Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1318

(+) Yeah! (+)

creativename posted...

Nanis23 posted...

Wait we didn't get Black Turtle reaction to Zelda > Mario yet
Black Turtle where are you

Nanis23 posted...

By the way, I kept them off-radar but me and kiraamaya did put porn rallies this match
By amount of upvotes (my rallies)-

r/hentai - 524
r/futanari - 335
r/rule34 - 322
r/hentaibondage - 79
r/ahegao - 74
r/ecchi - 64
r/yuri - 52
r/zelda - 0

@BlAcK_TuRtLe must be so proud.

At this point the contest is already fucked so who cares. At least Zelda showed that she was on Mario's level when she rallies the win, Tifa was never going to beat X.
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Megaman by the hour:

20:00 | 51.31%
21:00 | 50.85%
22:00 | 53.46%
23:00 | 48.96%
24:00 | 45.54%
01:00 | 47.64%
02:00 | 52.85%
03:00 | 54.87%
04:00 | 47.28%
05:00 | 51.84%
06:00 | 46.26%
07:00 | 47.96%
08:00 | 50.00%

With the poll starting at 7 PM instead of midnight, the dead zone has become really really dead. Crono and Megaman combined failed to bring in 700 votes during the 6-7 hour, even with the registered user bonus.
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Averia posted...

LinkMarioSamus posted...

At least now we KNOW that Zelda caught a bandwagon.

I think she has to have caught it against Mario.
Because her Snake and Sonic performances were pretty similar.

Yes that's precisely what I mean.
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Every time I check the result, somehow it's when Mega Man lead is the lowest
I need to stop doing that
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Edit; scratch that, i looked wrong...Megaman was ahead by 37 votes by this point against Pikachu in their first match

this is still mostly following those trends.

its gonna end very close. right now Crono is projected to win by like 40 votes if it keeps going according to those trends

Jman_maximum posted...

Edit; scratch that, i looked wrong...Megaman was ahead by 37 votes by this point against Pikachu in their first match

this is still mostly following those trends.

its gonna end very close. right now Crono is projected to win by like 40 votes if it keeps going according to those trends

Except for one glaring difference, Crono doesn't have nearly the same day vote as Pokemon
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you're right, but the rest of the match has basically followed suit despite the fact Crono's trends for europe vote, night vote and the start of the match should all have been different from Pikachu's

Also Mega Man will just rally if it is close at the end so Crono is in bad shape.
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@XIII_rocks what do you have Mega Man doing for the rest of the contest?
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Winning today and losing to Cloud
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Don't count out Facebook rallies for Crono, he's gonna get tens of votes from those!
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Not_Wylvane posted...

Don't count out Facebook rallies for Crono, he's gonna get tens of votes from those!

That sounds like sarcasm, but didn't someone here made a succesful Crono rally on his Facebook group in the past?
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Zelda began to pull away from Mario about this time fwiw
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The effect of the Facebook group rally has been too small to detect so we don't really know how big it is. Based on registered users alone, Chrono Trigger was going to kill unrallied SSBM. Also, according to The Show, the people on that Facebook group are unhappy with the GameFAQs contest spam.
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...or, uh, not
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Pre-contest I thought Mega Man was more likely to beat Cloud than lose to Crono. Guess I was fooled by Mega Man's strong showing in 2013.

He was the only Noble Niner not to lose to an outsider in 2013, but then became the first to do so this year.
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In the past, a long long time ago (10 years), Crono and Frog were able to fairly consistently rally about 300 votes in the last hour if needed using old, non social media, methods. Stuff like people contacting individuals on AIM. I wouldn't count on that today.
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AIM? There were people that used that to rally? Damn!
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Megaman by the hour:

20:00 | 51.31%
21:00 | 50.85%
22:00 | 53.46%
23:00 | 48.96%
24:00 | 45.54%
01:00 | 47.64%
02:00 | 52.85%
03:00 | 54.87%
04:00 | 47.28%
05:00 | 51.84%
06:00 | 46.26%
07:00 | 47.96%
08:00 | 50.00%
09:00 | 50.30%
10:00 | 51.83%
11:00 | 49.02%

Vote intake is starting to pick back up, as the slowest comeback ever grinds onwards.
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We have one-third of the match left, and Crono's quota stands at 0.99 votes per update.

