Board 8 > Smash Ultimate Mafia Topic 5: Or as others call it Smash Brothers for Switch

(+) Yeah! (+)

Anyway, I'm going to bed. I'm still annoyed this whole evening was spent defending myself against a fake claim, but it's made for some good reads on other players.
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ScareChan posted...

I guarentee you by the way that if Chris were here he sides with me

because like FD said, when in doubt you take out the bg here over the jack

and if Han flips town I am dead to rights and you guys lynch me afterwards
(which wont happen, Han is scum but I am giving you game theory here)

lynching Han is always mechanically correct

My name is FD and I support this message.

Seriously, if scare is scum then I'll takes the trade.
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ScareChan posted...

I have scum hunted

Geno and Doop connected them to you already and I town cleared Death

And I'm the queen of england.

Don't forget to defeat Thanos while you're at it, scamp.
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I am groot
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Forceful_Dragon posted...

Seriously, if scare is scum then I'll takes the trade.

It's not a trade.

Scum has to get a certain number of mislynches to win the game. It's a timer. If they get to their number... presumably 4 in this setup... then they win. It doesn't matter if we get a Scum out of it - presuming 5 Scum, we have to get more Scum than they have to get mislynches.

Mathematically, a 'trade' is an awful idea. And you refusing to read the game continues to insult every single person you've ever played with.

I would take Alakazam over you right now. This is shameful.
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HanOfTheNekos posted...

Forceful_Dragon posted...

Seriously, if scare is scum then I'll takes the trade.

It's not a trade.

Scum has to get a certain number of mislynches to win the game. It's a timer. If they get to their number... presumably 4 in this setup... then they win. It doesn't matter if we get a Scum out of it - presuming 5 Scum, we have to get more Scum than they have to get mislynches.

Mathematically, a 'trade' is an awful idea. And you refusing to read the game continues to insult every single person you've ever played with.

I would take Alakazam over you right now. This is shameful.

If you flip town, we're guaranteed a scum, which makes the scum need more mislynches, right?
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Hbthebattle posted...

HanOfTheNekos posted...

Forceful_Dragon posted...

Seriously, if scare is scum then I'll takes the trade.

It's not a trade.

Scum has to get a certain number of mislynches to win the game. It's a timer. If they get to their number... presumably 4 in this setup... then they win. It doesn't matter if we get a Scum out of it - presuming 5 Scum, we have to get more Scum than they have to get mislynches.

Mathematically, a 'trade' is an awful idea. And you refusing to read the game continues to insult every single person you've ever played with.

I would take Alakazam over you right now. This is shameful.

If you flip town, we're guaranteed a scum, which makes the scum need more mislynches, right?

No. Scumkill keeps things even, so lynching Scum does not increase the mislynches that Scum needs.

Night actions are the way Scum needs more mislynches. Red getting killed at night means Scum needs another mislynch.
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We're taking it for granted that one of Han/Scare is scum but like, how do we know that for sure? My gut feeling's been telling me all day that this is a poor trail to follow and Lolo has conveniently been absent for nearly all of day 2 after attracting suspicion day 1.
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Shonen_Bat posted...

We're taking it for granted that one of Han/Scare is scum but like, how do we know that for sure? My gut feeling's been telling me all day that this is a poor trail to follow and Lolo has conveniently been absent for nearly all of day 2 after attracting suspicion day 1.

Let me break it down.

If scare is telling the truth then had targeted Chris despite saying he targeted nobody.

This means Han is 100% scum if scare is telling the truth.

.

If scare is town there is no reason for him to lie about this. His credibility as town will be shot for years.

.

Now scare could be lying if he's the scum.

.

But there are ZERO (0) scenarios possible with town+town. It just isn't possible.

I recognize that scare could be the scum, but that's a gamble I'm willing to take.

.

And Han I know it isn't a "trade" so to speak, but there is a risk of being wrong regardless. And for what it's worth, if you are town then I REALLY appreciate everything you've been doing today. Your digging and hard work is noted and I will definitely be taking your thoughts to heart moving forward if they are confirmed to be town thoughts on your flip. So by all means keep it up.
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I'm going to bed so someone else will need to make a new topic if we hit page 10 just tag me.
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Shonen_Bat posted...

