Board 8 > Tekken Mafia Topic 7 - Death by Degrees

(+) Yeah! (+)

Kirby321 posted...

Hi Dumey

Noctis as Bouncer is incredibly badass. I'll believe it.

Hb targeting Lopen and IGCD checks out, too, given his attitude toward Lopen and IGCD's sheeping of him. If you're still catching up on the game, then I doubt that's something you or your scum team could've made up unless Hb was planning to claim that from the start. And those targets feel a little too on the nose for Hb to have prepared a fake claim for.

Dumey is town. Next

Uhhhh...a scumteam would have had the whole game to prepare up a fakeclaim.

Yeah, he claimed when his result was stolen

for some reason

htaeD posted...

Yes?

??

masterplum posted...

Yeah, he claimed when his result was stolen

for some reason

Ok I'm not sure where I was going with that but knowing that Lopen was claimed doesn't make me feel any better about Dumeys claim.

IfGodCouldDie posted...

??

Just wondering why you asked

htaeD posted...

Just wondering why you asked

I'm not sure. It felt right in the moment.

Leafeon13N posted...

Uhhhh...a scumteam would have had the whole game to prepare up a fakeclaim.

Right, but would a scumteam really choose Lopen and IGCD as fake targets for this role?

If Bouncer exists and it's scum aligned, knowing that you and MZero hadn't claimed until now (and MZero is still unclaimed), it'd be a risk fake claiming that role and not selecting your intended target.

So why would scum truthfully target Lopen or IGCD? Perhaps Hb was Mishima Zaibatsu and saw Lopen looking really good after the Ulti lynch and targeted him, perhaps hoping G Corp would inadvertently shoot or role thief their own. But IGCD? It's a random choice.

Also doesn't make sense for Hb/Dumey to be G Corp aligned because why not just Bounce to whoever they intended to kill? If the person is dead, any redirected actions toward them will essentially just fizzle on a dead guy.

If Hb/Dumey is scum, they'd have to be Mishima Zaibatsu. But I'm inclined to believe Hb was simply acting on impulse against Lopen and is town aligned. That feels like the more sensible explanation.

##unvote
##vote: Dumey

I don't care how pro-town that role looks; if it's too good to be true, it probably is.

Kirby is assuming a lot of things I'd love to actually believe and i still dont think i like the perspective.

Kirby321 posted...

Right, but would a scumteam really choose Lopen and IGCD as fake targets for this role?

One possible answer is the scumteam is Ulti and Wallz. Ulti has a history of not reading the game and wallz is new.

I dont think this clashes with Doctor because its one-way apparently?
But it does clash with BP unless I am missing something.

Isquen posted...

##unvote
##vote: Dumey

I don't care how pro-town that role looks; if it's too good to be true, it probably is.

Its very possible its fake, but I think its a bit early to call it fake for existing

htaeD posted...

I dont think this clashes with Doctor because its one-way apparently?
But it does clash with BP unless I am missing something.

It clashes in the same way. It would make a doctor target themselves.

Also Isquen I'm still concerned with what you have.

Well that's just a mystery for another day. I'm not outing them unless they want to be outed.

Leafeon13N posted...

One possible answer is the scumteam is Ulti and Wallz. Ulti has a history of not reading the game and wallz is new.

Hmm... Okay fair point. Though given Wallz' Star Trek game, I'd like to believe he'd be analytical enough to develop a more elaborate fake claim if he and Hb were on the same team.

That being said, there's also how that role fits into the hierarchy set by Ctes that Corrik pointed out. Bouncer can get roleblocked, but it can't get role thief'd. There's no town-sided counterplay to Bouncer other than lynching it or if the other scum team gets their strongman. Would one of the scum teams really be that stacked? I still don't think it's plausible for Hb/Dumey to be aligned with Mishima Zaibatsu, the same faction with the roleblocker.

I'm mildly concerned that you have a scum dead to rights and dont realize it, tbh.

Isquen posted...

Well that's just a mystery for another day. I'm not outing them unless they want to be outed.

My dude
The only people left to claim are Corrik and MZero, and G Corp already knows who you saw.

You might as well put the knowledge out there so that we don't lynch the dude who you're town confirming.

Kirby321 posted...