Based on last half-hour: Megaman wins by 157.
Based on last hour: Crono wins by 112.
Based on last 2 hours: Megaman wins by 145.
Based on last 3 hours: Megaman wins by 105.
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Based on the last 6 hours: Crono wins by 29.
Based on the last 12 hours: Megaman wins by 9.
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So basically still anyone's game
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I don't think that Snake picture is an especially good look for him. Even if you're not on mobile where his head gets cut off, some of his facial features (especially his eyes) just...don't seem to quite be there so you don't actually miss much! That would make sense if it was MGS1 Snake but he seems to have a beard so I don't think it is?
i
The hype of ZSS seems a little silly. I could maybe sorta buy almost any (good) 3D model of Samus being marginally better than any sprites of her, though.
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Megaman by the hour:

20:00 | 51.31%
21:00 | 50.85%
22:00 | 53.46%
23:00 | 48.96%
24:00 | 45.54%
01:00 | 47.64%
02:00 | 52.85%
03:00 | 54.87%
04:00 | 47.28%
05:00 | 51.84%
06:00 | 46.26%
07:00 | 47.96%
08:00 | 50.00%
09:00 | 50.30%
10:00 | 51.83%
11:00 | 49.02%
12:00 | 47.52%

One more hour like the last one, Crono, and this match will be evened up.
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Mega Man, what are you doing?
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We're living in a Bizarro world where Solid Shit may have hurt Snake less than a 3D model pic.
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Yeah it's already late morning in US and Mega Man doesn't pick up...it's bad
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what kind of trends/vote totals do we see on Saturday-Sunday matches?
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MM has the whole smash hype train behind him and he still cant beat Crono??

crono would have best his ass had this poll taken place a few weeks earlier.
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KamikazePotato posted...

We're living in a Bizarro world where Solid Shit may have hurt Snake less than a 3D model pic.

Or samus is just ridiculously strong now.
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Crono going to take the lead soon.
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Zelda pushed forth her magic, and the heavy doors to the throne room opened. She had just defeated the one who had occupied the seat for the past 7 years, the King of the Multiverse, Mario. By right of conquest, the throne was hers. But she knew that the real king was out there somewhere. 7 years ago, Link had simply disappeared, telling no one of his whereabouts, not even Zelda.

At first, Mario dared not to sit on the great throne, and had built a smaller seat to sit on beside it. He called himself regent for the King only, then. But as the weeks turned to years and Link did not return, Mario decided it was worth the risk, and proclaimed himself the new king, Link having by all appearances abdicated his rule. Mario had sat in the great throne for 5 years now, hearing petitions and receiving the submission of the representatives of the worlds subject to the kingdom.

Zelda considered sitting in the great chair herself. She was a princess by birth, she had been born and raised to rule. She held the Triforce of Wisdom, and with it she would lead the multiverse into a new glorious era of prosperity and peace. Zelda thought about it for a minute, and moved on. She could not sit there. She remembered.

Instead, Zelda summoned the royal orchestra. She took up the conductor's baton, and the band played. Across all the realms, the music echoed, a petition and an invitation. There would be no peace, no prosperity, no golden age. In place of these, there would be power, unlimited power, a pair of boots stamping in the faces of the peoples of all the realms - forever.

Veni, veni, venias
Ne me mori facias...

Soon, the King would return. And Justice would be done.
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Megaman by the hour:

20:00 | 51.31%
21:00 | 50.85%
22:00 | 53.46%
23:00 | 48.96%
24:00 | 45.54%
01:00 | 47.64%
02:00 | 52.85%
03:00 | 54.87%
04:00 | 47.28%
05:00 | 51.84%
06:00 | 46.26%
07:00 | 47.96%
08:00 | 50.00%
09:00 | 50.30%
10:00 | 51.83%
11:00 | 49.02%
12:00 | 47.52%
13:00 | 48.09%

One more hour?
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AxemRedRanger posted...

I don't think that Snake picture is an especially good look for him. Even if you're not on mobile where his head gets cut off, some of his facial features (especially his eyes) just...don't seem to quite be there so you don't actually miss much! That would make sense if it was MGS1 Snake but he seems to have a beard so I don't think it is?

