Board 8 > Coronavirus Episode 6: Return of the Jedi

(+) Yeah! (+)

Kenri posted...

I don't think that really explains the logic behind it though, unless your reasoning is that there's no logic involved.

that might be it though

Ive seen a lot of sentiment on twitter like were Americans, were not afraid of some virus!!! like theyre thinking of this similarly to 9/11 or something. Going outside is a brave act of defiance for them.

but their defiance is against a virus that doesnt give a shit instead of human terrorists. Its so dumb.
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Kenri posted...

I don't think that really explains the logic behind it though, unless your reasoning is that there's no logic involved.

Have you met the average person because theres no reasoning or logic behind most choices people make. If there was we also wouldnt have half the country literally $5 away from bankruptcy.

Corrik7 posted...

I have a feeling this pandemic is gonna end my relationship. Every single day is another argument about her going out and doing things. I don't see it lasting.

Yesterday was a birthday party. Day before was going around shopping for a birthday present. Day before was a fire at her sisters. Today is shooting airsoft guns at her mother's.

I dunno how people can't grasp things

TheRock1525 posted...

So it's really shitty being considered an essential business, coming home and not being able to hug my dad.

In fact I literally strip down to my underwear every time at the door and head straight for the shower.

guffguy89 posted...

I'm close with a family that acts this same way. They are literally making multiple trips a day to the gas station to buy snacks or this place or that. They often go to visit every relative they know, young and old. They have friends over all the time. I've tried to kindly tell them without sounding condescending but they just literally do not care at all. They say "as long as none of us are sick" even though you can have the virus without showing any symptoms!

And then they get all offended when I say I can't hang out with them. There are people, who, for whatever reason simply feel no inclination at all to follow these stay at home orders, and I don't think I'll ever grasp the logic behind it.

Really sorry about all of these situations :(

I don't know of anyone close to me that's ignoring social distancing, but I think I'll probably have to avoid going back home until there's a vaccine to avoid putting my parents at increased risk and it's really bumming me out.

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MoogleKupo141 posted...

that might be it though

Ive seen a lot of sentiment on twitter like were Americans, were not afraid of some virus!!! like theyre thinking of this similarly to 9/11 or something. Going outside is a brave act of defiance for them.

I've seen many facebook posts where people are refusing to stay home because this is how communism starts.

Has she told you exactly why she doesnt feel the need to obey your state's stay at home policy? Does she just not think its a big deal? Is the need to see family/friends that strong? What is the driving force here?

I know the family I'm referring to has always been a very social family. The whole multiple trips to the store a day/seeing family all the time is something they have done before this all happened. They just haven't really changed anything in their behavior. Still making tons of pointless shopping trips and maybe even more family get togethers since theres not much else to do right now.

I think possibly, to ask some people to make such a major shift to the way they live their lives is just unfathomable to them, especially if no one they know is sick.

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LadyVyxx posted...

Have you met the average person because theres no reasoning or logic behind most choices people make. If there was we also wouldnt have half the country literally $5 away from bankruptcy.

I guess. I think most actions at least have a sort of reasoning behind them though. "They just do it because they're told not to" doesn't make sense by itself because we're told not to murder also and the vast majority of people follow that. We're told not to smoke in restaurants and most people will go outside to smoke rather than rebel. Etc. It implies there's some kind of deeper reasoning at work here.

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guffguy89 posted...

Has she told you exactly why she doesnt feel the need to obey your state's stay at home policy? Does she just not think its a big deal? Is the need to see family/friends that strong? What is the driving force here?

I know the family I'm referring to has always been a very social family. The whole multiple trips to the store a day/seeing family all the time is something they have done before this all happened. They just haven't really changed anything in their behavior. Still making tons of pointless shopping trips and maybe even more family get togethers since theres not much else to do right now.

I think possibly, to ask some people to make such a major shift to the way they live their lives is just unfathomable to them, especially if no one they know is sick.

Super close to family. Almost every day she is with her family before this. Her family is kind of idiotic and believes Facebook memes are real information and shit.

I had to explain to my girl that Trump didn't really say #notmypresident people weren't getting stimulus checks. And she argued about it for hours because her family told her it was true.

So, I have heard basically it all.

Flu is 10x worse.
It doesn't matter if just us see each other.
I'm not going to not give my niece a present for her birthday.
I don't care none of us are sick.
You go to work. You quit if you think it's serious. Don't tell me what to do until you do.

