Board 8 > Coronavirus Episode 6: Return of the Jedi

(+) Yeah! (+)

https://weather.com/health/coronavirus/video/earth-is-vibrating-less-because-of-coronavirus-lockdowns

thank you everyone for creating less Seismic Noise

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Spain numbers:
-8102 new cases (total 110238, 7.9% increase, yesterday was 8.1%)
-950 deaths (total 10003, 10.5% increase, same as yesterday)
-4096 new recoveries (total 26743, 17.9% increase)
-220 new ICU hospitalizations (total 6092, 3.7% increase, yesterday was 4.5%)

I have heard we should expect horrific numbers out of France today.

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UK numbers today:

+4244 new cases
+569 new deaths


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Italy's update:
+4668 new positive cases (total 115242)
+760 new deaths (total 13915)
+1431 new recoveries (total 18278)

https://twitter.com/KeshiaClukey/status/1245739406121713665?s=20

Yes before you ask... New York as a state almost has the most cases in the world for any country.

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France:

59105 confirmed cases + 2116 in 24 H
26246 hospitalized + 1607 in 24 H
6399 in intensive care + 382 in 24 H
4503 dead in hospital + 471 in 24 H

compared to what was expected without covid-19:
Week 12: 14% excess deaths in population
Week 13: 19% excess deaths in population

New data:
cumulated nursing and care homes (quality not yet stabilized, but gives a first scale idea)
14638 confirmed cases
884 dead

So, France has not been reporting their dead from covid-19 in nursing homes in their numbers so far. They have been only counting those who died specifically in hospitals.

Thus, their numbers are underreported, but they added in nursing homes today.

Thus 471 died in hospitals in the past 24 hours.

They had 884 dead at least do far in nursing homes at this point they added.

So their numbers increased by 1355 today (but it's not all from 24 hours and it doesn't include people who died outside of these 2 locations).

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Spain and Italy have to add those in too still i believe. The report damned those 3 for sure and there may well be more.

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How are they disposing of the 100s of dead bodies they end up with every day

Storing them in refrigerated trailers

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LadyVyxx posted...

How are they disposing of the 100s of dead bodies they end up with every day

I assume burning them like China did but not secretly in the middle of the night.

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5tarscream posted...

I assume burning them like China did but not secretly in the middle of the night.

So if grandpa get the rona and hes gone next week bada bing bada boom we dont even have the choice about a funeral hes just tossed in the pile or how is this working
Considering theres apparently hundreds a day

Right now in the US, all i know is you're not allowed to see the body. Funeral homes should talk about this more, if they haven't already.

But expect it to be cremations.

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Kinglicious posted...

Right now in the US, all i know is you're not allowed to see the body. Funeral homes should talk about this more, if they haven't already.

But expect it to be cremations.

Hmm.

If we end up with thousands upon thousands maybe we should just give em the old burial at sea

And infect Cthulhu?
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Acthulhoo.


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I actually did consider this when thinking about toilet paper shortages earlier, but it didnt occur to me that redirecting commercial toilet paper to retailers is actually not that simple:

https://twitter.com/chrislhayes/status/1245801074507816962?s=21

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So someone crosschecked the data between new confirmed cases here in Indonesia and number of tests done and...basically we do about 150 tests per day and get 100-115 positive results back.

We're just doing waaay less tests than we need to do atm.

This sucks. People still not taking this seriously. The gov won't mandate lockdown since they don't want to have actually feed the people. And of course the politicians are doing their best to use each other's response as smear campaign.

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Raka_Putra posted...

So someone crosschecked the data between new confirmed cases here in Indonesia and number of tests done and...basically we do about 150 tests per day and get 100-115 positive results back.

We're just doing waaay less tests than we need to do atm.

This sucks. People still not taking this seriously. The gov won't mandate lockdown since they don't want to have actually feed the people. And of course the politicians are doing their best to use each other's response as smear campaign.

That's probably the highest positive rates I have ever heard of for Coronavirus testing lol. Talk about strict standards.

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Corrik7 posted...

That's probably the highest positive rates I have ever heard of for Coronavirus testing lol. Talk about strict standards.

sad Indonesian noises

Easy homemade mask without sewing:
https://twitter.com/YUA_nyan_22/status/1243329696823042048

LA has also now officially recommended the use of masks.