Bouncer can get roleblocked, but it can't get role thief'd

How do you know the priority here?

Kirby321 posted...

You might as well put the knowledge out there so that we don't lynch the dude who you're town confirming.

This is not a real concern.

Leafeon13N posted...

How do you know the priority here?

Post #225 in this topic, my dude. And Corrik pulled that from the rules in Topic #1

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/80402338/972657789

##unvote
##vote: Abacus

Your inactivity at this point is inexcusable. Do something or die in ignominy.

Are you all fucking ready!?!? To ignore 80% of the notes that I'm about to post!?

I'm caught up, but need a little bit of time to unwind after doing that massive catchup. I see that today there's a lot of votes on Death, which will seem pretty opposite of my catchup, so I'll need a little time to re-review the conversation today and see what I think about that. But I'm just gonna go ahead and post my catch-up notes for you all to muse over if you want.

I will give the disclaimer that I have not commented on every single post, because of expediency, but I did read everything. Toward the back half of D2 I definitely slowed down on the note taking and just internalized a lot of it to just process in my head. Sorry for poor formatting. Feel free to ask any questions on my thought on how specific events went down if you don't think you understand my perspective from the notes.

Topic 1.
Death looks okay early for mediating between Ulti/Sbell when they were going back and forth early. Knowing Ulti was scum here (as well as Wallz first post claiming he wanted to vote for scum buddy Ulti or flipped town Ben) makes it unlikely all the activity at that time was scum. This might be a bit of a weird read knowing two scum teams though.

1.293 Lea, I've replaced in, feel free to mason me. I'm not broken yet. XFD
1.350 HB (that's me! kinda!) claims Lea doesn't really seem to think Wall is scum at all. Also suspicion of Lopen at the same time for what it's worth.
1.364 Lopen Wallz ulti being paired I could believe citing the exhibit A fake as fuck comment presented by party Peaf. Good job on Lopen separating the groups pretty cleanly early on.
1.402 HB asks why Peaf and Lopen thought Corrik looked towny from his only two posts of the game. Possible Peaf/Corrik link there?

Topic 2.

I don't think it needs to be relitigated. But Sbell going after Ulti on work meta was absolutely disgusting. I think there was reasonable reason to suspect Ulti off the attitude difference Lea caught him on early without going to that extent. Hard not to read into people defending that as scummy, but that's ultimately a bias I'm going to shove away, because Lopen was one of them and I can see how that flip turned out.

2.196 Town Ben vote for Kirby, and is killed N1? Interesting.
2.200 Further expands that if Kirby is scum, Lopen is town. Not sure it works in the inverse. But the point is Ben and Kirby have history together and Ben prides himself on his ability to town clear people, so I think this is worth looking at.
2.216 Wallz makes a large post implicating Plum for his arguments around Ulti, and Ben because he's been leaning town on Kirby all game. [] If I had to guess there's probably zero or one scum here.
I think the Plum comment is innocuous and doesn't mean much, but I find Wallz commentary on Ben here fascinating. My previous thought of Wallz's Topic 1 post claiming he wanted to vote Ulti or Ben makes this a consistent argument from him, but I'm wondering if he felt spurred to defend Kirby here. Minus a point for Kirby due to association I guess.
2.229 Plum venting his frustrations in game reads as towny to me. My experience with Plum in Paper Mario as scum mates was that he was able to hold back some of his frustrations because he had the scum chat to vent in a little, and was a bit more cautious of coming into topic and giving off-hand reads about people. This post in particular just reads a lot more like I would expect from Town Plum.
2.244 Ulti votes Plum. Immediate vindication for my read.
2.264 Death gives neutral reads on Kirby and Ulti, and points out that Abacus, Isquen, Mzero, and IGCD don't have enough content to properly evaluate them. Left Corrik off this list?
2.283 Lea tries to redirect train from Ulti to Kirby. I don't think Lea is scum at this point, but if Lea is scum, opposed to Kirby, if Lea is town, opposed to Kirby.
2.387 Lopen Personally I feel Ulti trying "to catch" Lea here is a hamfisted attempt to townclear Lea and Lea is bussing Kirby and if I were to gamble I'd pin the scumteam as Ulti, HB, Plum, Kirby, Lea
Obviously I'm going to disagree with Lopen including HB there, but they had a little spat earlier with Lopen not liking how HB was dissecting his posts. I think the idea of Ulti trying to townclear Lea and a Kirby bus happening is the interesting part here. A little bit different than my previous read of Kirby vs Lea, but Lopen was also feeling some kind of dynamic here.
2.400 Ulti tries to abandon ship to Red. Ulti is not same team as Red, confirmed.

