Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1318

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LusterSoldier
12/08/18 8:15:36 PM
#202:


Dfy556 posted...
Yeah that pic for Snake looks like shit. Whoever picked that should be ashamed.


Ulti submitted that pic.
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The_Ctes
12/08/18 8:21:17 PM
#203:


Mario/Samus SFF is not confirmed at all. And much less is it that there was no rSFF in Tifa/Seph. Stop ignoring everything that happened.

You really think after we've seen underdogs gain bandwagons contest after contest that Zelda does not have one here? You really think the Zelda that beat Aerith is on par with the one that beat Mario? Because she isn't. She straight up beat NN'ers twice, one of them being a debated second strongest while already having crushed brackets getting there. She's bandwagoned hard.

Mario would easily beat Snake too. It's a shame we can't get that confirmed.
You get some really messed up numbers if you assume Mario/Samus is the only wonky match.
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KamikazePotato
12/08/18 8:21:52 PM
#204:


LusterSoldier posted...
It could have even been higher than 450 rallied votes, because removing 450 votes from Zelda would give Zelda 52.40% with anonymous users (Zelda had 48.82% with registered users). We would still have a fairly large split of about 3.5% between registered and anonymous users even with 450 votes removed from Zelda.

Samus/Mario had a 3.25% voter split difference, so none of this is out of the realm of possibility. Mario does very well with registered voters.
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paulg235
12/08/18 8:22:34 PM
#205:


Dfy556 posted...
KamikazePotato posted...
MFTKcnL

Does look a bit wonky.


Yeah that pic for Snake looks like shit. Whoever picked that should be ashamed.


That Snake pic wouldn't really be so bad if his head was in the center of the pic where you could see Snake's face when viewing by mobile. I more blame Allen on slecting it and how strict he can be at times sticking to a pic format than Ulti (though he should've known better and considered how match pics would look on phones given how long he's been picsmithing).
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haloiscoolisbak
12/08/18 8:23:28 PM
#206:


I wouldn't be opposed to making next contest require an account to vote
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Averia
12/08/18 8:27:22 PM
#207:


haloiscoolisbak posted...
I wouldn't be opposed to making next contest require an account to vote


The votals are already bad enough !
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haloiscoolisbak
12/08/18 8:32:04 PM
#208:


Averia posted...
haloiscoolisbak posted...
I wouldn't be opposed to making next contest require an account to vote


The votals are already bad enough !


I was kidding, but votals don't bother me at all.

10k votes still makes for an interesting analysis of user preferences. It's still decent sample size. It would just really streamline the bracket making process. Nobody would have been forced to back Monika and Waluigi making the final out of rally fear

Just weighing up heirachies, x stats and subtle trends. Sounds fun
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paulg235
12/08/18 8:33:16 PM
#209:


And while I am on the subject of pics, That Mega Man pic looks awesome. Credits to the picsmiths, there.
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LeonhartFour
12/08/18 8:33:27 PM
#210:


Zelda 50.00%
Solid Snake 49.68%
Mario 49.09%
Samus Aran 47.70%
*Sonic the Hedgehog 43.55%
Sonic the Hedgehog 42.16%
Sephiroth 40.01%
*Auron 39.79%
Tifa Lockhart 39.17%
Mega Man X 39.04%
Auron 38.52%
Luigi 38.10%
Aerith Gainsborough 37.81%
*Geralt 37.29%
Squall Leonhart 36.68%
*Bayonetta 36.63%
Geralt 36.10%
Fox McCloud 35.77%
*Simon Belmont 35.66%
Bayonetta 35.46%
*Vincent Valentine 35.17%
*Pac-Man 35.12%
*Ryu Hayabusa 35.09%
Simon Belmont 34.52%
*Sub-Zero 34.55%
Vincent Valentine 34.05%
Pac-Man 34.00%
Ryu Hayabusa 33.97%
*Magus 33.85%
Sub-Zero 33.35%
Jill Valentine 32.83%
Mewtwo 32.83%
*Rosalina 32.79%
Magus 32.77%
Waluigi 32.19%
Ryu 31.80%
Rosalina 31.75%
Amaterasu 30.91%
Captain Toad 30.26%
The Boss 29.30%
Frog 29.25%
Shovel Knight 28.70%
Captain Falcon 28.06%
Lara Croft 27.87%
*Lucina 27.50%
Lucina 26.62%
Garrus Vakarian 26.39%
*Riku 26.08%
Ramza Beoulve 26.06%
*Shulk 25.79%
Metal Sonic 25.48%
Riku 25.25%
Shulk 24.97%
Ezio Auditore da Firenze 24.67%
Revolver Ocelot 24.66%
GlaDOS 24.63%
King Dedede 24.42%
Albert Wesker 23.78%
*Claire Redfield 23.25%
Miles Tails Prower 23.13%
Claire Redfield 22.59%
Richter Belmont 22.23%
KOS-MOS 22.21%
*Joker/Ren Amamiya 21.58%
Commander Shepard 21.28%
Geno 21.00%
Joker/Ren Amamiya 20.89%
King K. Rool 20.75%
Master Chief 20.60%
D. Va 20.37%
Ellie 20.23%
*Sans 20.11%
Lloyd Irving 20.07%
Nathan Drake 20.02%
Sans 19.47%
Aloy 19.18%
Aqua 18.93%
Metal Man 17.90%
Hat Kid 17.69%
Miles Edgeworth 17.17%
Isabelle 15.11%
Monokuma 13.82%
Quiet 13.59%
Goro Majima 12.76%
Draven 7.33%

