Board 8 > KP's (In-Depth) 2018 Contest Analysis

Topic List
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ZeldaTPLink
10/14/18 2:08:10 PM
#252:


Of course, that's assuming we don't have an anti-rally. But has there ever been an anti-rally before?
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redrocket
10/14/18 2:08:44 PM
#253:


Why is Bayonetta so much more hated than Meta Knight?
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pyresword
10/14/18 2:27:25 PM
#254:


I'm not sure this is 100% of the reason but I think it's their style of character. Meta Knight was really strong (stronger than Bayo imo), but he was good because he had a really good moveset with great frame data and range such that he could simply come out better in a large number of exchanges.

The anger-inducing part of Bayonetta is a combination of the fact that her moveset gives her very versatile movement options which allow her to play extremely safe/non-comittal and get out of most any disadvantageous situation, and she also has the capability to start zero-to-death combos in many situations if the opponent makes a mistake, which means she's very unforgiving. (These can be escaped from with DI, but it's not easy and in some percent ranges they are 50-50's no matter what, I believe). The combination of her really strong punish game and being easily the "safest" character in the game just makes her a very oppressive and frustrating presence in the metagame.

So basically if you're familiar with competitive Brawl, imagine Brawl Ice Climbers but without any of the downsides of Ice Climbers and also without Brawl Meta Knight to keep her in check. In reality Bayonetta is not getting zero-to-deaths nearly as much Ice Climbers for whom that was pretty much the entire character, but it can happen still which means she's still perceived in that fashion by the community. It's also worth mentioning that even if the opponent gets out of the full zero-to-death combo, she still has 30% to 40% or something that is guaranteed most of the time and is extremely easy to do.
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Mewtwo59
10/14/18 3:01:36 PM
#255:


Being so good while being a DLC character probably doesn't help things either. You really don't want to be seen as a pay to win character.
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charmander6000
10/14/18 3:02:16 PM
#256:


Bayonetta wasn't weak in 2013 either, if she could 60/40 her 2013 self with Smash and Bayonetta 2 Riku is going to have a hard time winning, unless you believe in a KH3 hype boost. Which is possible I guess.
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NowItsAngeTime
10/14/18 3:07:44 PM
#257:


Honestly I think the actaul problem with Bayonetta is how stupid Witch Time is

If the reward wasn't so good with the risk being low-medium at best, I think she'd be a lot more managable.

Other characters have stupid damaging throw combos and ZSS has the up screen KOs
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Hbthebattle
10/14/18 4:50:17 PM
#258:


Bayonetta is more unpopular with the Smash community than Brawl Icies and MK because Smash 4 is played competitively far more often than Brawl was.
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The Owner of FF9
10/14/18 6:41:04 PM
#259:


ExThaNemesis posted...
One thing you didn't mention for those picking Aqua is that the 2 vs. 15 thing is gonna help her because of being a bracket favorite.

After all these years and accumulated, people still base their bracket picks on seed alone? I'm sure there are some (young and newbies), but enough to be factor?
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Team Rocket Elite
10/14/18 6:44:10 PM
#260:


I mean predictors wouldn't do something like pick against Link just because Link has a low seed. But when they are faced with two unknowns they don't have much to go on except the seeding.
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The Owner of FF9
10/14/18 6:52:43 PM
#261:


Team Rocket Elite posted...
I mean predictors wouldn't do something like pick against Link just because Link has a low seed. But when they are faced with two unknowns they don't have much to go on except the seeding.

I only paid attention to the seeds in the first two contests (edit: besides NN/Legends seeding). After that it seems to me everyone realized they were nearly meaningless.
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LeonhartFour
10/14/18 9:46:01 PM
#262:


Seeding is semi-important if you think it's going to be a close match because the higher seed will almost certainly have more brackets on their side, and a decent number of people do bracket vote, at least early on. I don't think seeding really matters beyond round 1, maybe round 2. It's a useful barometer when you're looking at a fodder vs. fodder match (like Sully vs. Aya) because you can expect a lot of people to bracket vote there.

Still picking Aya though.
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ZeldaTPLink
10/15/18 11:11:48 AM
#263:


Bump
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KamikazePotato
10/15/18 6:38:48 PM
#264:


Round 2 Start! Time for some setup matches.

