Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1318

(+) Yeah! (+)

If it was any other opponent then I'm sure that Mario would got it, but where do you go on the Internet where people care enough about Nintendo games to vote in a poll but prefer Mario over Zelda? Zelda got this.
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Yeah. Mario is still more of a household name than Link. He could beat him if the matches lasted a month imo lol

He's the Hulk Hogan of gaming
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Zylothewolf posted...

If it was any other opponent then I'm sure that Mario would got it, but where do you go on the Internet where people care enough about Nintendo games to vote in a poll but prefer Mario over Zelda? Zelda got this.

Mario has slowly gained steady percentage in the US to the point he's nearly 50-50 there now( was 53-47 after a few hours I think)

Zelda has just managed to hold so many countries in Europe is the problem
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Mario wins it seems. I expect it to be a hack since Mario is known for these things.

Okay the instant Mario brings it close, Zelda gains updates. Strange.
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raytan7585 posted...

Mario needs more shrooms.

He needs his own Dynasty Warriors game like Zelda got... Mushroom Warriors.
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Remember how I said Mega Man's win over Pikachu set a new record for smallest max lead by a character who never trailed, and how Pikachu's earlier win over Mega Man was the 24-hour record for smallest max lead by either side?

Yeah, this match could challenge both records. I don't foresee Zelda's lead ever exceeding Mega's max from his win so that record should be hers unless Mario actually takes the lead at some point. The max lead by either side in Pikachu's win was 237, which is still in Zelda's reach but her lead hasn't been in the 200s since midnight.
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The trends in yesterday's SSBU poll were pretty amusing to see.

Poll updates and trend charts - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qw1zs8X2JszpCNRsnsqPQWYvYP2T3XxlQqAjSyi2VA4/pub?gid=1717074569

The most pronounced trends came from "Yes, a physical copy", which was pretty consistent for the first 12 hours except for a small spike during the 1:00-2;00 AM hour from those returning home from a midnight release event. Then it started exploding during the second half of the poll (and dominated the final 6 hours of the poll). Even the second half explosion wasn't enough to win entire hours over "No, not buying a Switch for this game"

"Yes, the digital version" was the closest option to having consistent trends over the course of the entire poll. It did perform slightly better in the second half, but not by a huge amount.

"Not yet, being shipped" was very frontloaded, dominating the first 12 hours and then collapsing during the second half of the poll.

The last 2 options, "No, I have a Switch, not buying Ultimate" and "No, not buying a Switch for this game" did have trends of their own, but they were partially affected by Geolocation trends (both options doing better with the deep night vote). Both options did fall off during the second half of the poll as a direct result of "Yes, a physical copy" dominating the second half of the poll.
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God damn it Mario
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Well, Snake/Mario comparisons seem justified today...!

Seriously though, this is an amazing sight to see. Remember back when Zelda wasn't guaranteed to make a contest, like 2004 when she was snubbed?

The times, they are a-changin'.....
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And Pikachu barelly beat Parappa in the first contest. Now he beat a NN'er too. Fun times.
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How are the vote totals comparing right now btw? I know we got off to a slow start probably because of SSBU.
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Zelda making consistent small gains now!
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TsunamiXXVIII posted...

Remember how I said Mega Man's win over Pikachu set a new record for smallest max lead by a character who never trailed, and how Pikachu's earlier win over Mega Man was the 24-hour record for smallest max lead by either side?

Yeah, this match could challenge both records. I don't foresee Zelda's lead ever exceeding Mega's max from his win so that record should be hers unless Mario actually takes the lead at some point. The max lead by either side in Pikachu's win was 237, which is still in Zelda's reach but her lead hasn't been in the 200s since midnight.

RIP this post
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The Owner of FF9 posted...

How are the vote totals comparing right now btw? I know we got off to a slow start probably because of SSBU.

About 1200 votes ahead of Ganondorf/Mega Man at this point, and that match only finished with 25238 votes. So we'll hit 26000 votes for sure.
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LusterSoldier posted...

The Owner of FF9 posted...

How are the vote totals comparing right now btw? I know we got off to a slow start probably because of SSBU.

About 1200 votes ahead of Ganondorf/Mega Man at this point, and that match only finished with 25238 votes. So we'll hit 26000 votes for sure.

