Board 8 > Coronavirus Episode 6: Return of the Jedi

(+) Yeah! (+)

TheRock1525 posted...

Millions were going to die. We took measures to prevent that and they seem to be working. We could have taken even further measures and prevent even more deaths.

I am interested in seeing the rates in Sweden before I'd draw that conclusion.

I have a hard time believing a seven figure death toll was ever going to happen, considering how low the global count is.

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But in either case, do you think that the Trump Administration then deserves credit for preventing millions of deaths? They did restrict travel and encouraged social distancing, after all.

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I said Id give him credit if its under 20k
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Jakyl25 posted...

I said Id give him credit if its under 20k

How did you arrive at that number? I still think we'll hit 30, but that is way short of the best-case scenario "expert" projections.

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failmask posted...

Also side note charon shut the fuck up

lmao

Is this your school project? Remember people take you more seriously if you use a sharpie.
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Nelson_Mandela posted...

How did you arrive at that number? I still think we'll hit 30, but that is way short of the best-case scenario "expert" projections.

You were saying at one point that it might not hit 20k and I said that in response
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Regardless of how we end up doing, we could have had a lot fewer deaths if Trump hadnt wasted two months without prioritizing the development and wide deployment of a reliable test and increased production of PPE. His actions now can certainly influence downward how big of a failure his response has been, but its impossible to make up for that mistake and all of the death it has caused.

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Do we have a date on when the Governments Stimulus Money might come yet? Im nearly broke and I cant imagine what people that didnt have as much cash as me have been doing. Need a more rapid response than this. Cant believe they just put everyone out of work with zero plan.

PerfectChaosZ posted...

Do we have a date on when the Governments Stimulus Money might come yet? Im nearly broke and I cant imagine what people that didnt have as much cash as me have been doing. Need a more rapid response than this. Cant believe they just put everyone out of work with zero plan.

Does the IRS have your direct deposit info? If they do then from what I'm reading it should be in the next two weeks or so. If they don't it apparently might take months.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

Regardless of how we end up doing, we could have had a lot fewer deaths if Trump hadnt wasted two months without prioritizing the development and wide deployment of a reliable test and increased production of PPE. His actions now can certainly influence downward how big of a failure his response has been, but its impossible to make up for that mistake and all of the death it has caused.

Talk about a no-win situation!

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I mean yeah, when you massively fuck up it's often impossible to get back to having done a net good job!

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Keep in mind that the current projections are based on the assumption that social distancing and lockdowns will be continued through August. They are working however, which is definitely good news.

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There's no way to objectively give Trump a pass here. As soon as the virus became even a small threat in China he should have had the CDC working around the clock to get tests/supplies stockpiled. Instead he didn't even acknowledge it was a thing until after America had confirmed cases of aerosol transmission. The failure to test is huge, and it can't all be blamed on just the CDC alone. There was a model in South Korea right there for America to emulate in case of emergency, and instead he downplayed it until it was too late. He's not the only one who downplayed it - but he's the President and should take threats seriously.

Trump is not to blame completely though. He's not the only national figure who failed, and I don't think Hillary would've done any better. It's partly American culture to blame, it's partly Trump's rhetoric. The media (all of them) shares some blame as well.

edit: also, I agree, it is way way way WAY too soon to start feeling optimistic, considering most places in the southern United States are still 2-3 weeks away from their projected peak. These are places where a larger amount of people won't or can't practice responsible social distancing.

i mean there's talks of not funding the WHO.
that's a start to getting shit done right going forward.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

I mean yeah, when you massively fuck up it's often impossible to get back to having done a net good job!

The bar must be really high if saving 2 million+ lives is a failure!

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I just personally hope that nobody wants the virus to be worse just to make Trump look bad, and I also hope people don't want the virus to not be as bad just to make Trump look good. I think we all should want this virus to be as least impactful as possible and we should all hope that our administration can assist in getting us out of this whether we like them or not.

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guffguy89 posted...

I just personally hope that nobody wants the virus to be worse just to make Trump look bad,

I have some bad news for you

Even worse...some people want the virus to be worse so that they don't look foolish for predicting things completely wrong on a gamefaqs message board

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Nelson_Mandela posted...

The bar must be really high if saving 2 million+ lives is a failure!

I think the "do nothing" death toll would actually be significantly more than that! (Probably more like 5-10 million). However, most of our current progress in containing this virus is more in spite of Trump than because of him. Governors are the ones instituting lockdowns. Trump has not done a national lockdown or even really encouraged every governor to do statewide lockdowns. Testing has improved, but still has major problems (we still need more and the turnaround time needs to be much faster; getting results back in a week is unacceptable). The federal government still does not appear to be setting up the ability to do large scale test and trace of infections (which we almost certainly need before we can safely lift the lockdowns). He's still doing a terrible job with PPE and is leaving the states to get into bidding wars instead of centralizing purchasing and distribution.

The federal recovery package is helpful, but that's mitigating the economic damage; Trump has done very little to actually stop the spread of the virus.

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I am sure he will be disappointed to be losing your vote

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great the ups driver was hacking up a lung while dropping off my package. help

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Ryokles posted...

great the ups driver was hacking up a lung while dropping off my package. help

On Facebook they said to leave the package out in the sun for 8-10 hours and you should be good to go.

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Currently at nearly 2000 deaths in just one day, that's a big jump, it's almost twice as much as yesterday.

Also apparently in south Italy, there is now wide spread rioting because nobody there have jobs anymore and that means no money which means no food. That may be what will happen here as well when money runs out, wage earners depends on their jobs to get a check to get food on the table.

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Nelson_Mandela posted...