I'm giving Lopen a lot of credit on his theories as I read through since I know he's smart and has flipped town. But can't follow them blindly. He thinks HB (that's still me again! Kinda!) is scum for perspective slipping that he knows Wallz is town, when we know that's not the case. Again, two scum teams make that a weird thing to tackle, but so far I disagree with Lopen about Plum and HB looking bad, and have to take his biases into account. Also why I'm not putting full stock into him suspecting Lea for tripling down on Ulti to try and take credit for the lynch.

Topic 3
3.002 Corrik Ulti is town.
3.011 Ulti tried to fall back on uncountered town protection should not be lynched because it worked so well for him in Paper Mario. HB rightly calls him out for it.
3.031 IGCD comes in with a vote on Lopen, which looks like a soft defense of Ulti.

Peaf is kind of hard to read here even knowing the context of his flip. He was genuinely going after Wallz, so none of his posts really read super scummy. Not really associating himself with other players either, so I'm not getting a lot of reads from other players based on his interactions.

To immediately counter that thought:
3.068 Isquen shows up and expresses concern over Kirby, Lea, and then says he might want to vote Peaf. The only person I've seen suspecting Peaf at this time. Not sure what energy he was picking up on, but interesting. Likely town or opposing scum team.

3.119 Death correctly calls out Ulti's over-correction early Topic 1 again.
3.136 Wallz tries to add suspicion to Death in defense of Ulti.
3.149 IGCD goes on record not liking the Ulti lynch.
End of Day 1 thoughts on alive players.

Leaning town: Death, Isquen (very soft lean), Plum
Neutral: Abacus, Corrik, Lea (on the precipice of leaning town), Mzero (I don't even remember when Mzero voted Ulti, what the-), Red
Leaning scum: IGCD, Kirby

I would have also had strong reads on SBell, Lopen, and Wallz, but feel like it's not relevant to mention with their flips.

Well no one else seems to be in a hurry. Take your time.

Day 2
Topic 4
Isquen and Lea immediately recenter on Kirby.
Peaf also votes Kirby, wanting to keep Plum and HB in the conversation. Rule of 3?
4.020 Lopen reverses his Lea bussing Kirby thought and votes Lea instead.
Peaf with scum knowledge pushes the narrative of why Sbell would have been shot, while Plum is considering potential third party shot. Points to town Plum.
Lopen now reversed on Lea, Kirby, and HB, but still doesn't like Plum.
4.050 Lopen again bringing up him and Ben talking about the scum equity in Ulti going after town Lea Day 1. He strongly believes something is fishy there.
4.055 IGCD sheeps Lopen and votes Lea.
4.059 Kirby finds it odd that Plum thinking of third parties. Informed scum trying to bury the info like Peaf was?
4.089 Mzero tries to go after Plum for what seems like meta how to play the game reasons? Really not sure I like Mzero here and kind of feels like he's trying to find his own reason to jump on a train with Lopen after he successfully AFK'd D1 on Ulti's lynch.
4.095 Corrik It seems a bit too obvious Plum is scum atm.

I feel like I just don't see it, which is why these posts are sticking out to me like a sore thumb. I am trying to consider Plum's posts with a little more scrutiny and not just throw him in the town pile, but I haven't seen it yet.

4.101 Mzero's push on Plum about Plum's skepticism of an Ulti lynch looks more towny to me. I think Plum was right in feeling skeptical, but for reasons he didn't know yet (end of day no scum saving Ulti because of second scum team and Wallz was trying to defend him). So unfortunately Mzero's push doesn't hold water with additional context, but I do like the posts from Mzero at least.

