Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1318

(+) Yeah! (+)

those updates were megaman spiking insanely btw, not crono dropping

started happening when Crono was about to take the lead too..pretty weird.

Jman_maximum posted...

those updates were megaman spiking insanely btw, not crono dropping

started happening when Crono was about to take the lead too..pretty weird.

Can a rally for once help me lol
---

I was saying in the Discord that it's weird how MM/Crono have only gone one on one once before this! It feels like such a classic matchup somehow.
---

red sox 777 posted...

Just gave up 70 votes in 30 minutes ugh. This is not the time to let up on the gas Crono!

Why do you want crono to win? So cloud can beat him by double digits again next round?
---

Next to Phoenix Wright Crono is the hero of gamefaqs
---

Blargh, Crono's vote intake has collapsed. I think it's because he sucks at Europe.
---

Megaman by the hour:

20:00 | 51.31%
21:00 | 50.85%
22:00 | 53.46%
23:00 | 48.96%
24:00 | 45.54%
01:00 | 47.64%
02:00 | 52.85%

I think this is probably just the heightened variance we have from having only 20k real votes per match....but man, this hourly chart looks weird.
---

red sox 777 posted...

Megaman by the hour:

20:00 | 51.31%
21:00 | 50.85%
22:00 | 53.46%
23:00 | 48.96%
24:00 | 45.54%
01:00 | 47.64%
02:00 | 52.85%

I think this is probably just the heightened variance we have from having only 20k real votes per match....but man, this hourly chart looks weird.

---

red sox 777 posted...

Megaman by the hour:

20:00 | 51.31%
21:00 | 50.85%
22:00 | 53.46%
23:00 | 48.96%
24:00 | 45.54%
01:00 | 47.64%
02:00 | 52.85%

I think this is probably just the heightened variance we have from having only 20k real votes per match....but man, this hourly chart looks weird.

Uh
---

Crono's done. Mega Man might end up looking pretty good by the end of this.
---

Mega Man's U.S. percentage has been on a huge rise since Crono almost took the lead while Crono seems to be solidly winning most of Europe. Whether it's a rally or weird trend shift, I think that's what's killing Crono here.
---

These updates don't look like a rally. Crono's just getting no votes.
---

I am seriously rooting for Europe to wake up to save Crono. Never thought I'd be saying that.
---

MM has 56% in California for what it's worth.
---

So here's me desperately grabbing hope for Mario tomorrow

In 2006 Solid Snake gained strength because of Smash, beat Sonic and MM handily as a result and then died a death to Samus.

Since then he's obviously become a much stronger force but one vulnerable to Nintendo and one who is without a key, impressive win over Nintendo characters. He beat Samus in the 2013 final but on the back of a big rally in an attempt to rival Draven. Even Samus' VA betrayed her that day.

So basically, if he's part of the hierarchy, he's pretty low on it.

In that way, this match mirrors 2006. Smash releasing in the last couple of days is key, just like Snake boosting based on the trailer, handily beating Sonic, Crono (indirectly) and MM but losing equally handily to Samus is key.

Only hole is that is Snake's resistance to SFF in the 06 Battle Royale but with such a wide field Snake's hardcore base as well as his bandwagon power presumably helped him through.

IDK just desperate stuff off the top of my head but the tl;dr here is that Smash changes everything which we all knew already I guess
---

You don't need to grab for hope for Mario.

Samus is the big underdog and while she has the hype train and this destruction of Snake, IT'S FREAKING MARIO has never failed him against her.
---

I know but

I'm scared
---

You should be.

The Queen has been disrespected, and she is taking no prisoners.
---

Smausfear
---

Smaus Fear Rising: Revengence
---

Samus beating Mario is the only remaining hope for this contest imhotbqh
---

LeonhartFour posted...

Samus beating Mario is the only remaining hope for this contest imhotbqh

No, its getting mega man or cloud to the grand finals. All Nintendo characters need to be ejected from the contest, the sooner the better.
---

Please please please let us get ZSS vs. Mario.