Well, there goes literally everything I was going to do today.

sets up tent

Your first post of day 2 (that one three above being your third). So what were you going to do going into day 2, and why was it shot, Shonen?
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I was hoping to find out why Chris was acting so erratic yesterday, starting and dropping lynch trains and seemingly changing his views on a whim.

Red was my biggest scum read day 1.

Guess which two players died night 1.
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Shonen_Bat posted...

I was hoping to find out why Chris was acting so erratic yesterday, starting and dropping lynch trains and seemingly changing his views on a whim.

Red was my biggest scum read day 1.

Guess which two players died night 1.

Ok. Chris's behavior being the reason you hopped from Red to Chris yourself near the end of day?
What brought you to that decision?
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I was getting more suspicious of Chris as the day went on, mainly due to him stifling discussion and avoiding most questions sent his way, but I'd say the Scare -> Jedi lynch switch was what sold it for me.
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Shonen_Bat posted...

I was getting more suspicious of Chris as the day went on, mainly due to him stifling discussion and avoiding most questions sent his way, but I'd say the Scare -> Jedi lynch switch was what sold it for me.

Ok, possible.

If I'm your main suspect now; I have a very simple question.
Why aren't you grilling me about the same stuff?

You see, the easiest way to get a direct answer out of anyone is to ask questions. Direct questions. Of them. If they deflect, you push forward.

Han/Scare is what matters today, sure. But when it gets to be day 3/4, you, and every single other newbie remaining absolutely has to be proactive on their own. Whether that's pushing my lynch or anyone's.

And on Han/Scare... yes, it's a tough call. But one we all need to make. You included, Shouen.
I am leaning towards Han being scum over Scare, at least right now.
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Maybe it's just my inexperience talking but I've been following all of day 2 so far and have no read on Han/Scare. They've both made strange claims and acted out in ways that I don't understand right now.

As for not asking questions, that's good ol' social anxiety speaking. Or not speaking, I guess. I haven't specifically asked you anything because it seemed like you weren't here.

I guess that's a good place to start. Why did you toss a vote on Sultan and then bounce for half of the day?
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Shonen_Bat posted...

Maybe it's just my inexperience talking but I've been following all of day 2 so far and have no read on Han/Scare. They've both made strange claims and acted out in ways that I don't understand right now.

As for not asking questions, that's good ol' social anxiety speaking. Or not speaking, I guess. I haven't specifically asked you anything because it seemed like you weren't here.

I guess that's a good place to start. Why did you toss a vote on Sultan and then bounce for half of the day?

Voting Sultan is pretty clear with Red being confirmed scum:

Red garnered my vote in the first place due to Sultan's behavior towards him when the train on red started. It made them look aligned to each other in the first place. I saw Sultan's kneejerk "whoa why are you guys voting for red" in response to yours and ben's votes, grilled him on his actual opinion on red (none), and voted red, moreso on sultan's strange actions there than red's in the first place.

I've been dealing with the aftermath from my nose surgery Monday most of today. But anyway, another thing to keep in mind is that if you want to ask something, just ASK IT. They don't have to be there that second. I mean, they'll either see it on the catch-up reading, or you can ask it again later.
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Hm, okay.

Your vote on Chris late day 1 raised some eyebrows and I don't think I've seen you weigh in on that? What's the story there?
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as far as roles go
It makes far less sense for a BG to not act night1 with a possible assassin/strongman kill impending
Then a 1shot doctor
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Shonen_Bat posted...

Hm, okay.

Your vote on Chris late day 1 raised some eyebrows and I don't think I've seen you weigh in on that? What's the story there?

Thought Chris's Jedi train was off and didn't make sense, definitely didn't think chris sending me off to look for scare aligned pairs and then not going through with the lynch he'd guaranteed made sense at all. Was not feeling nearly as bad about Scare at the time given I'd just gotten back from looking at him. Knew my vote would absolutely make some waves, as Han was already quite vocal in his distrust of me, and because it's Chris (who absolutely crucifies), but... couldn't help myself from doing so.
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Good evening death.

