Board 8 > Coronavirus Episode 6: Return of the Jedi

(+) Yeah! (+)

I just found out I received a payment already. But I thought the stimulus was mid April and it was $1,200. This was...a bit more. Wondering if anyone else got things early, and if I should probably call that in...

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Was it signed by Trump?
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The stimulus Direct deposit stuff is supposed to be starting this week.

You get more depending on your situation. Got kids? A wife?

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i am glad to see that our efforts are working and it seems to have put a dent in these projected death rates and models

while we will always have some idiots, most people have done their part and stayed at home so good job guys!

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Strife2 posted...

I just found out I received a payment already. But I thought the stimulus was mid April and it was $1,200. This was...a bit more. Wondering if anyone else got things early, and if I should probably call that in...

Did you file jointly with a spouse/have kids?

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No. I'm disabled, but I'm not sure how that adds an extra thousand or so when I don't joint file or have kids. I normally get $300-750 monthly, not $2000. I'm mostly freaking out, because I normally have an income limit, and they just said, "Oh, here's a deposit for way more than that..."

So Im' just like, "Uh, this doesn't sound right."

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UbhrBl8WbFY&fbclid=IwAR2u0m6AIH9BYmzS6jLgfTSGTnbW1uZOxkXReyFIABMx2kdzWB6ZT-ERJds

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Corrik7 posted...

@SavageInTheBox

Can you give us an update and let us know how you are doing?

Still feeling mostly the same

Suprak the Stud posted...

@SavageInTheBox

How do the NYC cops (and people in general) feel about De Blasio's response to this (and Cuomo's and Trump's too, I suppose)? I have a couple of friends in NYC, and their general opinion seems to be that de Blasio has done a terrible job but I don't know how generalized that is.

I'm not a fan of deblasio but I blame the citizens more than him. People in the neighborhood I work in have been going about their days like absolutely nothing has changed, hanging out on corners and walking around despite nothing being open. Hilariously though, this led to Deblasio implying that the virus is racist since they're getting infected as a result

Yeah, Seph literally bragged about doing that earlier

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Lucavi000 posted...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UbhrBl8WbFY&fbclid=IwAR2u0m6AIH9BYmzS6jLgfTSGTnbW1uZOxkXReyFIABMx2kdzWB6ZT-ERJds

He actually handled this extremely well

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Spain:

Spain numbers:
-5756 new cases (152446 total, 3.9% increase, yesterday 4.3%)
-728 deaths (15283 total, 5% increase, yesterday 5.4%)
-4144 new recoveries (52165 total, 8.6% increase)

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Seems like the extra money I received was a separate back pay situation from Socieal Security, rather than anything to do with the stimulus. Well, ok then. Solves that then.

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Yesterday was terrible, may Allah SWT guide His servants.

PA just had huge jumps in numbers. About 3.7k new cases to jump to 18,200 overall. And 98 new deaths. Was only 240 for previously.

Massive percentage increases.

Looks like those numbers combine the last 2 days so not as bad as an increase as I thought.

Still big increases.

12.5% increase in cases and 8.6% increase in deaths.

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Virginia had a 45% jump in deaths today. Hospitalization increase was virtually the same as each day over the past week, though.

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https://tinyurl.com/vw4ewtg

A Brooklyn courthouse was still packed as coronavirus spread. Judges, their staffs and lawyers are paying the price.

When one lawyer complained that social distancing guidelines werent being followed in the jam-packed Brooklyn Supreme Court courtroom, Baynes fired back.

If you dont like it, you can leave, the lawyer recalled Baynes telling her.

The courtroom session continued, and Baynes well-liked and highly regarded by courthouse regulars handled the days business with his usual lively vigor.

It was his last appearance on the bench. Two weeks later, the judge was dead of complications related to coronavirus.

Whoops.

Photos and video taken in Baynes courtroom on his last day during the last week the court operated normally show dozens of lawyers packed together in the gallery as the healthy-appearing judge presided.

There has to be 400 people, just attorneys, in that courthouse any given day," said the lawyer who argued with Baynes. "And then jurors, court officers, clerks and judges.

And yes, plenty have tested positive. Clerks, other judges, lawyers. Last excerpt:

On March 16, new trials and hearings were suspended, as were most in-person appearances at the Brooklyn courthouse. Judges and their staffs were still required to show up in court, according to the memo announcing the suspension.

When an angry clerk union rep confronted Administrative Judge Knipel about closing the building, the judge told him the order to stay open came from the higher ups.

"Judge Silver wants us to keep the courts open, the union head says Knipel told him, referring to Deputy Chief Administrative Judge of New York City George Silver.

In before lawyers sue the NY court system.