I have some bad news for you

Even worse...some people want the virus to be worse so that they don't look foolish for predicting things completely wrong on a gamefaqs message board

So says the only guy constantly plugging how right he is all the time (while the models still predict this to surpass the flu season death totals, a critical point of the argument you had).
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v_charon posted...

the models

lol

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Nelson_Mandela posted...

lol

Yet you literally just quoted a model yesterday trying to prove how right you were.
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v_charon posted...

Yet you literally just quoted a model yesterday trying to prove how right you were.

Is that what I did?

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Were you or were you not talking about a model that was scaling down its predictions on the death total at the end of this, then flaunting "I told you so!"?

Sure is how it reads.
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guffguy89 posted...

I just personally hope that nobody wants the virus to be worse just to make Trump look bad, and I also hope people don't want the virus to not be as bad just to make Trump look good. I think we all should want this virus to be as least impactful as possible and we should all hope that our administration can assist in getting us out of this whether we like them or not.

Luckily no one wants that. Nelson_Mandela is the only one pushing any kind of agenda. Honestly this topic was much better before he entered it.

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https://twitter.com/NumbersMuncher/status/1247728619989983233

We're almost certainly also undercounting coronavirus deaths

NYT article for the first pull quote: https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/04/07/us/07reuters-health-coronavirus-fdny.html

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Waluigi1 posted...

Luckily no one wants that. Nelson_Mandela is the only one pushing any kind of agenda. Honestly this topic was much better before he entered it.

Yes the people like LotM who are obsessively seeking out bad news certainly don't have an agenda, conscious or not.

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Nelson_Mandela posted...

Yes the people like LotM who are obsessively seeking out bad news certainly don't have an agenda, conscious or not.

I'd argue that if you use the word agenda in a way that you can have one subconsciously, then everyone always has an agenda with everything and the word being used that way is useless.

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https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1247739594616868869

Spain
Numbers:
-6180 new cases (146690 total, 4.3% increase, yesterday 4%)
-757 deaths (total 14555, 5.4% increase, yesterday 5.6%)
-4813 new recoveries (total 48021, 11.1% increase)
-128 ICU hospitalizations*

Spain is also to release care home deaths in the near future. The total there (uncounted so far) is likely approaching the 4k mark alone.

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Did you guys see this? Some guy in Finland came back from the fucking dead

KinjiMuto_3 posted...

Did you guys see this? Some guy in Finland came back from the fucking dead

More likely the death was not coronavirus related or they counted the person twice.

Still funny to see.

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Zombies! Someone switched modes on Plague Inc

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Fucking hell, we're starting with zombie Vikings?

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Nelson_Mandela posted...

Yes the people like LotM who are obsessively seeking out bad news certainly don't have an agenda, conscious or not.

Hm, sure sounds like you're just making assumptions.

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I remember reading an article a while back on how evidence was showing that the number of Chinese deaths was far greater than reported due to factors such as state-issued cell phone cancellations and other figures which would indicate a lot more people than usual are dying. Presumably, most were from coronavirus.


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https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/08/829506542/after-deaths-at-home-in-nyc-officials-plan-to-count-many-as-covid-19

This seems a little alarming-- that's a pretty huge spike. I do wonder how much of it is COVID-19 vs people just being at home more often now and dying there for other reasons.

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cell phones are one measure to use but it's not reliable, there's just way too much noise.
urns was consistent though, with estimates from back in January. both match up with the supposed leak to the UK government saying it was 15-42x times worse. which isn't that hard to do considering china basically says only <3500 people died in all of china with it and it's very, very easy to put the death toll alone in Wuhan over 40k.


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Deaths from other causes are clearly accelerating as well because of this. People are avoiding treatments and not getting a portion of their proactive medical care because of fears of infection and other precautions. Wuhan would have been no different, especially with the draconian lockdown. I would imagine a very large proportion of those people really weren't technical COVID-19 deaths.

15-42x sounds like some Hong Kong propaganda numbers, though. Not that I fully believe CCP numbers, of course.

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It's a bit of a tricky thing to estimate, since more people are staying at home more deaths occurring at home for any reason are naturally going to increase.

Esuriat posted...

Deaths from other causes are clearly accelerating as well because of this. People are avoiding treatments and not getting a portion of their proactive medical care because of fears of infection and other precautions. Wuhan would have been no different, especially with the draconian lockdown. I would imagine a very large proportion of those people really weren't technical COVID-19 deaths.

This is also true, but in that case I wouldn't consider it much different than a death that was directly caused by having the virus. If someone died because the virus became so widespread then technically the virus contributed to cause of death, which still serves the point of highlighting the seriousness of the need to keep it under control.

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USA might hit 2000 deaths today.

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The Nevada numbers are a mistake right?
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v_charon posted...

The Nevada numbers are a mistake right?

If you're looking at Woldometer, then yes. They mistakenly used the number of total tests administered as the number of positive cases.

https://www.fox5vegas.com/coronavirus/dhhs-more-than-2-300-positive-covid-19-cases-71-deaths-in-ne

vada/article_ffc4718a-7817-11ea-bbd8-abeb6b8ff55e.html

(link was too long)

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Yeah it's been corrected now. That was a little alarming.
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Large disparity among the African-American community getting infected and dying from Covid-10 across the country. So many different factors at play there, especially concerning the inner city communities.

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Esuriat posted...

https://www.wbur.org/commonhealth/2020/04/03/wilmington-nursing-home-covid-19-residents

It will be interesting to follow up on this one in 7 days.

https://www.nbcboston.com/news/coronavirus/7-die-from-coronavirus-at-wilmington-nursing-home/2104753/

Only five days. I was curious about it for the number that were asymptomatic, and it appears most of them still are, but going from asymptomatic to dead in 5 days seems a little unusual.

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