Based off of the Mario/Samus direct match. Will do a set based on Tifa/Sephiroth next.
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Yuri_LowelI
12/08/18 8:34:51 PM
#211:


Holy Shit Samus is out to get Dat ass of Mario

Does anyone take samus in a rematch now?

Also Zelda being bandwagoned is confirmed
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Averia
12/08/18 8:37:42 PM
#212:


The worst part is that Mario is still probably going to beat Samus.
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Lopen
12/08/18 8:55:12 PM
#213:


haloiscoolisbak posted...
I wouldn't be opposed to making next contest require an account to vote


Better let's ban registered users from voting
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Averia
12/08/18 8:56:28 PM
#214:


Lopen posted...
haloiscoolisbak posted...
I wouldn't be opposed to making next contest require an account to vote


Better let's ban registered users from voting


How about 3 different brackets with the results from both , registered and outside ?
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haloiscoolisbak
12/08/18 8:58:06 PM
#215:


Averia posted...
Lopen posted...
haloiscoolisbak posted...
I wouldn't be opposed to making next contest require an account to vote


Better let's ban registered users from voting


How about 3 different brackets with the results from both , registered and outside ?


How about a requirement you must have a min amount of board 8 posts to vote
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Link versus Cloud
12/08/18 9:00:00 PM
#216:


LeonhartFour posted...
Zelda 50.00%
Solid Snake 49.68%
Mario 49.09%
Samus Aran 47.70%
*Sonic the Hedgehog 43.55%
Sonic the Hedgehog 42.16%


Rofl, so loser's Snake is going to be projected to lose to Sonic based on today right?
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Yuri_LowelI
12/08/18 9:03:57 PM
#217:


Averia posted...
The worst part is that Mario is still probably going to beat Samus.


I just can't see it. I think Mario is Done. For the entire tournament after yesterday. Plus Smash will help Samus through.

We all want Samus to win becaue Samus/Zelda and Samus/Cloud is a far more interesting Contest.
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Yuri_LowelI
12/08/18 9:11:38 PM
#218:


Link versus Cloud posted...
LeonhartFour posted...
Zelda 50.00%
Solid Snake 49.68%
Mario 49.09%
Samus Aran 47.70%
*Sonic the Hedgehog 43.55%
Sonic the Hedgehog 42.16%


Rofl, so loser's Snake is going to be projected to lose to Sonic based on today right?


Sonic is lucky he didnt face Samus tbh. That would have been ugly.
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red sox 777
12/08/18 9:11:54 PM
#219:


Uh, Crono. You can start cutting now...
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#220
Post #220 was unavailable or deleted.
TsunamiXXVIII
12/08/18 9:12:16 PM
#221:


1.66% on initial brackets, 6.88% on second chance brackets.

The former figure is #3 among 1v1 matches (behind the last two Undertale matches), tied for #7 (with L-Block in the semifinals in 2007) all-time. The latter figure would itself be tied for #17 among 1v1s (with Brawl in the GotD semifinals).

Yes,that means that this was still considered less surprising than Draven > Link.
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Safer_777
12/08/18 9:15:31 PM
#222:


Wait a minute. More people had Draven beating Link than Zelda going to the finals?
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creativename
12/08/18 9:17:58 PM
#223:


Wow Samus. Very disappointing performance by Snake here.

Yuri_LowelI posted...
Holy Shit Samus is out to get Dat ass of Mario

Does anyone take samus in a rematch now?

Also Zelda being bandwagoned is confirmed

How is a Zelda bandwagon confirmed? This could just be Mario getting more rSFF than we figured and maybe pic factor.

Not that Im ruling a bandwagon out. I just dont believe its confirmed.

Did she face Mario with a ZSS pic? Maybe theres an outside chance she could win with a ZSS pic.

People should submit a lot of hawt ZSS pics if they want a better match.

haloiscoolisbak posted...
Averia posted...
Lopen posted...
haloiscoolisbak posted...
I wouldn't be opposed to making next contest require an account to vote


Better let's ban registered users from voting


How about 3 different brackets with the results from both , registered and outside ?