Han or Scare as scum?
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Still torn, leaning Han.

Him not using the BG at all strikes me as a little too selfish, and he would not be affraid to make risky claims.
On the other hand I cant deny Scare has not looked all good either while claiming BG is usually suicide anyway... and also BGs dont stop assassins or strongmen do they?
So there was no technical reason for scumHan to not say he targeted Chris night1. And actually claiming to have visited Chris allows the idea that both him and Scare could be town, and would allow him to postpone judgement by shifting to someone else.. (Like you, as Ben keeps trying)

So further investigation is required
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Dang, I missed a party while I was asleep huh? Anyway, looks to me like this comes down to
1. Would Scare be doing this as scum? This is because regardless of Hans reaction, it is just that, a reaction. Scare is the one who took the initiative here.
2. What do both sides stand to gain/lose from this?

Ill have to go over things more when I have more time and am more awake, but from what Ive seen from people more familiar with Scare, it seems to be leaning towards this being a town play from him.

If Scare is telling the truth, we lose a one shot doc and uh... whatever the third thing that wasnt track he claimed was.
If Han is telling the truth, we lose apparently one of the better Town players on this board, who has a role that would get him killed in exchange for keeping someone else alive, which is essentially a worse one shot doc once its used to actually save someone.

Keeping my vote on Lolo because Ive yet to see good cause to unvote, though if Im still the only one on him at the end of the day I guess Ill switch to one of the two main party candidates
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Lolo did you read my vote or even understand my actual thoughts on red? I never liked red and that was balantenly clear. I wanted to get explanations from Ben and Bat on the vote then I put pressure in Red hoping we could get a claim.
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htaeD posted...

Still torn, leaning Han.

Him not using the BG at all strikes me as a little too selfish

Man, you know how full of myself I am.

Anyway, it's a misplay to lynch me. I can easily confirm myself as Town.
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HanOfTheNekos posted...

TheSultanOfSlam posted...

Point against ham why the fuck does a bg come.out the gate and claim vanilla?, why would you feel obligated to claim at all as a bg let alone the first post if the game..

Why not?

I really dont like this response I was expecting a little though process...
Han you arent looking like town..

Though I still think the better option would be to look outside of Han and Scare for now beacuse for some random reason they are both town we are letting all the other scum have a free day
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Forceful_Dragon posted...

If scare is town there is no reason for him to lie about this. His credibility as town will be shot for years.

Ok, FD is lying here. He has seen Scare liter in this manner recently.

I'm not positive on Ben for sure, but FD is now confirmed Scum

FD has been doing nothing but pushing my lynch without a thought. He's intentionally lying to push it, and being a prick because he thinks he's untouchable today.

hombad46 posted...

Dang, I missed a party while I was asleep huh? Anyway, looks to me like this comes down to
1. Would Scare be doing this as scum? This is because regardless of Hans reaction, it is just that, a reaction. Scare is the one who took the initiative here.

Scare has recently been in a game where he faked Tracker in this exact manner. Made a fake claim, changed it. He was found to be lying. He got lynched.

He flipped Town vanilla.

No change in his claim, and no explanation. He made an awful misplay.

2. What do both sides stand to gain/lose from this?

Han - tries to gain a Jack with low priority powers lynched. Loses himself the next day, because he chose to go for the trade instead of a survival claim.

Scare - gains a mislynch, loses himself for sure the next day.

I mean, it's not a smart play either way you slice it for Scare. Which brings me to a thought, I'll put it in next post.
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I hate to use outside-of-game meta, but here's the thing:

Scare is starting another game, a hydra game on MU, where he is playing with Chris.

Scare doesn't want to do double duty.

Ergo, Scare wants to die.

Now that I'm thinking this, it seems incredibly obvious.

Now, I'm less inclined to believe his Scumteam allowed him to go through with this, but Scum can make plays on their own, so it's not counted out.

I can see Scare doing this as Town, but if he IS Jack, then I get mislynched the day after, which is definitely a bannable offense.

So I'm still inclined to think he's Scum who is making a suicide play because he wants out of the game, but wont get replaced since the host asked for no more replacements.