Division 1 Match 9
Dante vs. Lightning


https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5182-character-battle-ix-division-5-round-1-dante-vs-laharl-vs
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5222-character-battle-ix-division-9-round-1-lightning-vs-dk-vs

Yep.

Result:
Dante - 65%
Lightning - 35%

Dante has a 100% chance of winning

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Division 1 Match 10
Chun-Li vs. Ganondorf


https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5205-character-battle-ix-division-7-round-1-tifa-vs-cirno-vs-chun
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3799-chaos-division-round-2-ganondorf-vs-ken

*insert Ganon laugh sound effect*

Result:
Ganondorf - 64%
Chun-Li - 36%

Ganondorf has a 100% chance of winning

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Division 1 Match 11
Vivi vs. Aya Brea


https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3744-chaos-division-round-1-vivi-vs-donkey-kong

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/973-north-division-round-2-aya-brea-vs-donkey-kong
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5191-character-battle-ix-division-6-round-1-sora-vs-scorpion-vs

Not even in 2002 does Aya win this comparison.

Result:
Vivi - 75%
Aya Brea - 25%

Vivi has a 100% chance of winning

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Division 1 Match 12
Tidus vs. Leon


https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3765-varia-division-round-1-tidus-vs-sub-zero
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5239-character-battle-ix-division-5-round-2-shadow-vs-leon-vs

Some people will pick Tidus here and then complain that he failed them yet again. Poor guy will never catch a break.

Fact of the matter is that Tidus is completely outclassed here. Leon has been a high-midcarder-bordering-on-elite character for a while now, and that probably hasn't changed much even if Resident Evil is theoretically in decline. While he did look a bit weaker than usual in 2013, there's basically no reason for Tidus to increase in strength at this point so even at Leon's worst it'd be very hard for him to lose this.

Result:
Leon Kennedy - 55%
Tidus - 45%

Leon Kennedy has a 95% chance of winning
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LeonhartFour
10/15/18 6:44:59 PM
#265:


KamikazePotato posted...
Lightning has a 100% chance of winning


if only
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SuperNiceDog
10/15/18 7:00:44 PM
#266:


Riku > Bayonetta I'm ALL IN on your BOYYYYY.

cniPo95

srsly how is he gonna lose? look at those dreamy eyes.
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Raytan wins!
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SuperNiceDog
10/15/18 7:09:08 PM
#267:


If Riku wins I will buy 1 Riku plushy in his honor

equauK9
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Raytan wins!
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KamikazePotato
10/15/18 7:17:56 PM
#268:


Division 2 Match 9
Zero vs. Zidane


https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5250-character-battle-ix-division-9-round-2-zero-mmx-vs-cube-vs
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5184-character-battle-ix-division-5-round-1-dancin-vs-zidane-vs

Zidane is a lot more respectable then he used to be but Zero is a much bigger wall than he has any chance of climbing.

Result:
Zero - 61%
Zidane - 39%

Zero has a 100% chance of winning

--

Division 2 Match 10
Noctis vs. Wario


https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5222-character-battle-ix-division-9-round-1-lightning-vs-dk-vs
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5248-character-battle-ix-division-8-round-2-wario-vs-red-vs-wrex

Used a poll of Lightning because it's the closest comparison to Noctis we're getting.

Wario sucks. I don't think he's ever had a poll where he looked good. Lost easily to Zack despite Cecil in the poll, god SFFd into oblivion by Fox in 2007, and got stomped by Red to the point where he lost to Wrex. What kind of perennial failure loses to Wrex, anyway? Noct- er, Lightning did pretty bad in that DK poll but honestly I don't think Wario does any better. He consistently folds at the first sign of a character that people actually like. Actually, let's go full x-stats on this one:

Wario (2013c) has a strength of 21.70 against Base Link.
Lightning (2013c) has a strength of 23.02 against Base Link.
Wario47.13%
Lightning52.87%
Lightning wins with 52.87% of the vote!

That is pretty much what I expected it would be. The question is: is Noctis as strong as Lightning? I...don't know. Lightning is terrible but she does have her fans, while Noctis is more recent, less established, and honestly just has a less eye-catching design. I think he's probably close to her level level simply because FFXV was marginally better-received than FFXIII was. And I'd rather take Noctis and lose then feel stupid for betting on this and losing:

https://www.mariowiki.com/images/thumb/b/b6/SML2_-_Wario_Artwork.png/197px-SML2_-_Wario_Artwork.png

Side note: this is the first match in my original bracket so far that I've flipped on as a result of doing a writeup.

