Board 8 > Coronavirus Episode 6: Return of the Jedi

(+) Yeah! (+)

interesting will be a word for it.

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It's a small sample size but it'll be interesting to note how many develop symptoms since from how I read it, they were all asymptomatic.
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Seems like the most logical explanation is that they all just recently got infected by a superspreader employee or something (or maybe bad tests with a very high false positive rate?)

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Spain numbers:
-7026 new cases (total 124736, 5.9% increase, yesterday was 6.7%)
-809 deaths (total 11744, 7.4% increase, yesterday was 9.3%)
-116 new ICU hospitalizations (overall total* 6532, 1.8% increase, yesterday was 5.3%)
-3706 new recoveries (total 34219, 12.1% increase)

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California has now fallen to #4 in number of confirmed cases (below Michigan)

Though we still have this absurd testing backlog, so probably not in actual cases

Washington is down to #10

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Well the nursing home down the street from me has one confirmed case. Willing to bet its actually half the residents. This will most likely be the wake up call for my town considering lots of people here have family living there.

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Virginia had a 15.8% positive rate in their latest test batch. Not the best ratio there. But it was also the largest number of tests in a single day so far, hence the jump of nearly 400 cases.

2,500 per day is still well under the ideal target here.

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Esuriat posted...

Virginia had a 15.8% positive rate in their latest test batch. Not the best ratio there. But it was also the largest number of tests in a single day so far, hence the jump of nearly 400 cases.

2,500 per day is still well under the ideal target here.

So 2500 tests a day in virginia which has roughly 8.5 million people so we should be able to test everyone in around 9.31 years.

Italy's update:
+4805 new positive cases (total 124632)
+681 new deaths (total 15362)
+1238 new recoveries (total 20996)

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Turkey

19,664 tests (161K total)
3,013 positive (23K total)
76 deaths (501 total)
302 recoveries (786 total)
1,311 in intensive care
909 intubated

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Latest US modeling predictions

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

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France
68605 confirmed cases + 4267 in 24 H
In hospitals:
28143 hospitalized + 711 in 24 H
6838 in intensive care + 176 in 24 H
5532 dead + 441 in 24 H

In care homes:
21348 confirmed cases (3521 new)
2028 dead (612 new)

1053 new deaths

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Wow, looks like CA is actually doing even better than I thought in actually stopping the spread of the virus (though not in testing, as I mentioned before)

Total confirmed + suspected coronavirus hospitalizations actually went down in the past day!

https://public.tableau.com/profile/ca.open.data?fbclid=IwAR0N5EOvetVfcwO6wkf9ijBPDYrUnbOB9V3I5s 5PSG7SRHxdkTUlVAYSvU0#!/vizhome/COVID-19PublicDashboard/Covid-19Hospitals (remove space)

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LordoftheMorons posted...

Wow, looks like CA is actually doing even better than I thought in actually stopping the spread of the virus (though not in testing, as I mentioned before)

Total confirmed + suspected coronavirus hospitalizations actually went down in the past day!

https://public.tableau.com/profile/ca.open.data?fbclid=IwAR0N5EOvetVfcwO6wkf9ijBPDYrUnbOB9V3I5s 5PSG7SRHxdkTUlVAYSvU0#!/vizhome/COVID-19PublicDashboard/Covid-19Hospitals (remove space)

I wonder how much weather is helping them.

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Corrik7 posted...

Turkey

19,664 tests (161K total)
3,013 positive (23K total)
76 deaths (501 total)
302 recoveries (786 total)
1,311 in intensive care
909 intubated

Holy shit that's a lot of turkeys

Corrik7 posted...

Latest US modeling predictions

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Actually this hasn't been updated since April 1

CA's unprocessed tests have dropped from about 60k to 13k today, the vast majority of them negative. Not sure exactly what was going on before (or how they cleared so many today), but CA's positive to total test ratio was very high so I guess they were probably prioritizing likely positive tests or something.

https://twitter.com/COVID19Tracking/status/1246558797214056448

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Still need to tag this topic

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https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Peak daily deaths at 2,600 something doesn't seem realistic at this point, at current rate daily death count could reach 2,600 two days from now. What I suspect could also happen is that this could become a wave model rather than a hill model with a ripple effect rippling from NY to other states since there's no restrictions on traveling between states. So in this model daily death would peak at around 10,000 for the first wave and then perhaps 100,000 for the second wave and so on. The reason why the second wave is larger is because its wider area of coverage due to larger size of the ripple. Many areas that had been infected in the past can then be reinfected since people can travel bouncing infection waves back and forth, this would create a continuous situation in which it could take years of prolonged mass infection before a cure is found. Of course if a cure or vaccine is found early on, then the numbers could be lower.