I would say a Town Scare is more likely to ask to be replaced, and let his slot lie idle while eaed looks, whereas Scum Scare doesn't force his team to deal with an idle slot.

Tl;dr Scare is making this hail Mary play because he wants out of the game.
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For those wondering - FD is incredibly lazy as Scum. His strategy as Scum is pretty much always to bus one Scummate, say "see? Told you they were Scum" then coast to endgame while providing very infrequent walls of text with little real information.
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Han thoughts on anyone other then scare?
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HanOfTheNekos posted...

For those wondering - FD is incredibly lazy as Scum. His strategy as Scum is pretty much always to bus one Scummate, say "see? Told you they were Scum" then coast to endgame while providing very infrequent walls of text with little real information.

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Scare's case cant really be compared to his scumgame, because I remember him pulling back his bluff there in the end..

Also if Scare is honestly throwing the game to be able to play in Hydra. Then thats gonna cost him a lot more than just an in game death, IMO
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HanOfTheNekos posted...

For those wondering - FD is incredibly lazy as Scum. His strategy as Scum is pretty much always to bus one Scummate, say "see? Told you they were Scum" then coast to endgame while providing very infrequent walls of text with little real information.

That is false. Like, utterly and verifiably false.

.

I was incredibly lazy once in recent memory as scum.

Because I was scum lawyer.

And literally the only way I could just not being night killed was by being so "worthless" that I could make an argument for scum having more important people.

In fact that is the ONLY time I've rolled scum in literally years since I only started playing mafia again in May.

Let's check the tape, shall we?

Phoenix Wright: Town Nilla
Blade: Town Super Hider
Tiny Toons: Town Detective
Chris Music: Scum Jack (with a lawyer use)
TV Crossover: Town Vanilla
Monster: Town Vanilla
Danganronpa: Town Vanilla

So yeah, get dunked on, Han. Unless you are saying my sample size of ONE mafia game in the past 8 means jack shit. I've been almost exclusively town, and I've had some mediocre games, but my last game was rock solid and I'm off to a great start in this one. Nothing you can say changes that.
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HanOfTheNekos posted...

Scare
Ben

probably two more with that.

Leaning on Pendragon and Lolo, but I would bet one of those is wrong.

Other probably Terra or Sultan.

Geno could easily fill in any of those slots, but only because of his claim.

That's my current view of the game, since someone (Doop?) asked me that earlier.

I still plan to do a topic 1-2 reread and purely go off gut, since that's a >60% hit rate.

I did FD to this list.

I find Ben is looking better, as my catch on him requires Scum to know I am bodyguard.
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FD, you being Scum is the only way I can explain

A. You playing this bad (hurry durr follow duh scan)
B. You lying about how Chris would read this situation
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And yes, I accept that sample size because you dont have other examples to state something different.
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HanOfTheNekos posted...

Ok, FD is lying here. He has seen Scare liter in this manner recently.

I've seen him make fake claims and then retreat to a real claim, yes. And he appears to have done that with his fair towards death. I think it would have been better if he picked someone besides death, perhaps one of the newer players to get a reaction from, but regardless he did what he did.

And then he said this.

ScareChan posted...

I will not be altering any information I have given further today. Han is my true scan. If I walk anything back feel free to lynch me immediately

And I admit, it could be a lie. I've never said that there is a 0% chance it's a lie. But I don't think it is.

If it is then we will deal with that tomorrow and it sucks. But I just don't see scare making that play. He could have stayed with death if he was just trying to suicide 1::1.
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htaeD posted...

Scare's case cant really be compared to his scumgame, because I remember him pulling back his bluff there in the end..

Also if Scare is honestly throwing the game to be able to play in Hydra. Then thats gonna cost him a lot more than just an in game death, IMO

It's a little forgivable if he's Scum, because at least he gets something out of it.

But really, that's the only explanation I've come up with that explains why he makes this bad of a play - whether he's Scum or Town.
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HanOfTheNekos posted...

A. You playing this bad (hurry durr follow duh scan)

Yeah, I'm following the scan. You never said the 4 magic words that would have flipped this script on its head. Thems the breaks.
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Anyways I've made up my mind for today so I may as well step across the line in the sand.