Result:
Noctis - 52%
Wario - 48%

Noctis has a 55% chance of winning
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KamikazePotato
10/15/18 7:21:33 PM
#269:


Oh right, forgot this bit:

Alternate Universe Match:
Master Hand vs. Wario


I like to keep track of how differing results early on will matter in later rounds. This is the first instance in Round 2 where it's mattered!

If Master Hand beats Noctis, take Wario. Wario may suck, but there's a Nintendo heirarchy and 'has his own series' is above 'recurring boss in Smash Bros'. If Noctis loses to Master Hand, it'll be because he was weak enough to be Kuja-tier, not because Master Hand is some hidden powerhouse. I give Wario like a 90% chance of winning if this match occurs.
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KamikazePotato
10/15/18 7:26:54 PM
#270:


Division 2 Match 11
Yoshi vs. Velvet


https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3788-jenova-division-round-1-yoshi-vs-jak
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5150-character-battle-ix-division-1-round-1-yuri-l-vs-ryu-vs-face

Moving on.

Result:
Yoshi - 74%
Velvet - 26%

Yoshi has a 100% chance of winning

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Division 2 Match 12
Pikachu vs. Kratos


https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3819-gear-division-round-2-pikachu-vs-shepard
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5249-character-battle-ix-division-9-round-2-mega-man-vs-kratos-vs

Hot take: Kratos will never be remotely as strong as he was in the past. He's in a prime position to perform respectably, what with God of War 2018 being a GotY contender, but he's still a hype-based character and GameFAQs simply doesn't get as hyped about things as we used to, especially when it comes to western properties. We're too old and jaded. And you know what tickles the funnybones of old and jaded people! Nostalgia, and boy does Pikachu have it in spades, and boy is he going to make Kratos look mediocre. This might have been an interesting match a decade ago, but things change. A lot.

Result:
Pikachu - 64%
Kratos - 36%

Pikachu has a 100% chance of winning
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LeonhartFour
10/15/18 7:30:52 PM
#271:


KamikazePotato posted...
What kind of perennial failure loses to Wrex, anyway?


CHNW
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KamikazePotato
10/15/18 7:43:43 PM
#272:


Division 3 Match 9
Sora vs. Pokemon Trainer Red


https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3832-heart-division-round-3-sora-vs-bowser
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5258-character-battle-ix-division-6-final-pikachu-vs-sora-vs-blue

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5248-character-battle-ix-division-8-round-2-wario-vs-red-vs-wrex
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5264-character-battle-ix-final-nine-samus-vs-red-vs-mega-man

This match is dangerous. Red went from going even with Ocelot in 2010 to activating beast mode in 2013. Wario may suck but 70-30ing him is really good, and look at how well he held up against Noble Niners. Meanwhile, Sora's recent claims to fame are getting punked by Bowser in a match that was supposed to be competitive, and losing to Pikachu with Pokemon Trainer Blue in the poll. That second result is just embarrassing, PokeFEAR or otherwise. Charizard got laughed at failing in a similar way, and for good reason. When you're handed an LFF victory and don't take it, you're not going to live it down for a while.

Seriously, look at how Red did in those matches. Even his Round 1 is really good:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5213-character-battle-ix-division-8-round-1-red-vs-corvo-vs

He faced fodder but getting 70% on two opponents is extremely difficult no matter how strong you are. Unlike Squirtle or Mewtwo, who needed a round or two to get going before they started going nuts, Red was killing it from the start. And to put things fully in perspective:

Sora (2013c) has a strength of 33.55 against Base Link.
Pokemon Trainer Red (2013c) has a strength of 35.52 against Base Link.
Sora47.23%
Pokemon Trainer Red52.77%
Pokemon Trainer Red wins with 52.77% of the vote!

Yup. But...with all that said, I find it difficult to go with Red even though he looked legitimately stronger in 2013. I subscribe to the theory that Pokemon is going to be less crazy than it was in 2013. I don't have a major reason for thinking so, I just get the impression that Pokemon is in a hype downswing phase due to not having anything big on the horizon (lol Let's Go Pikachu) while Sora has Kingdom Hearts 3 finally, finally within his sights. Those two things combined is enough to swing the match the other way, I think, as both characters have risen and fallen in strength rather dramatically in accordance to the state of their respective series.

