Current Events > canada election day

(+) Yeah! (+)

Enclave posted...

It was largely strategic voting that did in the NDP.

65% of last elections ndp voters jumped ship (so far) because of strategic voting?

the_crow13 posted...

Was it actually a strong liberal campaign or did Singh just completely destroy the ndp

I think you can point to 3 major things.

1. Trump coming at Canada and PP not being strong against him AT ALL. PP came across like this hawkish tough guy as the leader of the opposition, but he was a limp wet noodle when it came to Trump. It exposed him.
2. Carney is an effective "money guy". The Liberals ran a good campaign showing PP not being a strong counter point to an aggressive American government and showing Carney as being able to handle the economy FAR BETTER than anyone else.
3. The NDP was not effective in their messaging in the least. They were not seen as a serious option at all if your concern was, "Stop the Cons". If you were mostly concerned about stopping the Conservatives, you voted Liberal. The NDP did not make themselves out to be an option for that part of the population.

Trump really did a great job.

Of sinking conservatives in Canada.

Over 99% of the votes counted, so we can make an apples to apples comparison of how the main parties did this time versus last time in terms of raw vote count:

2021
Tories: 5.7 million
Libs: 5.5 million
NDP: 3.0 million
Bloc: 1.3 million

2025
Libs: 8.3 million
Tories: 7.9 million
Bloc: 1.2 million
NDP: 1.2 million

So a big upswing in voter turnout leading to huge increases in Lib/Tory voters, a slight decline in Bloc voters, and an enormous decline in NDP voters.

I honestly think it's safe to say that if Trudeau had tried to cling on and if the NDP had elected a new leader, even with Trump there would've been enough of a vote split for a safe Tory win. Libs won thanks to Carney being way more palatable than Trudeau and the NDP being seen as a non-stater for about two million voters.

So in 2015, redistricting broke up the Carleton-Nepean riding into multiple, making Pierre Pollievre move to the specific "Carleton" riding.

Not only was that the one he lost today, but the "Nepean" side of that riding - that was the seat Mark Carney just won.

I think that's really funny.

Oh, and it looks like this is the first election that any party cleared 7 million votes cast for it, and the Libs and Tories both safely cleared that number.

the_crow13 posted...

65% of last elections ndp voters jumped ship (so far) because of strategic voting?

It was a huge factor this year, Trump is the primary cause of the NDP collapse.

Enclave posted...

It was a huge factor this year, Trump is the primary cause of the NDP collapse.

While that is true. Singh didn't help matters either.

K181 posted...

Over 99% of the votes counted, so we can make an apples to apples comparison of how the main parties did this time versus last time in terms of raw vote count:

2021
Tories: 5.7 million
Libs: 5.5 million
NDP: 3.0 million
Bloc: 1.3 million

2025
Libs: 8.3 million
Tories: 7.9 million
Bloc: 1.2 million
NDP: 1.2 million

So a big upswing in voter turnout leading to huge increases in Lib/Tory voters, a slight decline in Bloc voters, and an enormous decline in NDP voters.

I honestly think it's safe to say that if Trudeau had tried to cling on and if the NDP had elected a new leader, even with Trump there would've been enough of a vote split for a safe Tory win. Libs won thanks to Carney being way more palatable than Trudeau and the NDP being seen as a non-stater for about two million voters.

man these numbers are kinda crazy to think about. I really wonder if the NDP will be recognized as an official party anyway. Those few elected MPs might hold the balance of power too

I'm going to start donating probably $50 per month to the NDP, they're going to need it to try to rebuild for the next election. If they choose a good leader with a vision and strong union support they can recover.

Enclave posted...

I'm going to start donating probably $50 per month to the NDP, they're going to need it to try to rebuild for the next election. If they choose a good leader with a vision and strong union support they can recover.

No offense, do you want them to recover? The left not splitting seems to be why the Tories aren't about to be in power right now. Swap a couple hundred thousand votes and the Libs still have a big increase in voter turnout and the NDP still has a big crash, but the change would be the Tories in charge.

Seems like the more practical move would be to try to NDPify the Libs.

K181 posted...

No offense, do you want them to recover? The left not splitting seems to be why the Tories aren't about to be in power right now. Swap a couple hundred thousand votes and the Libs still have a big increase in voter turnout and the NDP still has a big crash, but the change would be the Tories in charge.