Was Ganon/MM the highest or something?
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Jesus.

I mean Zelda's looking great but she will never beat Link, so it's almost irrelevant how good she ends up looking here

Mario on the other hand is starting to really fall away and that makes Mario's chances against Samus or Snake look so much worse.
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@XIII_rocks Let us be realy, did expected anyone to beat Link? Cloud couldn't even break 40% on him. Samus and Mario would lose worse because of Hierarcy. That leaves Snake. Can he break 40% on Link?
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That's my point

This is functionally Zelda's ceiling, so if she keeps gaining on Mario then good for her but she's going to run into Link, lose, and then maybe lose again regardless of how much she goes up here.

Meanwhile, the flipside is how bad it makes Mario look if he keeps consistently losing updates and ends up losing the match by 400 or 500 or more.
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Yeah I think the only way to beat Link is that if somehow all of Link voters decide to vote for Zelda just because. Not even rallies can help because you can't rally in a match where are 2 characters from the same game and expect people to only vote for 1 of them.
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This isn't even necessarily a Zelda bandwagon. After Zelda beat Snake, she went on to underperform against Sonic. Snake would go on to put up a bigger number on Sonic.
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We have been underestimating Zelda all contest imo.

She destroys Ezio and we start writing about why Assassin's Creed is dead.

She blows The Boss out and we start calling for a MGS deboost.

She beats Squall hard and we start saying it's Squall who depowered because of KH deboost. She beats Aeris by less than Squall and we are sure of it.

She beats Snake and now we start saying Snake isn't close to #2 anymore.

She and Snake destroy Sonic and we start saying Sonic would lose to the likes of Alucard.

Turns out Snake is still close to #2, Squall is still near-elite, Aeris is legit, The Boss actually depowered less than other MGS characters, Ezio is still alright, Sonic probably still beats most non-N9 competition.... and Zelda is a fucking goddess.

Zelda still has the biggest chance against Link.
And it's almost none, but I can imagine some weird rSFF + bandwagon that would help her.

On the other hand, I can't imagine Mario, Snake or Samus having ANY way of winning.

I agree. We saw rSFF on Tifa/Sephiroth.
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Zelda is a Legend.
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zelda could probably get a tumblr rally against link just because
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Does Tumblr still has porn or it got removed alread? If it still has then there is a chance.
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tbh anyone would lose to Link so whoever ends up #2 in the x-stats is the true winner of the contest as far as I'm concerned
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Safer_777 posted...

Does Tumblr still has porn or it got removed alread? If it still has then there is a chance.

They ban it one week after that match
It could be a nice tidbit for the history books if a tumblr porn rally really takes off and make Zelda win
"If the contest started just one week later, this couldn't have happened"
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That would be the greatest highlight of all co ntests!
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i thought there was more Link porn then Zelda?
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Tumblr is banning porn? So it's shutting down then?

This contest has been brought to you by Breath of the Wild.

Kicking myself for forgetting about that game during the bracketmaking phase.
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im317 posted...

i thought there was more Link porn then Zelda?

I leave this to you to figure it out
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How fitting the Legends bracket going to come down to Link vs. Zelda lol.
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400 barrier created.
Mario isn't going to be clutching this one.

Safer_777 posted...

Does Tumblr still has porn or it got removed alread? If it still has then there is a chance.

A lot of artists have already moved away from tumblr to newgrounds/pixiv/twitter, so I would say there's less chance than usual of any kind of porn rally happening from tumblr (which I would say was already very close to 0%)
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This does feel like kind of a bandwagon run.

Link vs. Zelda in the finals is gonna make something weird happen. She'll probably get unreasonably close.
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Mario needs 7.5 per update to tie
GL
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God DAMN it, Mario.
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If there's a bandwagon involved in this run, it's a small one. Zelda's results line up well with 2013 if you extrapolate through Ramza.
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KamikazePotato posted...

Zelda's results line up well with 2013 if you extrapolate through Ramza.

lol xstats
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Does anyone here had Zelda reaching the finals by the way?
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The Owner of FF9 posted...

Was Ganon/MM the highest or something?