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Kinglicious posted...

https://tinyurl.com/vw4ewtg

A Brooklyn courthouse was still packed as coronavirus spread. Judges, their staffs and lawyers are paying the price.

Whoops.

And yes, plenty have tested positive. Clerks, other judges, lawyers. Last excerpt:

In before lawyers sue the NY court system.

we are in a judicial emergency in VA so really its just been bond hearings and emergency stuff in person. our drug court dockets are being done with zoom which has been interesting and hilarious

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Likely undercounting in USA the virus deaths. Mass graves being dug too uncovered by drones.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/10/nyregion/new-york-coronavirus-death-count.html

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https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article

The CDC calculates an R0 of 5.7 (95% CI 3.88.9). They posit a shorter incubation time, for reasons explained in the paper (not much shorter, by about a day). I find some of their reasoning a little flimsy but less flimsy than the previous studies, so we're getting there.

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Brayze_II posted...

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article

The CDC calculates an R0 of 5.7 (95% CI 3.88.9). They posit a shorter incubation time, for reasons explained in the paper (not much shorter, by about a day). I find some of their reasoning a little flimsy but less flimsy than the previous studies, so we're getting there.

Germany did a mass antibody study on a town. I believe it had 2% population infection but 15% of population has antibodies. They figured the cfr to be .37% based on that.

Should note it was an 800 person sample size of a 14,000 person town.

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Denmark, which is far less hard hit than Germany, did a similar antibody test and estimated an infection rate of around 3%.

But yeah, 5.7 sounds much closer to what I'd expect given the ever increasing realizations of how readily it spread while asymptomatic. It was far more viable than SARS-CoV had ever been, and yet official figures (which, granted, were established back in mid-January or so) still pegged it with a slightly lower R0 than SARS-CoV.

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Looks like coronavirus death tolls are being significantly underestimated based on NYC data:

https://twitter.com/JustinWolfers/status/1248721936504500224

Oh I guess Corrik noted this too

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There is a theory the west coast is doing so good because they already have immunity from being hit last year and that it spread to China from them.

Also another theory that there is 3 strains.

Strain A was in Wuhan and not very contagious or deadly. Strain B went to Europe. More contagious and deadly. And Strain C went east into Japan and South Korea and California and is not very deadly.

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I'm more inclined to think California is doing better due to being more spread out and not as dependent upon mass transit.

Also because they started social distancing before most other states.

These theories both seek to mitigate the Chinese governments responsibility
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CA is most likely doing better because we responded more aggressively than most states (I believe CA had the first or second statewide lockdown, and the Bay Area had the first lockdown in the country by like 4 days).

We were also fast on restaurant restrictions/bar closures/school closures etc, and in the Bay Area in particular a lot of companies implemented WFH like a week or two before the shelter in place order.

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i think cali was responding back in the rumored instances back in January, before it became a political hotmess.
i do wonder how good reporting is over there too in terms of testing.

the idea that they gave it to China is straight up propaganda.
3 strains idea also sounds like Chinese propaganda considering you don't get 40,000+ urns in Wuhan on a "non deadly strain."

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Yeah, the SF Bay was the second place to shelter because Tacoma was first. I remember because my boss saw that Tacoma was becoming a shit show and asked me to cancel his flight there, and they closed down right before then, and when I went to gather my things to work from home, they announced the shelter in place as I was headed back.

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Wanglicious posted...

i think cali was responding back in the rumored instances back in January, before it became a political hotmess.
i do wonder how good reporting is over there too in terms of testing.

the idea that they gave it to China is straight up propaganda.
3 strains idea also sounds like Chinese propaganda considering you don't get 40,000+ urns in Wuhan on a "non deadly strain."

https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/04/07/2004999117

https://metro.co.uk/2020/04/10/coronavirus-mutated-three-distinct-strains-spread-across-world-12536852/

3 strain theory

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I don't mean to be glib, but out of all the notable people to die of COVID, actress Lee Fiero has to have one of the eeriest, most prescient relations to it.

https://www.boston25news.com/news/marthas-vineyard-actress-famed-jaws-role-dies-covid-19-complications/XJVXM6COXFDB3JUPMDR6SGAH7I/

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=zQIUja-qkNY

"I just found out, that a girl got killed here last week, and you knew it! You knew there was a shark out there! You knew it was dangerous! But you let people go swimming anyway? You knew all those things! But still my boy is dead now. And there's nothing you can do about it. My boy is dead. I wanted you to know that."


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https://www.straitstimes.com/world/united-states/us-marks-record-2108-coronavirus-deaths-in-24-hours-johns-hopkins

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https://m.startribune.com/fatal-crashes-surge-despite-sharp-drop-in-traffic-across-minnesota/569473872/

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Has anyone heard from Africa?

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LordoftheMorons posted...