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It'd be cool if you could cite some sort of source for those wild numbers. I'll admit this graph's might be low but yours seems very egregious to me.
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personally i'm looking for more info on pneumonia rates in specific states as some numbers in the US seem a bit low.
that was also a method China used to discount deaths from corona.

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https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1246637795352944640?s=21

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He's officially in the running for worst mayor we've ever had.

What a fucking embarrassment. He keeps one upping himself on being fucking horrible, month after month.

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PinkoGodzilla posted...

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Peak daily deaths at 2,600 something doesn't seem realistic at this point, at current rate daily death count could reach 2,600 two days from now. What I suspect could also happen is that this could become a wave model rather than a hill model with a ripple effect rippling from NY to other states since there's no restrictions on traveling between states. So in this model daily death would peak at around 10,000 for the first wave and then perhaps 100,000 for the second wave and so on. The reason why the second wave is larger is because its wider area of coverage due to larger size of the ripple. Many areas that had been infected in the past can then be reinfected since people can travel bouncing infection waves back and forth, this would create a continuous situation in which it could take years of prolonged mass infection before a cure is found. Of course if a cure or vaccine is found early on, then the numbers could be lower.

The projection could fall anywhere in the entire shaded area, the 2600 is just the middle point of that projection. I see similar stuff with projected hurricane paths every year in Florida.

Like for April 4th it projected 1360 but the range could have been anywhere between 1133 and 1555. The actual number for yesterday seems to have been 1331

Almost forgot the real reason I came into this thread.

I keep getting emails from the gun range reminding me they are still open for all types of business. Not sure how the fuck that qualifies as an essential business.

ShatteredElysium posted...

Almost forgot the real reason I came into this thread.

I keep getting emails from the gun range reminding me they are still open for all types of business. Not sure how the fuck that qualifies as an essential business.

Self defence is pretty essential

Debate on Facebook with people who are upset that they have to wait in line at Lowe's and getting mad when I say they shouldn't be going to stores unless essential anyways.


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Italy's update:
+4316 new positive cases (total 128948)
+525 new deaths (total 15887)
+819 new recoveries (total 21815)

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https://youtu.be/k9GYTc53r2o

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Comment section just filled with endless right-wing conspiracy theorists.
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v_charon posted...

Comment section just filled with endless right-wing conspiracy theorists.

why is there so much crossover between conservative political views and belief in science-denying conspiracy theories? Its so weird.
I want low taxes, and I dont think gays should be married, and also all doctors are lying about a virus to keep me inside because the Jews told them to.
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Stupid and stupid go hand-in-hand; pretty simple.
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I find it weird that I still see a boba place and cigarette stand still open. I guess both are essential? Really?

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Grand Kirby posted...

I find it weird that I still see a boba place and cigarette stand still open. I guess both are essential? Really?

I imagine the boba place technically qualifies as a restaurant so it can keep operating and the cigarette stand... does it sell anything other than cigarettes? Maybe it falls under convenience store or something like a 7-11. I assume the specific rules of what can and cannot be open is different based on where you are.
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ShatteredElysium posted...

Almost forgot the real reason I came into this thread.

I keep getting emails from the gun range reminding me they are still open for all types of business. Not sure how the fuck that qualifies as an essential business.

Need to prepare for the apocalypse

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we now have a curfew. 9pm to 6am. Jeez thatll do tons

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Curfews seem counterproductive if anything, by driving people to do necessary travel and errands during peak hours.

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Corrik7 posted...

https://youtu.be/k9GYTc53r2o

this vid was pretty scary, the virus is mutating

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SuperNiceDog posted...

this vid was pretty scary, the virus is mutating

He isn't talking about mutation. He is saying they are treating it wrong cuz they don't know how to.