4.108 Peaf defends IGCD's end of D1 for no real reason. Says there could be scum in Kirby, Wallz, Death, or Abacus. Maybe two, but not 3. We know that Peaf and Wallz were not aligned, did Peaf Rule of 3 here with the rest of the options?
4.112 Abacus comes in and votes Plum as well. There are now too many people suspecting Plum for it to just be scum jumping on, so definitely some town (like Lopen) suspecting him. We know Peaf was scum. Would Abacus or Mzero also jump onto that train early? Definitely like Mzero's posts and pressure more than Abacus, but something to consider.
4.120 Lea Isquen and Peaf dropped Kirby real easily.
4.130 Peaf, knowing there is two scum teams, states that it is probably not 5/17 scum who know who each other are, and throws suspicion on Kirby knowing more than is publicly known. I think this post makes it seem like Peaf and Kirby are not aligned but Peaf genuinely suspected Kirby of being on opposing scum team. This lines up with previous reads above that Kirby could be aligned with Ulti/Wallz, and opposing whatever Lea is.
4.170 Corrik claims Peaf and Lopen are town. Unfortunate record for Corrik so far.
4.185 Corrik makes up for it though with a good analysis of Ulti's D1 play. I think I almost entirely agree with everything he stated in that post other than the unfortunate lumping in of Peaf, but that can be explained by the fact that Ulti and Peaf were on opposing teams, so no foul there.
4.196 Kirby talks about Ulti/Lea dynamic from the standpoint of there only being one scum team. Have to give Kirby a point in town favor here, if Kirby is playing dumb about knowing two scum teams exist after Peaf called them out earlier, they're doing a good job of it here.
4.211 Isquen claims Watcher and that he probably has seen town power since it wasn't a kill that he watched.
Wallz posting multiple times that Isquen not claiming who visited Lea seems a bit suspect. Corrik going a little too hard on Isquen with the vote I think, but Wallz is the interesting one here.
4.298 Lopen the great flip flopper has gone back to thinking Kirby may be scum, but is also leaving Lea in there. Lists playing lazy and that scum team may be pushing soft suspicion on Kirby to try and get Godfather scanned. I don't think this is actionable, but if Kirby was lynched and flips godfather, this would be an interesting post to look back to.

I honestly have a hard time following the Isquen/Corrik stuff with Isquen's claim. It sounds like Isquen is saying he did not see Corrik visit Lea, but Corrik is saying he did? And then Lopen comes in and states that Isquen must be scum even though he scanned Red and had his action stolen? I'm not sure I follow Lopen's logic there. He is assuming Isquen was going to say he saw Lopen moving, but claimed out in front of Isquen instead of forcing Isquen to put himself in a contradictory position? I feel like Lopen could have really nailed down this situation if he was more patient and didn't claim right away. As it stands, it's still a bit of a mess.
4.339 I appreciate Red being appropriately as confused as I feel reading this.
I'm not even bothering quoting specific posts at this point. Corrik says it's apparent that Isquen is town now and is being dodgey about where he visited or not. All I take from this is there is probably no direct contradiction between Corrik and Isquen.

4.433 Red tries to recenter away from Corrik/Isquen back to Kirby/Plum/HB. Not sure Red has thrown HB into prior suspects before? Seems like an odd addition.
4.437 Red tries to clear IGCD on very flimsy logic of does scumbuddy IGCD just blank follow scum ulti onto an early pile when IGCD's gameplan has clearly been to sheep his token good player target with no consequence. Bad town clear from Red here.