CA is most likely doing better because we responded more aggressively than most states (I believe CA had the first or second statewide lockdown, and the Bay Area had the first lockdown in the country by like 4 days).

We were also fast on restaurant restrictions/bar closures/school closures etc, and in the Bay Area in particular a lot of companies implemented WFH like a week or two before the shelter in place order.

Yep the second we had signs of community spread we started locking shit down. The governor and mayors of major cities are all regularly on TV giving sound advice and not downplaying the issue. Early on when we had a place like Disneyland and other theme parks trying to stay open on the lockdown there was an immediate public outcry and they shut that shit down.

People took this seriously and it shows in our numbers.

Our local stations broadcast the Governor's daily address and the mayor/public health officials of the LA area without fail. They no longer broadcast the President and I'm sure this is by design.

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https://twitter.com/brianstelter/status/1248614613668605960?s=20

I mean, this is no shit, but almost no one seems to understand this.

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The mass testing apparatus makes the most sense
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Jakyl25 posted...

The mass testing apparatus makes the most sense

Not really. It's impossible to test that many people. It would require, again, no illegal immigration, basically quarantines on all incoming flights or mass testing on planes with quarantine zones set up in case of failures, or no travel outside the country, etc etc.

It is gonna spring back up regardless.

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yeah, there's no normal at all from this position for at least a few years. we can get people hired, we can get them back to work, but then it'll explode once more. we still don't know 100% if it's seasonal. we still don't know how this will affect other supply lines - though i'm sure we're bringing back some manufacturing here. i mean, Japan's putting 2 billion into that. only a matter of time until the US does it too.

the closest thing is going to be an all of the above option, region by region.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

Looks like coronavirus death tolls are being significantly underestimated based on NYC data:

https://twitter.com/JustinWolfers/status/1248721936504500224

Oh I guess Corrik noted this too

I or any NYPD cop could have told you this weeks ago.

In 9 years as a cop, I have had maybe 10 jobs (911 call responses) that result in what we call a "DOA." These are almost exclusively people who live alone and die in their apartment and we find them a few days/weeks/months later. The process for us is to notify the precinct detective squad to come and investigate to make sure that the death isn't suspicious, then notify the medical examiner's office to basically do the same and authorize removal of the body. Then we get in touch with any family and see if there is an arrangement with a funeral home to pick up the body or if it's going to the morgue. The entire time, the room the body is in is treated as a crime scene.

99.9% of the time where someone is found unconscious and unresponsive, we will work on them until we get the faintest pulse possible and then take them to the hospital. If they die there, we don't do any of the steps I described above. In the occasions where somebody dies in their sleep and their family/roommates find them in the morning and there is nothing that can be done, we treat it like the people who live alone. We guard the body and keep all civilians away from it until the ME has a chance to examine it for foul play.

Since coronavirus started, I have gone through this process probably 50 times. 50 times in a month after 10 times in 9 years. The only difference is, we don't go in the apartment. We don't keep family or roomates away from the body. Most of the time, the ME doesn't even respond to the scene and authorizes removal over the phone. People who might have been worked on and partially revived to be removed to the hospital are left to die.

We have no fucking clue how many people are dying of coronavirus in NYC. It's a lot more than is being reported.

I had a job a few weeks ago where an 80 year old woman died. Like an hour later while we were doing paperwork/making notifications, her 40 year old grandson literally dropped dead in the same apartment

As someone who is deep in this shit, Tim, what do you think needs to be done?
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My sister had planned to move to San Francisco before this all went down, and had even signed for an apartment. She spent two weeks in LA waiting for this to cool down, and now that it's clear it won't, she and her roommate have decided to just move to San Francisco anyway. There's no way to influence them against this decision.

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Whats the specific danger in that?
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I see no problem with moving either.

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Jakyl25 posted...

As someone who is deep in this shit, Tim, what do you think needs to be done?

Depopulate cities and properly spread people out across the countries land to establish social distancing by nature and not densely populate people together to cause mass infection.

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Most deaths per million

1. San Marino: 1032
2. Spain: 350
3. Andorra: 337
4. Italy: 322
5. Belgium: 289
6. France: 202
7. Saint Martin: 187
8. Netherlands: 154
9. UK: 145
10. Switzerland: 117

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Someone said Belgium had like 365 deaths yesterday. They said to put that in perspective it would be like the United States having 10k deaths in one day. Not sure if numbers are accurate.

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That's accurate. And for comparison, if you expanded the current death rate from New York state to the whole US, there would be 13k deaths daily.

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Esuriat posted...

That's accurate. And for comparison, if you expanded the current death rate from New York state to the whole US, there would be 13k deaths daily.

I was thinking New Jersey would be as high as belgium also.

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