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I knew it was a hoax all along, I just couldn't figure out there angle

But now it all came together



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https://bit.ly/3bSbI95

This is promising if it's true and it works

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LadyVyxx posted...

If that's the case (and I believe you're correct) then what is the point in any sort of quarantine? Just to slow the spread so hospitals can try and keep up with the dead bodies or what

Basically yeah. Hospitals are overwhelmed even with the quarantine.

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Don't Dead Open Inside

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Spain numbers
-7472 new cases (total 117710, 6.7% increase, yesterday was 7.9%)
-932 deaths (total 10935, 9.3% increase, yesterday was 10.5%)
-324 new ICU hospitalizations (overall total* 6416, 5.3% increase, yesterday was 3.7%)
-3770 new recoveries (total 30513, 14.1% increase)

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Trump says masks made in the USA have to stay in the USA (which makes perfect sense).

Canada should be fine, our PM told us not to worry! We have a stockpile of masks. Where are they? We gave them to China back in December

Trudeau is such a fucking idiot

The place with the most cases in NYC also ironically happens to be called corona and I think I know why, a lot of blue collar workers there who have to work, zip codes where rich people live seems to have much less infections:

https://patch.com/new-york/new-york-city/corona-nycs-epicenter-coronavirus-outbreak

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Company I work for has basically furloughed 75% of the staff in the last 24 hours until June 1st. I'd imagine the majority of them won't be coming back either due to finding other jobs. We are definitely going to lose some good employees to this.

I think my job will be safe for a few weeks maybe due to the compliance stuff currently on my plate but we will see. 15 years of tenure might give me some protection too. We will see. If I am, this might be the kick in the ass to actually look elsewhere for a job.

LadyVyxx posted...

Trump says masks made in the USA have to stay in the USA (which makes perfect sense).

Canada should be fine, our PM told us not to worry! We have a stockpile of masks. Where are they? We gave them to China back in December

Trudeau is such a fucking idiot

Don't trust anything China gives you guys back.
Apparently it was right for the US to reject them early on because lately products related to this, especially testing kits, are being revealed to have been faulty across multiple countries. Don't know masks yet and I'm sure something is better than nothing but i think the rest of the world is their dump stock.

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Italy's update:
+4585 new positive cases (total 119827)
+766 new deaths (total 14681)
+1480 new recoveries (total 19758)

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Do you guys think we can all try and sue China for this thing when it's all over?

i assume you mean sue.
doubtful.

but i do think there's gonna be a hard shift away from manufacturing there, especially when it comes to medicine and medical supplies, which the US will likely dominate as the #1 place (and only place if you want actual quality - Russia ain't much better and private companies are probably using one of those two). i'd also expect everyone to agree wet markets are barbaric, disgusting, and shouldn't be acceptable of anyone who wants a stage as a world power. it'll all be economic damage and, in the only thing we can touch, i expect the WHO to get major restructuring. hopefully with some leaked info as to why they STILL provide cover for China and are a glorified mouth piece.

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French Numbers

Overall
64338 confirmed cases + 5233 in 24 H .
hospital:
27432 hospitalized + 1186 in 24 H
6662 in intensive care + 263 in 24 H
5091 dead + 588 in 24 H

care homes:
17827 positive cases (3189 new)
1416 deaths (532 new)


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For you raka

The number of funerals in Jakarta rose sharply in March, a development the governor of Indonesias capital city said suggested that deaths from the new coronavirus may be higher than officially reported.

Nearly 4,400 burials occurred in the month; 40% higher than any month since at least January 2018, according to a Reuters review of statistics from the citys Department of Parks and Cemeteries.
Jakartas governor, Anies Baswedan, and some public health experts suspect the number of infections and deaths in Jakarta has been significantly under-reported due to one of the worlds lowest rates of testing.


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https://twitter.com/noahpinion/status/1246180221100814336?s=21

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LordoftheMorons posted...

https://twitter.com/noahpinion/status/1246180221100814336?s=21

Is it a county with significant cases alrdy?

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Corrik7 posted...

Is it a county with significant cases alrdy?

From what I can tell from the county website there were 6 positive cases previously, and the mass blood tests revealed 8 more positive cases and 23 indeterminate cases. I don't know what the testing availability situation there was before the blood tests; in most of the rest of the country not everyone who wants a test can get one, so who knows how many of 8 and 23 were actually totally asymptomatic.