Be careful when considering this match. It's worth a lot of point. Spoilers: I think whoever wins here wins the division.

Result:
Sora - 52%
Red - 48%

Sora has a 55% chance of winning

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Division 3 Match 10
Cevil vs. Big Boss


https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5214-character-battle-ix-division-8-round-1-pit-vs-wrex-vs-cecil
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5232-character-battle-ix-division-3-round-2-luigi-vs-big-boss-vs

Hope you're happy to be here, Cecil. Assuming you won in Round 1. Which you might not have.

Result:
Cecil - 32%
Big Boss - 68%

Big Boss has a 100% chance of winning
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KamikazePotato
10/15/18 7:49:10 PM
#273:


Division 3 Match 11
Alucard vs. Yuna


https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5171-character-battle-ix-division-4-round-1-alucard-vs-falcon-vs
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5204-character-battle-ix-division-7-round-1-chief-vs-yuna-vs

This is one of those matches that won't be close but won't be in doubt. Alucard has looked a half-step above Yuna for a long time and I don't see any reason for it to change. He would have to fall while Yuna stays constant, and honestly I think the reverse is much more likely. That's about all I have to say about this one - it may look close on paper but both competitors have been so consistent that it's really...not.

Result:
Alucard - 53%
Yuna - 47%

Alucard has an 80% chance of winning

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Division 3 Match 12
Kefka vs. Bomberman


https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5178-character-battle-ix-division-4-round-1-kefka-vs-zack-vs-ryu
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5200-character-battle-ix-division-7-round-1-ezio-vs-tails-vs

*insert Kefka laugh*

Result:
Kefka - 66%
Bomberman - 34%

Kefka has a 100% chance of winning
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LeonhartFour
10/15/18 7:52:40 PM
#274:


I mean Alucard has actually slowly been getting weaker over time because, well, he's old and doesn't get anything new anymore, so there's reason for him to be weaker now than he was back then
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ZenOfThunder
10/15/18 7:53:56 PM
#275:


Alucard's R1 match is 2 days before Netflix Castlevania Season 2

that could get him upwards of 6 additional votes!!!!!!

if he makes it to Round 2 it will have been out for a while and he could maybe get 10!!!!!!!!!!!!
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davidponte
10/15/18 8:00:35 PM
#276:


Yeah but votes are doubled so that could be a whopping 12 and 20!
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Lightning Strikes
10/15/18 8:05:17 PM
#277:


Okay I am only reading this now bug you're way underestimating Neku. He looked way better in 2013, dodge as it is and with good reason - he had a major port and a Kingdom Hearts game. Now he has a Switch release. He keeps getting in because he keeps being in stuff, and people love his game. He's still getting squished but I feel confident that Ganondorf isn't getting to 80%.
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OrangeCrush980
10/15/18 8:06:58 PM
#278:


KamikazePotato posted...
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5258-character-battle-ix-division-6-final-pikachu-vs-sora-vs-blue


I think that sells me on Red winning. If Sora can't beat Pikachu with Blue in the poll, then he's in trouble against Red.
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ZenOfThunder
10/15/18 8:13:32 PM
#279:


we'll see if Red gets his lame-ass Smash look
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ZeldaTPLink
10/15/18 8:15:26 PM
#280:


LeonhartFour posted...
I mean Alucard has actually slowly been getting weaker over time because, well, he's old and doesn't get anything new anymore, so there's reason for him to be weaker now than he was back then


Did Yuna get anything new?
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LeonhartFour
10/15/18 8:17:23 PM
#281:


ZeldaTPLink posted...
Did Yuna get anything new?