That would make the match so much more interesting, I think.

Though maybe it not being sprites would be enough to boost her a bit, along with lower vote totals and people wanting to flip the result.

red sox 777 posted...

WarThaNemesis2 posted...

haloiscoolisbak posted...

WarThaNemesis2 posted...

XIII_rocks posted...

Damn I thought once Mario dropped down the guru was more or less mine

But Samus is really gonna kill this tomorrow isn't she

I think there's a very real chance Samus/Link is the Grand Final.

We've yet to see Cloud in action against Samus or Mario though

I'm not sure Cloud beats Snake, to be honest. That Link match was something else.

If Cloud can't beat Snake, Samus is looking close to Link in strength.

Hmm good point.

I still feel like Snake should be favored though.

Maybe the Losers bracket is just weird, as maybe people dont take it as seriously. Also lower vote totals.

Also Smash might have an effect.

Especially if the vote totals would naturally be even lower, and theres a disproportionate number of Smash fans.

Snake might have some bizarre kryptonite weakness to Samus too.

I just find it hard to believe Cloud is so much beyond Snake, which makes Samus too close to Link.

XIII_rocks posted...

Part of me does feel as though this is deja vu with Samus/Mario

Maybe it's just wishful thinking but Samus > Mario has been hyped every damn time they've been set to face off. Could it not just be that Samus can't beat Mario? But is maybe indirectly the #2 character?

Who was hyping Samus over Mario earlier this contest...? That one was supposed to be a given.

Moltar and EC have been hyping Samus > Mario indirectly since.....2007? 2005? I got on that bandwagon around 2008. Absolutely no one was hyping Samus > Mario directly until she went and put up 48.5% against him.
---

Idk I feel like I saw a few posts before this one. No idea though
---

If Link got a boost anywhere near Zelda's boost, Cloud's 39% is not at all bad, considering what happened to Sephiroth. Zelda has never been worth more than 33% or so on Link before, and now she's supposed to be over 40%? Easier for me to believe that Mario is under 40% against Link indirectly, as he has been in almost every year, and Snake is below 40% on Link also due to Snake falling and Link boosting.
---

I feel like people have a kind of blindness with Link. On the one hand, they rant about how he's invincible and will never ever be beaten and will utterly destroy everyone in his path.....but then when it comes to percentages, they don't expect him to beat his competition as badly as he's actually done in the past.

Now, I know I don't have great credibility this year because I was calling for Cloud to get mid-40s on Link, but 1) that was a hope-based prediction that wasn't terribly serious, and 2) lots of other people also predicted Cloud to get mid-40s on Link. The main reasoning for that was, it's Link vs. Cloud, and that's never been a blowout before. Which is fine, but Sephiroth has never been demolished by a 2nd tier Nintendo character either, so this is really quite a different story from 2010, where Link telegraphed signs of weakness for 3 rounds and FFVII, while faltering, didn't get blown out of the water like this year.
---

Megaman by the hour:

20:00 | 51.31%
21:00 | 50.85%
22:00 | 53.46%
23:00 | 48.96%
24:00 | 45.54%
01:00 | 47.64%
02:00 | 52.85%
03:00 | 54.87%

Megaman records his best hour of the match so far from 2 to 3. It's past 8 AM in the UK now, 9 AM on the continent, so hopefully Europe will start waking up soon. At least it's Sunday morning and people are probably sleeping in.
---

red sox 777 posted...

If Link got a boost anywhere near Zelda's boost, Cloud's 39% is not at all bad, considering what happened to Sephiroth. Zelda has never been worth more than 33% or so on Link before, and now she's supposed to be over 40%? Easier for me to believe that Mario is under 40% against Link indirectly, as he has been in almost every year, and Snake is below 40% on Link also due to Snake falling and Link boosting.

Well obviously theres no way Link has boosted anything like Zelda, thats impossible.

I question very much if hes boosted at all. Maybe a little bit from the last few contests. Though I dont think hes at his peak.