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A couple of things with that report. San Miguel county is a very sparsely populated county, the county seat Telluride being a town of just 2,484 (2018 est.). Spread is inherently going to be much slower in places such as these. And I like how in the replies this guy immediately shuts this possibility down with no extra qualification.

Not to say I completely disagree with the substance of that tweet, and it's still useful information. Any claim of "most" being infected by now is bullshit. Imperial College recently implicated ( https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellow ships/Imperial-College-COVID19-Europe-estimates-and-NPI-impact-30-03-2020.pdf ) that in Europe between 0.72% in the lightest affected country, Germany, and 15% in the worst, Spain, may have been infected by the date given of March 25. I think it's become pretty clear through comparison of what we're seeing now and what the anecdotes are supposing that any significant spread through January is unlikely and February sickness was still highly limited. Bear in mind that the US is about 10 days behind most of these countries' curves.

EDIT: Close the space in the link, of course

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Esuriat posted...

A couple of things with that report. San Miguel county is a very sparsely populated county, the county seat Telluride being a town of just 2,484 (2018 est.). Spread is inherently going to be much slower in places such as these.

I agree that low density communities will have lower spread, but I don't think that affects the conclusion at all; we don't care about the actual number of cases here, just the fraction that were asymptomatic. The additional info we are missing is how many of those new positives were exhibiting some symptoms.

There's gonna be a ton more asymptomatic cases per capita in NYC, but presumably the asymptomatic/symptomatic ratio should be roughly the same.

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I know, but my point is more with the currently unknown asymptomatic percentage. You're right that the ratio would be no different between Telluride and New York. With the Diamond Princess there was ultimately a 20% asymptomatic rate at the end of observation (down from 56% when the observations began), but it was also an older population and there may have been other factors at play. Iceland of course had a study that claimed a 50% asymptomatic rate, but that may have similarly contained a large number of presymptomatic people just like the initial overview of the Diamond Princess.

The difference between 20% and 50% is still enormous, even if neither back up the idea of significant percentages being infected yet.

I'd love to see more of these studies be done for a much larger sample size to show what the scope of spread has been so far, with less of an inherent social distancing.

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Oh yeah I don't want to dismiss the fact that the error bars are large, but to nail them down I think we really need to compare to a situation where all of the symptomatic cases were being tested.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

From what I can tell from the county website there were 6 positive cases previously, and the mass blood tests revealed 8 more positive cases and 23 indeterminate cases. I don't know what the testing availability situation there was before the blood tests; in most of the rest of the country not everyone who wants a test can get one, so who knows how many of 8 and 23 were actually totally asymptomatic.

Yeah, so that's not a good county to use for determining an asymptomatic population. The idea is that for every one infected that 25-50% have been asymptomatic.

So if they had 6. You would expect maybe 3 asymptomatics. If more, then the asymptomatic number is even higher than estimated.

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Corrik7 posted...

Yeah, so that's not a good county to use for determining an asymptomatic population. The idea is that for every one infected that 25-50% have been asymptomatic.

So if they had 6. You would expect maybe 3 asymptomatics. If more, then the asymptomatic number is even higher than estimated.

Well, like I said, untested is not the same as asymptomatic if not everyone who has symptoms can get a test (which is the case most places afaik).

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LordoftheMorons posted...

With everything going on I missed Jedi Academy releasing on Switch

Well, like I said, untested is not the same as asymptomatic if not everyone who has symptoms can get a test (which is the case most places afaik).

I'm saying they need to run that test in a dense area like NYC to find out just how things are going on in regards to the theory.

Saying haha San Miguel proves it is a pipe dream is some bullshit

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Bill Gates is likely personally saving us months of this crisis by building factories for seven vaccine candidates before we know which one will ultimately work, speeding up production once we do have a vaccine:

https://www.businessinsider.com/bill-gates-factories-7-different-vaccines-to-fight-coronavirus-2020-4

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The least yinz can do is buy an Xbox in his honor.

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Even though he's not a politician, I kinda hoped Gates would just run for president since that's what this country has come to anyway. I really feel the best way to get a new white house is for some big name non-politician to get involved.
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https://www.wbur.org/commonhealth/2020/04/03/wilmington-nursing-home-covid-19-residents

It will be interesting to follow up on this one in 7 days.

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