Seems like the more practical move would be to try to NDPify the Libs.

This is going to be fine if the cpc parties splitters between pp loyalist and reformists.

NDP voters are temporary liberal to stop the right.

K181 posted...

Seems like the more practical move would be to try to NDPify the Libs.

while i understand your point the Libs aren't going to be moving to the left under Carney.

K181 posted...

No offense, do you want them to recover? The left not splitting seems to be why the Tories aren't about to be in power right now. Swap a couple hundred thousand votes and the Libs still have a big increase in voter turnout and the NDP still has a big crash, but the change would be the Tories in charge.

Seems like the more practical move would be to try to NDPify the Libs.

I very much do want them to recover, a strong NDP is our best bet at strong worker protections. This is especially true when you see how much of the NDP vote split over to the Conservative party, the ones that split that way are the working class union people who (very mistakenly) think the Conservatives are better for the working class than the Liberals.

I think it is super interesting to see what the NDP will do. While the Libs CAN work with the Bloc to pass things, the NDP are the logical choice. They could try to excert some pressure cause what do they have to lose at this point... but I don't know if I see them doing that.

Jeff_AKA_Snoopy posted...

I think it is super interesting to see what the NDP will do. While the Libs CAN work with the Bloc to pass things, the NDP are the logical choice. They could try to excert some pressure cause what do they have to lose at this point... but I don't know if I see them doing that.

They can't afford an election right now, they need time

Jeff_AKA_Snoopy posted...

I think it is super interesting to see what the NDP will do. While the Libs CAN work with the Bloc to pass things, the NDP are the logical choice. They could try to excert some pressure cause what do they have to lose at this point... but I don't know if I see them doing that.

I think the handful of NDP MPs have to start thinking about who they want as leader now too. With 7 elected, that's a small pool.

I'm thinking Boulerice, the only surviving MP in Quebec, will take a shot at it

TheGreatEscape posted...

I think the handful of NDP MPs have to start thinking about who they want as leader now too. With 7 elected, that's a small pool.

I'm thinking Boulerice, the only surviving MP in Quebec, will take a shot at it

The leader of the party doesn't officially need to hold a seat. And we're likely to see some special elections in the next few years from a bunch of these safe-NDP seats that went conservative due to vote splitting going back to the NDP.

But also, part of the reason Jagmeet was around as long as he was is that there wasn't a ton of competition for that leader spot. It's gonna be a fun race.

Proto_Spark posted...

The leader of the party doesn't officially need to hold a seat.

yeah I know but if you want your leader to have some exposure it helps to have him sit at the commons. I really doubt they'd name an unelected leader unless someone really popular comes out of nowhere and runs for it.

TheGreatEscape posted...

yeah I know but if you want your leader to have some exposure it helps to have him sit at the commons. I really doubt they'd name an unelected leader unless someone really popular comes out of nowhere and runs for it.

I agree, but I wouldn't be surprised if one of the people from the ridings that typically go NDP run for leadership - when the vote isn't splitting could easily lead to more NDP seats and the leader getting back into the commons. And we could always get special elections triggered if some ridings are really unhappy with their NDP representative going conservative.

Its not like its helping much, I'm thinking it moves from the ~7 or so people who were elected this year to a pool of ~12-15 of people who are consistently elected outside of the very special circumstances of this election.

[LFAQs-redacted-quote]


ya looks like the libs will be 3 seats short of their majority and the NDP should still end at 7.

That's good news. The NDP are easier for the Liberals to work with than the Bloc.

Did Trump truthsoc'd about the results yet

glad canada survived a rightwing govt takeover but i find the numbers sad that it wasn't a massive rejection of the cons to begin with
next is australia wonder if they will dodge their own cons there as well

gikos posted...

glad canada survived a rightwing govt takeover but i find the numbers sad that it wasn't a massive rejection of the cons to begin with

This. Its a win, but a small win. Not surprised that my area was completely Tory Blue, but I was hoping for better from the rest of the country.

There could be enough ppl to cross the floor, Carney is quite economically centrist.
That would also put the Cons in space to restart anew without another election 8-10mos away.

gikos posted...

glad canada survived a rightwing govt takeover but i find the numbers sad that it wasn't a massive rejection of the cons to begin with
next is australia wonder if they will dodge their own cons there as well

Indeed, let's not get too overconfident. It could have easily gone the other way with a few miscalculations.