Etc etc.

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Kenri posted...

I guess. I think most actions at least have a sort of reasoning behind them though. "They just do it because they're told not to" doesn't make sense by itself because we're told not to murder also and the vast majority of people follow that. We're told not to smoke in restaurants and most people will go outside to smoke rather than rebel. Etc. It implies there's some kind of deeper reasoning at work here.

The idea that their freedom is being taken away.

Some people just aren't going to view it as serious as others, they don't view it as being as dangerous as it is being made out. It's that simple. My future in-laws are the opposite end of the spectrum.

She had a phone call with her mother a few hours ago where she told us that it's going to get really bad over the next 2 weeks and it's extremely critical we go stock up on everything right now and not to leave the house for anything whatsoever for 2 weeks. No shopping, no exercise, no work. Like she was deadly serious that we do not leave the house at all for any reason.

Like I'm obeying the stay at home. I'm only leaving the house for work, exercise / walk the dog and to grab supplies. Some of the things I've grabbed are admittedly not essential (Liqour store and some things for the garden since I need something to do around the house) but I'm also not taking the piss and going out to store all the time or visiting people. I also avoid people when walking and in stores/etc.

Corrik7 posted...

Super close to family. Almost every day she is with her family before this. Her family is kind of idiotic and believes Facebook memes are real information and shit.

I had to explain to my girl that Trump didn't really say #notmypresident people weren't getting stimulus checks. And she argued about it for hours because her family told her it was true.

So, I have heard basically it all.

Flu is 10x worse.
It doesn't matter if just us see each other.
I'm not going to not give my niece a present for her birthday.
I don't care none of us are sick.
You go to work. You quit if you think it's serious. Don't tell me what to do until you do.

Etc etc.

Corrik this post alone had enough red flags that anyone would have run by now my friend wtf is you doin

... yeah she's basically only going to stop going out when she gets infected.

I'd prioritize your son.

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Kenri posted...

I guess. I think most actions at least have a sort of reasoning behind them though. "They just do it because they're told not to" doesn't make sense by itself because we're told not to murder also and the vast majority of people follow that. We're told not to smoke in restaurants and most people will go outside to smoke rather than rebel. Etc. It implies there's some kind of deeper reasoning at work here.

Those things have clear consequences though. They wont smoke in a restaurant because then theyll get kicked out.

Here, until they actually get sick, they see no consequence for their action.
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Kinglicious posted...

... yeah she's basically only going to stop going out when she gets infected.

I'd prioritize your son.

How can you do that? She has him when I am at work. If we were to break up, I obviously can't watch him while I am at work so he would end up being with her regardless. It's pretty much not avoidable. I mean, I love the girl. She is just boneheaded as fuck and listens to her family so much. You can get through to her when you can get her family away from her.

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Ryokles posted...

we now have a curfew. 9pm to 6am. Jeez thatll do tons

Just checked.
It's not really a curfew, it's a recommendation of a curfew. Technically nothing stopping anyone from going out still.

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Corrik7 posted...

How can you do that? She has him when I am at work. If we were to break up, I obviously can't watch him while I am at work so he would end up being with her regardless. It's pretty much not avoidable. I mean, I love the girl. She is just boneheaded as fuck and listens to her family so much. You can get through to her when you can get her family away from her.

Sorry to hear, man.
Like i don't have any uplifting advice here. I'd just consider her a lost cause and prepare for a situation where she's gonna get it, resulting in you needing to quarantine separately from her with the kid.

I don't know how to reconciliate the job situation. There any time off available?

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Kinglicious posted...

Sorry to hear, man.
Like i don't have any uplifting advice here. I'd just consider her a lost cause and prepare for a situation where she's gonna get it, resulting in you needing to quarantine separately from her with the kid.

I don't know how to reconciliate the job situation. There any time off available?

If I wanted to not be able to pay my bills, or let down my co-workers go on on UE and lose my medical for my kid and not have a way to pay my bills in August.

Between her family and Facebook, I think they are trying to make me a liberal. They embarrass me as a Republican lol.

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Corrik7 posted...

I have a feeling this pandemic is gonna end my relationship. Every single day is another argument about her going out and doing things. I don't see it lasting.

Yesterday was a birthday party. Day before was going around shopping for a birthday present. Day before was a fire at her sisters. Today is shooting airsoft guns at her mother's.