Topic 5
5.050 Corrik There isn't a doctor so Isquen protecting the doctor on Lea is garbage play. The person who went to Lea is scum.
5.052 Lopen the greatest flip flopper of all time says Kirby maybe town. But also points out Red having bad takes to the previous nights' claims.
Plum claims doctor as a counter to Corrik saying no doctor can exist and people guessing that Corrik is being coy about being doctor.
A lot of fluffing about, where Corrik comes to the conclusion that we should lynch outside any claimed party for the day.
5.197 Lea has a good post about Ulti's actions not matching his claim, but Plum's actions do. If Corrik had something damning, he wouldn't be willing to let Plum play it out.
5.204 Corrik calls out Mzero for parking votes early, good eye, Corrik.
5.206 Isquen and Plum, two people I believe to be town, starting a Wallz lynch, feels good.
5.212 Lea puts out a list of Kirby/Abacus/Wallz as scum. With decent reasoning on each of them.
5.257 Scum Peaf pushes doubt on Plum being doctor.
5.301 Really don't like Kirby's Six vanillas is a lot post. This again is either displaying more informed, or just a really bad game sense in general. There is definitely room for more Vanillas in the setup at the point, and Kirby already trying to draw the line at 6? Trying to get ahead of the suspicion knowing more vanilla claims are on the way?
5.321 Plum brings up multiple scum teams as an idea? Has this idea been floated before Plum brought it up? Could be something against Plum there.
5.328 Lopen nails the flavor split immediately after the suspicion though.
5.329 Abacus sheeping onto Wallz here is odd. It's so hard to tell if Abacus' voting record is just unfortunately lucky, or scum jumping on a bus. Especially with the two scum team thing going on.
5.338 Red visibly gags at that idea of Plum suggesting two scum teams.
A lot of shuffling around of votes as day gets closer to the end. It seems like most people are of the same mind that one of the claimed vanillas should go and leave the power to resolve later.

Topic 6
Red's insistence to not claim is on brand, but I wonder if he is trying to ride his playing by his principles that he demonstrated in the last game with shooting Kanz.
Lopen picks up on this and has a back and forth with Red a little, but Red remains stubborn and doesn't claim. Ultimately this is something that Town or Scum Red probably does, but having just played scum with Red not too long ago in Paper Mario where he played this same song and dance, and thinking he's riding the high of his principles, something in my gut tells me Red could be scum waiting to claim until the end here.
6.073 Lopen votes for Lea for cycling between low handing fruit and trying to see what sticks. This is not how town Lea plays.
I was starting to get a similar vibe to this, so I'm glad Lopen mentioned it here. I have an image of Lea that she is totally willing to throw her vote onto trains that she doesn't even really believe in just to advance the game state, so being flippant with her votes isn't necessarily a scum tell in itself. But it has certainly felt like Lea isn't even trying to support pressure, and just kind of limply throwing her weight toward whatever low hanging fruit lynch people are currently entertaining. Not prepared to call it scum, but not loving D2 Lea.
6.079 Plum I will note if there are two teams Lea is definitely not clear But if there is one I feel pretty good about her
6.112 Death coming in and running defense for Kirby all of the sudden at end of day when Kirby isn't in danger of being lynched? I'm confused at this line of play.
Interestingly enough, AFTER Death runs defense for Kirby, Lea and Peaf jump on Kirby train, tying Kirby with Wallz.
A lot of messy votes slung around. But then it looks like Death signs Wallz' death certificate (buh dum, pssh) in 6.224.
6.247 IGCD has voted Death to follow Lopen but then says the death lynch doesn't make sense. I understand IGCD has stated since the beginning of the game that he is gifting his vote away, but this is a laughable moment. Moved the vote off of scum Wallz, onto Death because of Lopen.
6.260 Lea makes a last second vote to doom Wallz for sure. I give her less credit than Death here for lynching scum. The part where she seems resigned to let Wallz die for not voting in self defense, but then changes her vote last second when it can't be reacted to instead of just waiting for it to resolve normally? That vote looks very weird to me.

Whew. Thoughts on alive players after Day 2.

Town: Isquen, Plum
Leaning Town: Corrik, Death (closer to neutral than town, but still leaning.)
Neutral: Abacus, MZero
Leaning Scum: IGCD, Lea, Red
Scum: Kirby

I want to see a Kirby wall and a Dumey wall get into a cage match and see which one survives.

So two conclusions I'm coming to at the end of this is that I think a lot of people have been listing Kirby as scum this game, but Kirby keeps getting out of suspicion. With two scum teams, I think it's possible that the opposing scum team maybe did some genuine scum hunting early on and caught Kirby with town. I was upset when Han tried to invoke this against me in a previous game, but I feel like it's relevant to invoke the argument "If everyone thinks someone is scum, they're probably scum."

##Vote: Kirby

I would also like to state that I think Red has not look spotless this game, and him waiting to claim BP at the very end of the claims if he believes me to be unkillable, is definitely a scum play I could see happening. It's not a hard counter, so he could potentially back out of it if I were lynched and flip town, but that type of counter would be necessary to lead a lynch on me I think.