How about a requirement you must have a min amount of board 8 posts to vote

How about a requirement you must be me personally to vote? >_>
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snake_5036
12/08/18 9:19:14 PM
#224:


How about we just ban voting and turn this into an authoritarian website where SBAllen determines the winner
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Haste_2
12/08/18 9:22:23 PM
#225:


If Samus ends with 56%:

Tifa and MMX are projected to beat Sonic with 54.56%
Luigi's projected to beat Vincent with 62.28%
Mewtwo's projected to beat Auron with 50.46%
Snake is projected to beat Tifa with 53.27%

I could see Tifa and MMX being slightly above Sonic, but not by THAT much....

Come on, Mega Man. Keep extending that lead! I want to see Mega Man vs. Cloud (even if Cloud will win easily).
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_SecretSquirrel
12/08/18 9:27:06 PM
#226:


snake_5036 posted...
How about we just ban voting and turn this into an authoritarian website where SBAllen determines the winner

Final Fantasy IV wins everything.
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LeonhartFour
12/08/18 9:28:19 PM
#227:


Samus Aran 50.00%
Zelda 48.94%
Solid Snake 48.63%
Mario 48.05%
Sonic the Hedgehog 42.63%
Tifa Lockhart 41.07%
Mega Man X 40.92%
Luigi 39.95%
Sephiroth 39.16%
Auron 38.95%
Aerith Gainsborough 37.01%
Geralt 36.50%
Squall Leonhart 35.90%
Bayonetta 35.85%
Fox McCloud 35.01%
Simon Belmont 34.90%
Mewtwo 34.42%
Vincent Valentine 34.42%
Pac-Man 34.38%
Ryu Hayabusa 34.35%
Sub-Zero 33.82%
Magus 33.13%
Jill Valentine 32.13%
Rosalina 32.09%
Waluigi 31.51%
Ryu 31.13%
Frog 30.66%
Amaterasu 30.25%
Captain Toad 29.62%
The Boss 28.68%
Shovel Knight 28.09%
Captain Falcon 27.47%
Lara Croft 27.28%
Lucina 26.92%
Revolver Ocelot 25.86%
Garrus Vakarian 25.83%
GlaDOS 25.82%
King Dedede 25.60%
Riku 25.53%
Ramza Beoulve 25.51%
Shulk 25.24%
Metal Sonic 24.94%
Miles Tails Prower 24.25%
Ezio Auditore da Firenze 24.15%
Albert Wesker 23.28%
Claire Redfield 22.76%
Geno 22.02%
Richter Belmont 21.76%
KOS-MOS 21.74%
Master Chief 21.59%
Joker/Ren Amamiya 21.12%
Nathan Drake 20.99%
Commander Shepard 20.82%
King K. Rool 20.31%
D. Va 19.94%
Ellie 19.81%
Sans 19.68%
Lloyd Irving 19.64%
Aloy 18.77%
Aqua 18.53%
Miles Edgeworth 18.01%
Metal Man 17.52%
Hat Kid 17.31%
Isabelle 15.84%
Monokuma 14.49%
Goro Majima 13.38%
Quiet 13.30%
Draven 7.18%

Pic sabotage confirmed
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Janus5k
12/08/18 9:28:49 PM
#228:


_SecretSquirrel posted...
snake_5036 posted...
How about we just ban voting and turn this into an authoritarian website where SBAllen determines the winner

Final Fantasy IV wins everything.

Cecil somehow still loses.
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im317
12/08/18 9:30:53 PM
#229:


Meg Man over 46% in the UK. i know Crono is also weak in the UK but still, the result from Australia is more in line with what i expected under 38%.
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#230
Post #230 was unavailable or deleted.
Yuri_LowelI
12/08/18 9:56:44 PM
#231:


im317 posted...
Meg Man over 46% in the UK. i know Crono is also weak in the UK but still, the result from Australia is more in line with what i expected under 38%.


You cant take up % seriously because the poll started at midnight.
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Yuri_LowelI
12/08/18 10:01:12 PM
#232:


Haste_2 posted...
If Samus ends with 56%:

Tifa and MMX are projected to beat Sonic with 54.56%
Luigi's projected to beat Vincent with 62.28%
Mewtwo's projected to beat Auron with 50.46%
Snake is projected to beat Tifa with 53.27%

I could see Tifa and MMX being slightly above Sonic, but not by THAT much....

Come on, Mega Man. Keep extending that lead! I want to see Mega Man vs. Cloud (even if Cloud will win easily).


I dont like MM but I voted MM because no one wants to see Cloud Crono again.