Square puts out a bunch of stuff with their characters in it these days. She's been in Dissidia, and she's set to be announced for NT really soon, to boot.
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NowItsAngeTime
10/15/18 8:17:56 PM
#282:


FFX + FFX-2 HD

If Mobile games actually matter she's in Record Keeper and that new mobile Dissidia
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ZenOfThunder
10/15/18 8:18:47 PM
#283:


FFX and X-2 have been ported to PS3, PS4 and Vita

they are going to be on Switch soon (at least X is, I dunno about X-2)

I think Yuna is also in Dissidia

https://www.giantbomb.com/yuna/3005-829/games/

since 2011 she has actually made pretty regular appearances every year, even if they were small ones or ports
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ZeldaTPLink
10/15/18 8:19:12 PM
#284:


Sold. At least enough to make me too lazy to change to Alucard.
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NowItsAngeTime
10/15/18 8:19:50 PM
#285:


oh yeah FFX Switch forgot about that. Wont be otu by the contest. But still very nice to have.
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LeonhartFour
10/15/18 8:20:09 PM
#286:


I mean I don't know how much they help (although Dissidia was clearly helpful to some characters) but it's still better than nothing
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Lightning Strikes
10/15/18 8:22:49 PM
#287:


A couple more thoughts as I go:

Underselling Primrose, as others said she was not in the database. She got in because that game's popular and she's easily the most popular character in it. If anything I think recency hurt her, with a little more time for exposure she'd probably have a better seed. Again, still getting squished so it doesn't matter!

Stalwart in my Kiryu pick but ready for it to blow up in my face. Yakuza has come a long way but hasn't done well in most of its (very limited) polls.

RE7 wasn't mixed, it was great! Sucked in GotY though, but it was a January release.
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The Owner of FF9
10/15/18 8:34:58 PM
#288:


Alucard was in the Netflix Castlevania show

https://vignette.wikia.nocookie.net/castlevania/images/2/21/Alucard_%28animated_series%29_-_01.jpg/revision/latest?cb=20180801070148
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ZenOfThunder
10/15/18 8:40:16 PM
#289:


*Alucard was in 5 minutes of the Netflix Castlevania show
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ZeldaTPLink
10/15/18 8:44:49 PM
#290:


Old GFaqs dude: "What is a Netflix? Is it something people play between a Final Fantasy and another?"
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NowItsAngeTime
10/15/18 8:58:08 PM
#291:


A miserable little pile of millenialism
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redrocket
10/15/18 8:58:10 PM
#292:


ZenOfThunder posted...
*Alucard was in 5 minutes of the Netflix Castlevania show


He's going to be much more prominent in season 2 though!

Netflix Castlevanina Season 2 Factor.

NCS2F
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ZenOfThunder
10/15/18 8:59:02 PM
#293:


it comes out two days AFTER his match with Peach! It won't matter unless it's a monster (lol) hit and the buzz lasts to round 2. if he gets to round 2.
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KamikazePotato
10/15/18 9:14:59 PM
#294:


LeonhartFour posted...
I mean Alucard has actually slowly been getting weaker over time because, well, he's old and doesn't get anything new anymore, so there's reason for him to be weaker now than he was back then

Alucard used to be stronger in like, the 2005 era, but he settled in around 2007 and has been about the same strength ever since.
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LeonhartFour
10/15/18 9:15:30 PM
#295:


But has he though?

Snake beat him worse in 2013 than Link beat him in 2010.
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ZenOfThunder
10/15/18 9:18:59 PM
#296:


konami family SFF
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Xeybozn
10/15/18 9:21:16 PM
#297:


Snake probably would have beaten most non-Nintendo characters worse than Link would just because of Link antivoting.
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LeonhartFour
10/15/18 9:22:46 PM
#298:


also Alucard only got 58% on Bayonetta, which I'm not sure is very good

that's about what he got on Magus in 2010

(LOL Magus)
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KamikazePotato
10/15/18 9:25:24 PM
#299:


He got the exact the exact same result on Captain Falcon (a.k.a. going even) that the 2010 stats predicted. Honestly I would chalk up his result against Snake being more about Snake beating the crap out of people sometimes than Alucard weakening. Snake wrecked everyone that year.

I could see Magus being around Bayonetta level. He is seriously in a bad spot right now.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
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LeonhartFour
10/15/18 9:28:34 PM
#300:


I mean he's projected to lose 62/38 to both Kefka and GlaDOS through Snake too

Kefka and GlaDOS were pretty good in 2013 but that still seems a bit excessive for where Alucard normally is
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Mac Arrowny
10/15/18 9:34:23 PM
#301:


redrocket posted...
ZenOfThunder posted...
*Alucard was in 5 minutes of the Netflix Castlevania show


He's going to be much more prominent in season 2 though!

Netflix Castlevanina Season 2 Factor.

NCS2F


SotN's getting ported to PS4 on the same day it comes out too!
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All the stars in the sky are waiting for you.
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