I dunno how people can't grasp things

I have family members that I think believe I am some sort of radical liberal conspiracy theorist because I've told them multiple times to stay inside and their responses are increasingly of the type of "you are a drooling moron". I don't even know what to say anymore that is helpful at this point.

Good luck!

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My grandparents are still hosting weekly cocktail parties. She's mad at my sisters that they won't attend.

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Corrik7 posted...

For you raka

The number of funerals in Jakarta rose sharply in March, a development the governor of Indonesias capital city said suggested that deaths from the new coronavirus may be higher than officially reported.

Nearly 4,400 burials occurred in the month; 40% higher than any month since at least January 2018, according to a Reuters review of statistics from the citys Department of Parks and Cemeteries.
Jakartas governor, Anies Baswedan, and some public health experts suspect the number of infections and deaths in Jakarta has been significantly under-reported due to one of the worlds lowest rates of testing.

Yeah, and that's a dang embarrassment, and very dangerous. :/ Well, not much we can do about it.

There are several developments that baffle me even more about the government response, especially that the Justice and Human Rights Ministry released prisoners, many of whom were serving time for corruption, to avoid the disease spreading in the lackluster prisons.
https://jakartaglobe.id/news/indonesia-releases-30000-prisoners-as-covid19-cases-double-in-a-week


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https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Down to 82k projected deaths from 98k.

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Spain numbers:
-4273 new cases (total 135032, 3.2% increase, yesterday 4.8%)
-2357 new recoveries (total 40437, 6.2% increase)
-637 deaths (total 13055, 5.1% increase, yesterday 5.6%)
-70 new ICU hospitalizations (1% increase, yesterday 5%)

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I don't want to get too excited by (less bad) day or two, but maybe these huge peaks are not going to be much higher than the numbers we've already seen.
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Again. Remember weekend numbers.

That said, the peak is still expected to be over 3k in a single day.

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This week should be pretty telling as we move forward I think. Just some early morning optimism, I know that's barely allowed in this topic and all but yeah. There are a lot of preventive measures in place across most of the US now, so hopefully we're doing enough to keep this from spiking too high. The fact a prediction was actually scaled down is just hopeful; that's probably the first time I've seen that since this began.
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v_charon posted...

This week should be pretty telling as we move forward I think. Just some early morning optimism, I know that's barely allowed in this topic and all but yeah. There are a lot of preventive measures in place across most of the US now, so hopefully we're doing enough to keep this from spiking too high. The fact a prediction was actually scaled down is just hopeful; that's probably the first time I've seen that since this began.

It's the second time it was scaled back. It was over 100k 2 weeks ago.

And, optimism is welcome. Just trying to say let's hope but also remember weekend numbers may not paint the whole picture. We will see soon enough.

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@SavageInTheBox

Can you give us an update and let us know how you are doing?

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Corrik7 posted...

If I wanted to not be able to pay my bills, or let down my co-workers go on on UE and lose my medical for my kid and not have a way to pay my bills in August.

Between her family and Facebook, I think they are trying to make me a liberal. They embarrass me as a Republican lol.

I mean... They sounds like pretty standard republicans so...

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Corrik7 posted...

French Numbers

Overall
64338 confirmed cases + 5233 in 24 H .
hospital:
27432 hospitalized + 1186 in 24 H
6662 in intensive care + 263 in 24 H
5091 dead + 588 in 24 H

care homes:
17827 positive cases (3189 new)
1416 deaths (532 new)

Those numbers look English to me

https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/local/2020/04/05/coronavirus-louisville-police-investigate-social-distancing-assault/2950227001/

Don't be this motherfucker, folks. Digusting.

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Corrik7 posted...

It's the second time it was scaled back. It was over 100k 2 weeks ago.

And, optimism is welcome. Just trying to say let's hope but also remember weekend numbers may not paint the whole picture. We will see soon enough.

The death rate does look to be around 0.6-0.9, in line with that paper released a week or so ago. It helps that the federal government did the right thing and extended suggested social distancing until the end of the month, and a lot of the big state governors were fairly proactive on this.

If we could just get Trump to lean a bit harder into this to get some of the most stubborn republicans on board...

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@SavageInTheBox

How do the NYC cops (and people in general) feel about De Blasio's response to this (and Cuomo's and Trump's too, I suppose)? I have a couple of friends in NYC, and their general opinion seems to be that de Blasio has done a terrible job but I don't know how generalized that is.