MM cloud would be a closer match and will give cloud a good test before samus/Mario match.
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iGenesis
12/08/18 10:03:54 PM
#233:


@Team_Rocket_Elite 2 people jumped ahead of me on the leaderboard so some people did get it right in the 330+ range.
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red sox 777
12/08/18 10:07:50 PM
#234:


That was a really bad 3rd hour for Crono. The thing keeping his hopes alive is that with the low votals, hour to hour variance of the percentages is much higher than before. Gotta hope MM has had good variance these first 3 hours.
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LeonhartFour
12/08/18 10:17:53 PM
#235:


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red sox 777
12/08/18 10:21:00 PM
#236:


3 consecutive updates above 55% for Crono. Let's go night vote.
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Yuri_LowelI
12/08/18 10:27:12 PM
#237:


Stop cutting crono. Face the inevitable.
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_SecretSquirrel
12/08/18 10:37:52 PM
#238:


Crono with the 55% in the UK. It's hard to believe Mega Man can be this trash with the Euro vote.
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ShatteredElysium
12/08/18 10:43:05 PM
#239:


snake_5036 posted...
How about we just ban voting and turn this into an authoritarian website where SBAllen determines the winner


Gonna make Oracle a lot easier when the results are all 100-0!
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LusterSoldier
12/08/18 10:45:55 PM
#240:


Legends and Loser Bracket, Round 3 and later

Zelda vs. Mario
Registered Vote Result:
Zelda - 4200 (48.82%)
Mario - 4403 (51.18%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Zelda - 5333 (54.59%)
Mario - 4436 (45.41%)

Mario won the registered users, but Zelda did close to 6% better with anonymous users. Some of that was from the hentai rallies, but I could still see Zelda doing at least 3% better with anonymous users without any rallies, based on the splits in the first Samus/Mario match.

Extra info and past results - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1O1QuDMeK4VhHOia7bdBgtVp_F3kRTnGkkjtR0zRyudw/pub
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snake_5036
12/08/18 10:46:39 PM
#241:


ShatteredElysium posted...
snake_5036 posted...
How about we just ban voting and turn this into an authoritarian website where SBAllen determines the winner


Gonna make Oracle a lot easier when the results are all 100-0!

The new Oracle challenge is predicting what time SBAllen casts his vote.
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Jman_maximum
12/08/18 10:47:39 PM
#242:


so far this Crono match has been following the first megaman vs Pikachu almost exactly

i imagine Megaman will lose the lead later on in the europe vote, but i also think Crono will have a harder time holding it than Pikachu, so for now Megaman is the favorite.
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TsunamiXXVIII
12/08/18 10:48:31 PM
#243:


Safer_777 posted...
Wait a minute. More people had Draven beating Link than Zelda going to the finals?


No, the opposite of that.
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LusterSoldier
12/08/18 10:51:09 PM
#244:


creativename posted...
Did she face Mario with a ZSS pic? Maybe theres an outside chance she could win with a ZSS pic.

People should submit a lot of hawt ZSS pics if they want a better match.


The Samus/Mario match used sprite pictures. Samus does have a good sprite that is recognizable, but Mario is perhaps the king of sprites by having the most iconic sprites in video games. I think Samus has a good chance of doing better in a rematch that won't have sprites.
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HaRRicH
12/08/18 10:56:31 PM
#245:


Before this contest, Crono was the first one to embarrass the Noble Nine every contest.

This contest, Mega Man was the first one to embarrass the Noble Nine. He redeemed himself in a rematch though, and redeeming himself prevented Crono from his opportunity to redeem himself against Pikachu for his handicapped loss in 2013 (who wasn't even the first Pokemon to defeat him, but he might not ever face Missingno again).

If Crono can't get his chance to redeem himself against Pikachu or Pokemon in general like he did against Vincent, he'll just have to die trying to redeem himself against the robot boy who prevented his redemption.

Blast his face back through time, Mega Man.
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Wasssup Now
12/08/18 11:03:16 PM
#246:


I love hentai rallies being the explanation for upsets. Hentai rallies are the nanomachines of this contest.
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Nanis23
12/08/18 11:21:08 PM
#247:


So Mega Man is going to lose
Can someone put up a rally on his reddit? Like the one that was put up against Tifa
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red sox 777
12/08/18 11:22:33 PM
#248:


Megaman still has a big lead, he's definitely the favorite yup yup, nothing to see here folks.
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RockMFR
12/08/18 11:23:53 PM
#249:


Who has more hentai - Mega Man or Crono?
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Team Rocket Elite
12/08/18 11:25:13 PM
#250:


"Wouldn't it be funny if Crono lost another match to a rally?"

Leave the guy alone already. He's suffered enough. >_>
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Jman_maximum
12/08/18 11:27:13 PM
#251:


theres been a rally topic in megaman reddit since the start of the match actually
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