##vote: han

I'm going to get some more sleep and then when I wake up I'll look at day 1 like I was planning on doing before. I've said all I can say about scare v. han. If the vote ends up going the other way then hopefully I'm wrong.

If someone tries to end today with a vote on someone other than Han or Scare there will be consequences. Feel free to discuss others and scum hunt, but a splinter vote in this specific situation where one of them MOST is a complete cop out and it will not be tolerated.

I repeat ending today with a vote on anyone else will not be permitted.
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Forceful_Dragon posted...

...where one of them *MUST be scum* is a complete...

Fix'd
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I certainly hope Scare would have the foresight to not sign up for a game that would overlap with another game if he can't handle both at once...
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I have to go to work but I think Hombad is onto something with lolo I've been meaning to go baco and pull some questionable post from LOlo but I havent had the time to do so but I remember him having 4 or 5 questionable post day 1 and his game play today has been bringing up my vote on red but it's already be cleared up that my thoughts on red where never in favor of red and was against red but wanting more to the game play from ben and Bat.

So Lolo is someone for people to go back and look on wish I could contribute more but for now I gtg to work
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All of these votes on Han are baffling to me.

I already explained why there is no mechanical advantage to lynching either one first.

I don't know how to make it more obvious that Han scum requires a lot more craziness and stupidity than Scare scum.

I'm honestly at a loss.

Can anyone with a vote on Han please explain to me what they believed his thought process to be all through both days?
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I just had a thought, I couldn't remember when exactly Scare unvoted Chris, so I went and looked it up.

Chris [0] - (Scare), (Sultan) (topic 3, post 420)
Chris [3] - (Scare), (Sultan), (Han), Shonen, Lolo, Pirate (end of day 1)

As you can see, Scare never rejoined the Chris train even after it took off.

Scare [4] - (Chris), (Ben), (LoLo), Death, (Han), (FD), Doop, Terra, Han

These are Scare's own votals at the end of day 1. If he had gone to Chris, they would've been tied, as would Jedi, who ended the day with 5 including Scare. Not really sure what you guys do in a tie around here, but Chris would probably be a high priority scum target, and obviously he was since he was their first NK. If Scare was scum, he could've just gone to Chris himself and brought a scumbuddy with him to make him the first lynch. Granted it's highly likely at least one of the three people on Chris at the end of the day were scum already
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Votals as of 396
[4] Scare - Terra, (Death), (Doop), Geno, Doop, Han, (Pirate)
[3] Han - Scare, (Ben), Pendragon, (Sultan), (HB), FD
[1] Sultan - lolo
[1] lolo - hombad
[1] Doop - (Han)
[0] Pendragon - (Han)
[0] Death - (Scare), (Ben), (Doop)

With 15 alive, it takes 8 to lynch. Day ends at 11 PM EST Friday, November 30th.
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@eaedwards6400 while you're here, how are ties handled at the end of the day?
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hombad46 posted...

@eaedwards6400 while you're here, how are ties handled at the end of the day?

Ties go into a 30 minute overtime period. If no lynched is decided in that 30 minutes the day will end in a no lynch.
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hombad46 posted...

I just had a thought, I couldn't remember when exactly Scare unvoted Chris, so I went and looked it up.

Chris [0] - (Scare), (Sultan) (topic 3, post 420)
Chris [3] - (Scare), (Sultan), (Han), Shonen, Lolo, Pirate (end of day 1)

As you can see, Scare never rejoined the Chris train even after it took off.

Scare [4] - (Chris), (Ben), (LoLo), Death, (Han), (FD), Doop, Terra, Han

These are Scare's own votals at the end of day 1. If he had gone to Chris, they would've been tied, as would Jedi, who ended the day with 5 including Scare. Not really sure what you guys do in a tie around here, but Chris would probably be a high priority scum target, and obviously he was since he was their first NK. If Scare was scum, he could've just gone to Chris himself and brought a scumbuddy with him to make him the first lynch. Granted it's highly likely at least one of the three people on Chris at the end of the day were scum already

That would have been unbelievably scummy for everyone involved. Why wouldn't they just take the Jedi mislynch and NK Chris?
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