucking you anyway).

the problem is its basically pulling teeth trying to actually get on unemployment now

colliding posted...

the problem is its basically pulling teeth trying to actually get on unemployment now

Applying online should just be a delay in processing? Unless the website for your particular state is currently crashed(Apply at like 1am imo).

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I actually got my unemployment surprisingly easily. Glad I have it done already.


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LordoftheMorons posted...

Even based on the NY pregnant women numbers you wont have much of a herd immunity effect. Even if its actually the case that like 13% of people in NYC have it (based on that study) instead of 3%, you still have an R_effective thats .87 as high. Thats not totally negligible, but thats in the hardest hit city in the country. In other places then (under this assumption) you might actually have 2% with immunity instead of the .5% you detected or something; thats not gonna help you too much until things get much worse.

The real advantage of this is true is that it makes the worst case scenario better. It wont be that relevant if were successful.

That's fair, however, the ~16% of pregnant women who tested positive in the study only refers to those who were currently infected. It doesn't take into account anyone who might have previously contracted it and recovered, or the (most likely smaller) number who will contract it in the next several weeks before quarantine measures are lifted.

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HeroicSpiderPig posted...

That's fair, however, the ~16% of pregnant women who tested positive in the study only refers to those who were currently infected. It doesn't take into account anyone who might have previously contracted it and recovered, or the (most likely smaller) number who will contract it in the next several weeks before quarantine measures are lifted.

Another thing I'm wondering is if some of them could have picked up the virus at the hospital and if some sizable fraction of them might have been presymptomatic rather than asymptomatic. The report said that like three of them started showing symptoms during their (~2 day) stays, but I didn't see anything about following up after they were discharged.

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I applied for unemployment three weeks ago and got nothing so far

According to the CDC if youre very early in the infection then youre more likely to initially test negative. The women were all tested upon admission so I dont think if they got infected in the hospital it would show up on a test until a few days later.

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Ryokles posted...

According to the CDC if youre very early in the infection then youre more likely to initially test negative. The women were all tested upon admission so I dont think if they got infected in the hospital it would show up on a test until a few days later.

Ah good point, and makes sense (since it would take time for the virus to multiply to a detectable level). I am still wondering about more of them being presymptomatic, though. Also even if they truly are asymptomatic it seems quite likely that that would vary strongly with age (with pregnant women being younger than the average person!)

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I also finally found a site that gives state-by-state (and even county-by-county!) case/death graphs:
https://www.us-covid-tracker.com/

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I got my stimulus check last night

Straight into my student loans

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So I think my account got stimulated a little too much. It is more than I expected to say the least. Should I.. call somebody? If its a mistake I know theyll realize it so Im a little worried to even touch it but my family has been with absolutely zero money for over a week.

Lend it to me

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No no I definitely need it but Im worried theyll take it back and Ill be negative a great sum of money.

How much more did they give you?

I imagine its safe to spend $1200 at least.

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Sure it's not backpay on UE, perfect?

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Yes I checked it out and thats exactly what it was wow they just dropped in at the same time. I just assumed no way was it right.

Looks like I got my money too (which is probably gonna mostly end up going into food delivery fees since I don't particularly need extra cash and can barely cook).

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PerfectChaosZ posted...

Yes I checked it out and thats exactly what it was wow they just dropped in at the same time. I just assumed no way was it right.

My ue for the week popped in at the same time as well with the bonus 600.

Really would like clarification on if the 600 is taxable.

Leafeon13N posted...

Really would like clarification on if the 600 is taxable.

It is

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hockeydude15 posted...

It is

Thats what I thought but California failed to deduct taxes at my request.

https://www.wbur.org/commonhealth/2020/04/14/coronavirus-boston-homeless-testing

Then the clinicians realized that a cluster of the people who had come up positive were staying at Boston's Pine Street Inn. So the state made testing kits available, and just over a week ago, Health Care for the Homeless tested everyone coming into that shelter.
The results? Out of 397 people tested, 146 (36%) came up positive. But even more surprising, they weren't showing any signs of sickness.
....
Every one of these folks were asymptomatic. None of them had a fever, and none of them reported symptoms. So the usual screening tool we had been using in order to see who should be tested turned out to be essentially useless for us.
So this was stunning to us. We were not expecting that. The shelter was certainly not expecting that ... And so, asymptomatic spread of this virus, while known in the past, has always been thought to be just a small part of it. But it may be that in certain centers like shelters as it was in the cruise ship, as it might be in prisons ... and nursing homes, for example it can be a real problem. So we're struggling about what the right thing to do is.
...
The lack of testing not only the tests themselves, but the reagents that you need to do the testing has been a major national holdup, and the state feels that just as acutely as everywhere else in the nation.

this place is just down the street from my house. I can only imagine how many people are infected in my town

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There was a large outbreak at a homeless shelter in SF. Its around 10% of the citys total cases.

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Kentucky has been getting positive press on a national level for a change, so naturally a mob of imbeciles showed up at the state capitol today in order to protest during the governor's daily address to the state.

Some people....

turbopuns3 posted...

Kentucky has been getting positive press on a national level for a change, so naturally a mob of imbeciles showed up at the state capitol today in order to protest during the governor's daily address to the state.

Some people....

I just need Kentucky to stay good so that they can keep coal coming to my plant.

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It's safe to say the peak day for deaths was not the 12th right?

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Corrik7 posted...

I just need Kentucky to stay good so that they can keep coal coming to my plant.

Well, that's a whole different conversation.

I'd bet $1000 that not a single person at that protest has been close to someone who died or got dangerously ill recently.

Well...then again, these people are all morons, so nevermind.

turbopuns3 posted...

I'd bet $1000 that not a single person at that protest has been close to someone who died or got dangerously ill recently.

Ironically they probably soon will have been now
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Japan finally declaring a state of emergency. Took them long enough.

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only about 400 new cases in my country today. the netherlands drops from #11 to #13 on the list of countries with the most cases.

seems to finally be going a little better here after weeks of stability so that's nice.

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Kinglicious posted...

Japan finally declaring a state of emergency. Took them long enough.

We had a state of emergency declared last week for most of the major cities, but it's being expanded to the whole country now. Some prefectures have had double digit cases and one even has 0, so it's not surprising they hadn't had a state of emergency declared yet.

Also this doesn't do much because people can still go out freely, and the government doesn't have the power to enforce a lock down (yet, at least!) I still see people eating at restaurants, crowded bars, etc.

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So are the numbers in US trending down yet?

The rate of new cases every day is just starting to
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COVID 19 is a jerk

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I think...

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This episode is over.

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