The hype of ZSS seems a little silly. I could maybe sorta buy almost any (good) 3D model of Samus being marginally better than any sprites of her, though.

Snake's pic is from The Twin Snakes right? That could explain something...

At least now we have an idea how much Zelda "overperformed" against Mario.
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Leaning Crono atm to take this. He's been slowly, slowly chipping away for a while now.
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Oh, so the winner of Crono/Megaman gets to face Cloud immediately, without a break. I guess that's probably a good thing, since this match is close? It's going to take a lot of Cloud voters deciding he's had his shot at Link and wanting to give someone else a try to flip that 56/44 result.
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If "you had your chance" was a factor that mattered Mega Man is probably winning a lot more easily
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Lopen posted...

If "you had your chance" was a factor that mattered Mega Man is probably winning a lot more easily

But Megaman also lost to Pikachu, so he had his chance too. But I'm not sure the people who care about that look into results beyond the ones that matter to the winner of the contest. So that means the matches of Link, Cloud, Snake, and bandwagon/rally characters.
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Well I mean Mega Man vs Cloud is a new match Crono vs Cloud is not. Pikachu is pretty irrelevant here.
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I mean, people are just thinking in terms of, who can beat Link. So Crono and Megaman have been off their radar so far, as neither of them was considered to have a chance. But now Cloud has failed.
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People who care enough to strategize bringing down Link probably care enough to strategize bringing down Cloud (who is almost as hated as Link on his own merits) because he can't beat Link. I doubt many do
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BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

At this point the contest is already f***** so who cares. At least Zelda showed that she was on Mario's level when she rallies the win, Tifa was never going to beat X.

Give it up. Being bitter for this long cant be good for your mental health.

Shit guys.

Here we fucking
Go
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I have to say this result Samus is putting on Snake is one of the most confusing ones we've had so far. It just spits on the face of stats.

Before the match I had this notion that we had 5 characters kind of tied at #2 (Mario, Zelda, Snake, Samus and Cloud). They could beat each other in different orders but the stats were so close you could easily attribute it to SFF and rSFF.

Now Samus is beating Snake by nearly 57%. She's one or two tiers above him. What explains this?

Pic factor? But if not even Solid Shit could kill Snake does this (admitely bad) pic do such a big difference?

Zelda bandwagon? Would put Zelda at Snake's level and mario/Samus above. But have we ever had bandwagons grow so fast?

Insane rSFF between Mario and Samus? Like Samus is actually a tier above everyone else but when she faces Mario she folds like paper? Look, I believe in herarchy, but even then, hierarchy hasn't been THAT strong with the other characters.

What gives?

Smash just came out and she's taking all his Nintendo strength would be my guess
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I've heard this theory but I have a hard time thinking Smash would boost one or two characters to the sky while ignoring the rest who are also on Smash. It sounds too random.

We've had Smash games and Smash trailers since ever did the fact that some voters start to play it make them fall in love with Zelda and Samus all of a sudden? What the hell?

Aaaagghhagahahahh
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What if Smash coming out hurt Snake because everyone who was hype about him being in Smash is too busy playing Smash

That sounds ridiculous but our votals did drop a bit when it released
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ZeldaTPLink posted...

Zelda bandwagon? Would put Zelda at Snake's level and mario/Samus above. But have we ever had bandwagons grow so fast?

This along with perhaps Zelda rSFFing Mario a litte bit is my best bet. The bandwagon is there for sure, beating Noble Niners in top 16 and top 8 while already having crushed brackets before that is huge. I don't think it's unreasonle at all.

I'm surprised that almost no one has mentioned Zelda/Mario rSFF as a possibility, but I guess most people want to see Samus as #2. It makes sense to me, because Zelda is from the more popular franchise, but I don't think it's certain. I do think it's at least just as likely as Mario/Samus rSFF though.
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Snake likely boosted in matches independent of Nintendo but he's facing a core N character

Since his major boost(s), Snake has never had a good run against Nintendo characters. He has always beaten the likes of Seph, Sonic, Cloud (in 4-ways). And like I said earlier, in 06 a Smash-announcement-boosted Snake still lost handily to Samus after running through Megaman, Sonic and Crono (indirectly). This is basically the same thing happening I would wager.
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