But I think hes been very consistent across years, outside of anti-votes.

He's probably anti voted less than in 2010 since it's been so long since he's won a contest, and he is probably stronger since the Legend of Zelda series as a whole is more relevant, but I doubt it's been some wild boost.

And now Crono is back
Those trends make no sense
---

Megaman by the hour:

20:00 | 51.31%
21:00 | 50.85%
22:00 | 53.46%
23:00 | 48.96%
24:00 | 45.54%
01:00 | 47.64%
02:00 | 52.85%
03:00 | 54.87%
04:00 | 47.28%

Now that's more like it. But we lost a lot of ground in those 2 hours from 1 to 3. Now comes the dead zone in North America.
---

Stop voting for Megaman k plz thx
---

And now MM got a 60 vote update
At this hour

What
---

He had 50 the update before
---

So I just woke up. MM/Crono match is the same as back when the match started. As for Snake/Samus I dind't expected that. Is Samus that strong? Also does that means that Tifa can beat Snake? No way.
---

Megaman by the hour:

20:00 | 51.31%
21:00 | 50.85%
22:00 | 53.46%
23:00 | 48.96%
24:00 | 45.54%
01:00 | 47.64%
02:00 | 52.85%
03:00 | 54.87%
04:00 | 47.28%
05:00 | 51.84%

Crono's European vote sucks too.
---

red sox 777 posted...

Megaman by the hour:

20:00 | 51.31%
21:00 | 50.85%
22:00 | 53.46%
23:00 | 48.96%
24:00 | 45.54%
01:00 | 47.64%
02:00 | 52.85%
03:00 | 54.87%
04:00 | 47.28%
05:00 | 51.84%

Crono's European vote sucks too.

It doesn't make sense though. Crono is winning in every European country basically. People have to vote for one or them when they go to vote
---

I have never seen anything like this
Win win win lose lose lose win win lose win? What?
And it's not like he lose or wins those hours by a small amount or something, it's drastic
---

Clearly someone must be porno-rallying for Samus and all the offsite voters are too busy yanking it to learn what a Chrono Trigger is.
---

Nanis23 posted...

I have never seen anything like this
Win win win lose lose lose win win lose win? What?
And it's not like he lose or wins those hours by a small amount or something, it's drastic

We've never had vote totals this low. When the two of them are only bringing in 800 votes an hour combined (and it's actually only 2/3 that because of the registered user bonus) you're going to see some big percentage swings just from random variation.
---

Megaman by the hour:

20:00 | 51.31%
21:00 | 50.85%
22:00 | 53.46%
23:00 | 48.96%
24:00 | 45.54%
01:00 | 47.64%
02:00 | 52.85%
03:00 | 54.87%
04:00 | 47.28%
05:00 | 51.84%
06:00 | 46.26%

I really wanted to see Crono in the lead before going to bed. Looks like that might be a fool's errand.
---

I'm pretty sure Crono's not taking the lead at all. With these votals he'll need two or three more good hours just to bring it even.
---

Logience posted...

What's @Nanis23 's Reddit account?

-deleted-
It shows NSFW so I can't link it
@Logience
---

FinalFantasyVll posted...

Can someone reccomend me what I should have Yuri put in his sig?

Never Doubt Big Hentai
---

Mega Man just defeated Hard Man and absorbed his power, that's why voters were voting Mega like crazy.
---

Also Mega Man really needs to learn how to defend against lightning attacks.
---

At least now we KNOW that Zelda caught a bandwagon.
---

haloiscoolisbak posted...

BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

Surprised Crono is this close to MM. Think Mega Man has this though, Crono isn't particularly know for his day vote, and is one of the weaker characters in Europe

You can literally view the map and see Crono dominating in Europe. His lead will hit at least 300 dude

Hey look, yet another person who has no idea what they're talking about ignoring established trends and past results.
---

LinkMarioSamus posted...

At least now we KNOW that Zelda caught a bandwagon.

I think she has to have caught it against Mario.
Because her Snake and Sonic performances were pretty similar.