No, Ganondorf/Mega Man is the lowest vote total of the entire contest.
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A single guru had Zelda winning today's match and winning the tournament. That guru's name is Mr Bad Picks.
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Wait we didn't get Black Turtle reaction to Zelda > Mario yet
Black Turtle where are you
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Match CXLIII: (8) Mega Man vs. (5) Crono

Current Contest Performance

Mega Man
Lost to Pikachu, 49.89% - 50.11%
Defeated Ganondorf, 60.03% - 39.97%
Defeated Pikachu, 50.67% - 49.33%

Crono
Defeated Bowser, 54.88% - 45.12%
Lost to Cloud Strife, 43.27% - 56.73%
Defeated Bowser, 54.75% - 45.25%

Analysis

Mega Man was successfully able to get his revenge against Pikachu, winning his rematch and regaining his honor. Cronos rematch against Bowser went almost the same way it did the first time with Crono finishing only 0.13% away from his original performance. The loser of this match will arguably be the weakest Noble Nine character of the bunch, with only Sonic having something to say.

In my mind this comes down to who would you take between Bowser and Yoshi. In my head the pair are essentially equal with Bowser having the kicker should they ever meet in a rematch. Both characters have had their ups and downs over their contest history. Clouds performance against Link would suggest Crono has the advantage, but with Pikachu suffering SFF against Link it wouldnt take too much for Mega Man to pull ahead. Im still going for Crono, but I suspect this match will be close.

charmander6000s Bracket: Cloud Strife > Mega Man

charmander6000s Prediction: Crono wins, 50.72% - 49.28%




Match CXLIV: (3) Solid Snake vs. (2) Samus Aran

Current Contest Performance

Solid Snake
Lost to Zelda, 49.68% - 50.32%
Defeated Auron, 61.48% - 38.52%
Defeated Sonic the Hedgehog, 57.53% - 42.47%

Samus Aran
Defeated Tifa Lockheart, 58.93% - 41.07%
Lost to Mario, 48.58% - 51.42%
Defeated Tifa Lockheart, 58.58% - 41.42%

Analysis

With the way Zelda/Mario is going this should be a great match. On paper this means Solid Snake has the advantage, but there are other things to consider that could give Samus the victory. First, I think we have to consider Zelda potentially having a bandwagon effect. While Solid Snake has held his own since his loss to Zelda that still gives Zelda an opportunity to have gain a bandwagon since that match.

Also, if you believe in the power of rSFF then it is possible we saw it in both Zelda/Mario and Mario/Samus which would make it harder for Solid Snake to hold on to the victory. I think it is quite possible that Samus is indirectly stronger than Mario. This would give her the edge here, even if Zelda going even with Mario is her new natural strength. Overall Snake has a great chance at winning and on an unadjusted stats he would win, but I feel there are too many external factors working against him.

charmander6000s Bracket: Samus Aran > Sonic the Hedgehog

charmander6000s Prediction: Samus Aran wins, 51.63% - 48.37%
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By the way, I kept them off-radar but me and kiraamaya did put porn rallies this match
By amount of upvotes (my rallies)-

r/hentai - 524
r/futanari - 335
r/rule34 - 322
r/hentaibondage - 79
r/ahegao - 74
r/ecchi - 64
r/yuri - 52
r/zelda - 0
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Nanis23 posted...

By the way, I kept them off-radar but me and kiraamaya did put porn rallies this match
By amount of upvotes (my rallies)-

r/hentai - 524
r/futanari - 335
r/rule34 - 322
r/hentaibondage - 79
r/ahegao - 74
r/ecchi - 64
r/yuri - 52
r/zelda - 0

Of course, porn would work but r/zelda would not

Averia posted...

Nanis23 posted...

By the way, I kept them off-radar but me and kiraamaya did put porn rallies this match
By amount of upvotes (my rallies)-

r/hentai - 524
r/futanari - 335
r/rule34 - 322
r/hentaibondage - 79
r/ahegao - 74
r/ecchi - 64
r/yuri - 52
r/zelda - 0

Of course, porn would work but r/zelda would not

And I asked super nicely too
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LusterSoldier posted...

The Owner of FF9 posted...

Was Ganon/MM the highest or something?

No, Ganondorf/Mega Man is the lowest vote total of the entire contest.

So everybody's just playing Smash today.
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