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Cops have said de Blasio has done a terrible job for years now. Right before this crisis was the incompetent bail reform which saw a double digit surge in crimes so opinions of his ability to lead were already in the gutter, he was a walking joke when he ran for president here too.

He's totally out of his league. He's simple not at all capable.

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https://twitter.com/bespokeinvest/status/1247194815160291328

It's over, folks.

My prediction that the total COVID death toll would be under last year's influenza total is looking to be correct.

One could say I was...ahead of the curve.

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When does President Trump start taking credit for saving 2 million lives?

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Nelson_Mandela posted...

https://twitter.com/bespokeinvest/status/1247194815160291328

It's over, folks.

My prediction that the total COVID death toll would be under last year's influenza total is looking to be correct.

One could say I was...ahead of the curve.

What makes you think that proves your point?

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Wait so you're saying we all freaked out about something that's not even as bad as the seasonal flu?

I do admit it is nice to be angry at non partisan stupidity for once.

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Corrik7 posted...

What makes you think that proves your point?

Hospitalizations in the epicenter of the outbreak are down 75% in four days. Models are wayyyyyyyy off on these assumptions (to a degree of 4x). I'm going to predict the final death tally by end of summer will be 30,000 or so.

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LadyVyxx posted...

Wait so you're saying we all freaked out about something that's not even as bad as the seasonal flu?

No.

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It takes a lot of resolve to still exist in such a state; I mean to be that unwavering is pretty unbelievable to be honest, for better or (definitely) worse.
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v_charon posted...

It takes a lot of resolve to still exist in such a state; I mean to be that unwavering is pretty unbelievable to be honest, for better or (definitely) worse.

You understand that a 75% drop in hospitalizations portends superior outcomes in overall mortality right?

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I'm pretty sure if this was an Obama era phenomenon you wouldn't jump up and down over a couple of days of declining numbers, especially when the country has over 8000 people in serious/critical condition (more than any other country has ever had at once, period).
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v_charon posted...

I'm pretty sure if this was an Obama era phenomenon you wouldn't jump up and down over a couple of days of declining numbers, especially when the country has over 8000 people in serious/critical condition (more than any other country has ever had at once, period).

Can't you just be happy? It is great news that I am correct!

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I'm not delusional enough yet to believe that, sorry. More people have died in NY today than yesterday's reports already and it's just midday update.
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v_charon posted...

I'm not delusional enough yet to believe that, sorry. More people have died in NY today than yesterday's reports already and it's just midday update.

Death is a lagging indicator. Hospitalizations peaked last week, so deaths will peak this week and then likely (and hopefully) sharply decline at similar rates to hospital admissions. We're on track for the total to be in line with seasonal influenza.

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But I truly hope that you can be happy when it's all said and done! I can't imagine living life as if the world is constantly coming to an end :(

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LadyVyxx posted...

Wait so you're saying we all freaked out about something that's not even as bad as the seasonal flu?

it would obviously be worse if we didnt freak out about it

even if sephs right about where this is ending up, it took weeks of social distancing measures to get us down to flu level. Covids definitely worse than the flu
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I will be, when it's all said and done. It just isn't going to be any time this month like you seem to be thinking for some reason. Hospitalizations are not a very reliable figure anyway, and I'm not understanding why you'd be interested in them. The core factor is the case number since that indicates how many people might end up in the hospital (the higher the case number, the more likely that the number of hospitalizations will also be higher).

So far New York is well on track to pass yesterday's new case totals, and that's definitely not a lagging figure, it's a figure that predicts the future.
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MoogleKupo141 posted...

it would obviously be worse if we didnt freak out about it

even if sephs right about where this is ending up, it took weeks of social distancing measures to get us down to flu level. Covids definitely worse than the flu

If the total is within lower season flu range, the we have to have a debate as to whether or not the actions taken were commensurate to the problem. It's not a simple yes or no, but rather "what can we do better next time better balance risk aversion with limiting disruption to every day life?" Hopefully the country can have that discussion without it immediately becoming a polarized issue.

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v_charon posted...

I will be, when it's all said and done. It just isn't going to be any time this month like you seem to be thinking for some reason. Hospitalizations are not a very reliable figure anyway, and I'm not understanding why you'd be interested in them. The core factor is the case number since that indicates how many people might end up in the hospital (the higher the case number, the more likely that the number of hospitalizations will also be higher).

So far New York is well on track to pass yesterday's new case totals, and that's definitely not a lagging figure, it's a figure that predicts the future.

How many people are dying who aren't hospitalized?

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