Conservatives sure seem to have strong opinions and aren't afraid to share them. It just takes people not using their bs filters properly, and boom, there's another convert.

Liberals are more private about it, knowing that one's ideology is a personal choice, and generally don't try to force it on anyone, unless another person is 100% wrong on a subject. And they generally don't want to waste time on someone whose brainrot has already kicked into 5th gear.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/terra-nova-result-1.7521466

gikos posted...

glad canada survived a rightwing govt takeover but i find the numbers sad that it wasn't a massive rejection of the cons to begin with
next is australia wonder if they will dodge their own cons there as well

Assuming the polls pan out it's 52-48 Labor's win with the question being will it be minority or majority government. The conservatives have been going hard on culture wars brainrot this week, they say their internal polling says they'll win but I suspect it actually suggests a worse defeat than the media polls.

I'm not taking anything for granted though and I'm nervous. If he wins he's going to really destroy this country.

joaquintall posted...

Indeed, let's not get too overconfident. It could have easily gone the other way with a few miscalculations.

Conservatives sure seem to have strong opinions and aren't afraid to share them. It just takes people not using their bs filters properly, and boom, there's another convert.

Liberals are more private about it, knowing that one's ideology is a personal choice, and generally don't try to force it on anyone, unless another person is 100% wrong on a subject. And they generally don't want to waste time on someone whose brainrot has already kicked into 5th gear.

I said this before but I'm very interested in the voting breakdown by demographics.

I wish the Liberals had gotten a majority so we'd have guaranteed stability, but this is the second best thing. Maybe even the best, hard to say. They and the NDP have enough seats that the Liberals can pass things with support from the Conservatives (so almost never under PP), Bloc, or NDP. I was so worried they'd be reliant on the Bloc only, which would be bad.

It was so nice seeing PP lose his seat. I want to see him gone entirely but I assume they'll make somebody quit and parachute him into a safe seat.

Oh hey, my mail in ballot showed up.

The day after it became irrelevant

And like expected, I am already seeing people scream about the election being rigged

Sir_Will posted...

I wish the Liberals had gotten a majority so we'd have guaranteed stability, but this is the second best thing. Maybe even the best, hard to say. They and the NDP have enough seats that the Liberals can pass things with support from the Conservatives (so almost never under PP), Bloc, or NDP. I was so worried they'd be reliant on the Bloc only, which would be bad.

It was so nice seeing PP lose his seat. I want to see him gone entirely but I assume they'll make somebody quit and parachute him into a safe seat.

NDP have zero dollars to play with for any near future election, let alone leaderless... they'll vote with the Liberal gov't on most everything, merely adding some public stuff like they did with dental care prior.

I can't see an election now anytime soon, Carney isn't some newfound celeb, he wants nothing more than to get to work & douse any flashy politics.

Raiden2909 posted...

And like expected, I am already seeing people scream about the election being rigged

The paper we vote on cannot be erased, even as we made 'x's with pencil.

This isn't f'ing nursery school stuff, it's national security.

Raiden2909 posted...

And like expected, I am already seeing people scream about the election being rigged

I see conservatives dooming. As in "death of Canada," and "dystopian wasteland." Any idea what they are actually expecting with a Carney government?

Edit: and P.P. conceded, perhaps they need to take the cue.

darkknight109 posted...

Anyways, I will be very interested to see what PP's fate is. On the one hand, the Conservatives had their strongest election night in a long time - even Harper didn't pull in a popular vote score that big. That would suggest there may be benefit to the Cons to keeping Poilievre around and that may save his neck.

PP lost his own seat. That would suggest that the Conservatives as a party are significantly more popular than PP himself, and that with a less extreme leader they probably would've won.

And as far as the vote total being so much higher than when Harper won? That's because there's over 5 million more Canadians now than there were in 2011.

Red_XIV posted...

PP lost his own seat. That would suggest that the Conservatives as a party are significantly more popular than PP himself, and that with a less extreme leader they probably would've won.

And as far as the vote total being so much higher than when Harper won? That's because there's over 5 million more Canadians now than there were in 2011.