Also like to shout out Corrik for post 7.114 today, as I think his analysis of which potential scum would fit on each team pretty much exactly maps on to the "opposed factions" alignments that I was trying to work out during my read.

Isquen posted...

I want to see a Kirby wall and a Dumey wall get into a cage match and see which one survives.

I can only really do these type of wallposts when I'm doing ISOs, and this massive catchup was basically in that format. So me paraphrasing the game probably would lose to someone actually spewing out a wall of original text!

I know, it's endearing, not poking fun. I much prefer it to 200 one line posts, honestly.

EDumey posted...

Red's insistence to not claim is on brand, but I wonder if he is trying to ride his playing by his principles that he demonstrated in the last game with shooting Kanz.

okay this is dumb because I am always consistent with my principles.

I can understand that Red. Which is why I also think it would be consistent for you as scum to wait until the very end to claim, and then conveniently have a claim that you think is opposing to mine. Being consistent with a behavior that is something scum often do, doesn't make it less scummy when it happens.

I'm willing to drop the idea that you're doing it because you think you can get away with repeating your behavior from last game. That's not the most important to me. I mostly brought it up because Lopen keyed into the same idea as well.

Like, in a game where people are very suspicious at the Vanilla claims, it would very much benefit you to claim something like BP, especially when you can do it under the guise of countering me, rather than being pressured by votes to claim BP, a common scum fake-claim. It's just very convenient for it all to line up so well for you.

i found that write up quite helpful actually.

I like the arguments against Kirby. I think death is still a better option but I wont be mad at a Kirby lynch. I agree the 6 vanilla thing was kind of odd

I really feel like Peaf's post in 4.108 was a goldmine of info.
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/80399075/972581668

Corrik, if you're around, I'd like you to analyze that post in particular knowing Peaf's alignment, and your understanding of how Kirby is almost definitely not G-Corp.

EDumey posted...

I really feel like Peaf's post in 4.108 was a goldmine of info.
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/80399075/972581668

Corrik, if you're around, I'd like you to analyze that post in particular knowing Peaf's alignment, and your understanding of how Kirby is almost definitely not G-Corp.

I believe he is doing a true read on Kirby thinking he is scum for the other team. I believe he is also rule of 3ing with Abacus, death, and whoever else he had there and death is the scum.

I believe he elsewhere calls out 4 people together and death is the likely one again there.

[LFAQs-redacted-quote]


[LFAQs-redacted-quote]


Hmm. Peaf is too smart to defend both IGCD and Red so haphazardly if they were all on a scum team together right? Lea, what do you make of Peaf AND Red both defending IGCD separately? (Red did so in post 4.437 for the record.) Is this Town IGCD and both Peaf and Red both casually writing him off as town?

Corrik7 posted...

I believe he is doing a true read on Kirby thinking he is scum for the other team. I believe he is also rule of 3ing with Abacus, death, and whoever else he had there and death is the scum.

I believe he elsewhere calls out 4 people together and death is the likely one again there.

I'm not sure on the other one, but I made note of the beginning of Day 2, Topic 4, where Peaf lists Kirby, Plum, and HB as who he wanted to go after. I agree that it looks like Peaf was truly thinking Kirby was other team scum. I agree though, it seems pretty consistent that he keeps including Death at the edge of his range.

MZero posted...

Mokujin

mzero claim for me please

Corrik7 posted...

mzero claim for me please

you first

also I want to believe Dumey because I want to believe Noctis is in this game

MZero posted...

you first

I asked first and said please.

Who is left to claim at this point?

Corrik7 posted...

I asked first and said please.

touche

Mokujin, Town Backup. Can choose any dead town and inherit their powers. Of course, I couldn't last night because only vanillas had flipped but I was going to take Lopen's powers tonight

MZero posted...

touche

Mokujin, Town Backup. Can choose any dead town and inherit their powers. Of course, I couldn't last night because only vanillas had flipped but I was going to take Lopen's powers tonight

That's a very nice power to have.

Red would you like to finish off the mass?

Why would you take Lopen's role, Mzero? Doesn't seem like a good usage of your role.