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https://twitter.com/natashaldaly/status/1246900371706036228?s=21

:(

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Corrik7 posted...

He isn't talking about mutation. He is saying they are treating it wrong cuz they don't know how to.

It was hard for me to take him seriously when he starts talking about the "thousands" he's seen when he looks right out of med school.
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Esuriat posted...

Curfews seem counterproductive if anything, by driving people to do necessary travel and errands during peak hours.

I highly agree with this, as well as with the "preventive" measures stores like Walmart are taking. I get it, in theory. But in practice it just doesn't work and keeps no one safe while most likely endangering them further.
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v_charon posted...

It was hard for me to take him seriously when he starts talking about the "thousands" he's seen when he looks right out of med school.

Says he has been working for 18 years or something in the video I thought.

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I have a feeling this pandemic is gonna end my relationship. Every single day is another argument about her going out and doing things. I don't see it lasting.

Yesterday was a birthday party. Day before was going around shopping for a birthday present. Day before was a fire at her sisters. Today is shooting airsoft guns at her mother's.

I dunno how people can't grasp things

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So it's really shitty being considered an essential business, coming home and not being able to hug my dad.

In fact I literally strip down to my underwear every time at the door and head straight for the shower.

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Corrik7 posted...

I have a feeling this pandemic is gonna end my relationship. Every single day is another argument about her going out and doing things. I don't see it lasting.

Yesterday was a birthday party. Day before was going around shopping for a birthday present. Day before was a fire at her sisters. Today is shooting airsoft guns at her mother's.

I dunno how people can't grasp things

I'm close with a family that acts this same way. They are literally making multiple trips a day to the gas station to buy snacks or this place or that. They often go to visit every relative they know, young and old. They have friends over all the time. I've tried to kindly tell them without sounding condescending but they just literally do not care at all. They say "as long as none of us are sick" even though you can have the virus without showing any symptoms!

And then they get all offended when I say I can't hang out with them. There are people, who, for whatever reason simply feel no inclination at all to follow these stay at home orders, and I don't think I'll ever grasp the logic behind it.

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guffguy89 posted...

I'm close with a family that acts this same way. They are literally making multiple trips a day to the gas station to buy snacks or this place or that. They often go to visit every relative they know, young and old. They have friends over all the time. I've tried to kindly tell them without sounding condescending but they just literally do not care at all. They say "as long as none of us are sick" even though you can have the virus without showing any symptoms!

And then they get all offended when I say I can't hang out with them. There are people, who, for whatever reason simply feel no inclination at all to follow these stay at home orders, and I don't think I'll ever grasp the logic behind it.

I try to be calm about it. And, try to nicely explain things. But, it just gets so frustrating in the back and forth that it always turns into a fight.

It's not going well. It's to the point of just shutting up and accepting it or moving on. Sucks because my son gets his family torn apart or he is at risk of getting infected by a virus.

How do you even manage that?

Today I got the nice retort of "Fuck you. I'll visit my family if I want. Unless you are gonna quit your job then leave me the fuck alone".

Lol. Harsh crowd. I wonder what Jesus would say about it. = /

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guffguy89 posted...

I'm close with a family that acts this same way. They are literally making multiple trips a day to the gas station to buy snacks or this place or that. They often go to visit every relative they know, young and old. They have friends over all the time. I've tried to kindly tell them without sounding condescending but they just literally do not care at all. They say "as long as none of us are sick" even though you can have the virus without showing any symptoms!

And then they get all offended when I say I can't hang out with them. There are people, who, for whatever reason simply feel no inclination at all to follow these stay at home orders, and I don't think I'll ever grasp the logic behind it.

People dont want to be told what to do. If the beach you live near is open all summer half the people might go once. The second you tell them its closed people are ready to rebel and risk jail time to get onto the beach. Its human nature.

I don't think that really explains the logic behind it though, unless your reasoning is that there's no logic involved.

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Kenri posted...

I don't think that really explains the logic behind it though, unless your reasoning is that there's no logic involved.

Well, his logic is rebellious nature.

In my case, this is like ingrained behavior. She has always been this way. She can't figure out how not to do it.

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