Oh, I've been saying for a while now that if they still had O'Toole that it would have been a Con sweep. But he was too moderate for the Maple MAGA wing of the party so they booted him out for Poilievre.

O'Toole sucks of course but he sucked less than most Conservatives and he was trying to drag the party kicking and screaming closer to the centre and they just couldn't abide that.

Was it PP aping Trump that hurt him in particular?

Enclave posted...

Oh, I've been saying for a while now that if they still had O'Toole that it would have been a Con sweep. But he was too moderate for the Maple MAGA wing of the party so they booted him out for Poilievre.

The question is, after trying to go as far-right as possible with Poilievre and losing, will the Conservatives realize that Republicanization is a failure? They've lost 4 elections in a row to the Liberals. Surely it should be obvious that "go even further right" isn't a solution.

Red_XIV posted...

The question is, after trying to go as far-right as possible with Poilievre and losing, will the Conservatives realize that Republicanization is a failure? They've lost 4 elections in a row to the Liberals. Surely it should be obvious that "go even further right" isn't a solution.

If they are truly trying to emulate Republications then the answer is always "go further right"

Red_XIV posted...

The question is, after trying to go as far-right as possible with Poilievre and losing, will the Conservatives realize that Republicanization is a failure? They've lost 4 elections in a row to the Liberals. Surely it should be obvious that "go even further right" isn't a solution.

Well it's going to depend on what happens next. It's currently looking like the Conservatives are gearing up for a civil war within the party. The fact that Poilievre lost his seat though is definitely going to hurt him in that upcoming fight.

Enclave posted...

Well it's going to depend on what happens next. It's currently looking like the Conservatives are gearing up for a civil war within the party. The fact that Poilievre lost his seat though is definitely going to hurt him in that upcoming fight.

Would personally love to see the Conservative party break up into smaller parties to better represent the right wing, its already messy as hell with it trying to encompass the entire right wing from center right to far right, And really as much as i am glad to see P.P and the conservatives crash and burn, I would prefer not to have us move closer to a two party system where any vote that isn't liberal or Conservative be a waste

Raiden2909 posted...

Would personally love to see the Conservative party break up into smaller parties to better represent the right wing, its already messy as hell with it trying to encompass the entire right wing from center right to far right, And really as much as i am glad to see P.P and the conservatives crash and burn, I would prefer not to have us move closer to a two party system where any vote that isn't liberal or Conservative be a waste

If there's going to be a party split then the civil war is going to have to be long and bloody. I have doubts it'll be that bad but holy shit would it be nice. There's a few factions that exist in the party and it really does make sense for them to actually be 2-3 conservative parties but if they split they know their ability to win elections in Canada will be severely hampered. It's why the conservative parties merged together in the first place.

[LFAQs-redacted-quote]


This suggests to me that he will be gearing up for the next election as party leader. He can paint Carney as the bad guy who wants to look into Dumpy's offer to be the 51st state, but the remaining parties all blocked it. The conservatives will buy into it before it gets a chance to be thoroughly debunked, but the damage will be done.

Yeah, he's a two-faced weasel.

Hopefully Republicans can grow spines and boot Dumpy out before any of this comes to fruition.

You need to look at more than just his concession speech. Earlier in the night for instance after it was clear that the Liberals were going to form government? One of Poilievres close allies absolutely tore into Doug Ford while being interviewed by the CBC, basically blaming him for the loss.

That combined with Poilievre refusing to stand down even when it was looking likely that he was losing his seat? All signs of the civil war I mentioned. It's also telling that he still from what I've seen not commented on his losing his seat.

I definitely think there's going to be a power struggle between the more moderate wing of the party and the Maple MAGA wing. The real question is if it keeps happening in public like when his ally was tearing into Ford, it's stuff like that which is a good sign. The more behind the scenes it is the less likely it is to cause a serious division in the party and we absolutely want that division.

By the way, I really need to lament the state of the Conservative party when fucking Doug Ford is even somewhat representative of the more moderate wing of the party. This is why the Conservative party really should be 3 parties. You should have the Maple MAGA like Poilievre, the Doug Ford type people and then the O'Toole moderates. Them all being under one roof is just ugh.

^ I still can't listen to the guy talk! Everything about him is so phony.

If he wants to remain leader, hes going to have to win a byelection.