Lurker > Sheep007

In case anyone is particularly interested, MU is running its yearly Hydra games. Two players, one slot, it's a pretty fun time and we've had players from here represent us before. I know myself and IGCD did one back in (I think) 2018. Either way, if anyone's interested signups go until October 31st and games start pretty much any time through November. The gimmick this year is definitely to B8's taste, cause Scum can take the account of any hydra they kill, leading to a bunch of mindgames with identity. Most of the role setups on offer are a fun time too.

https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/threads/37486-Hydra-Event-2022%21

Xeybozn posted...

True, but there's also barely any comedy. What exactly is the right genre label for a "romcom" that lacks both romance and comedy?

That'll be slice of life, I'd wager.

I love the beginning of Komi (which I think carried my interest single-handedly through about three years of the manga), and I like the Komi/Tadano interactions. Everything else I can take or leave, barring Katai, who's great, and Manbagi, who may not have been introduced by the point the anime got to. It's just too slow and the filler often sucks, which is a shame because I really like the main two. I've heard the production value on the anime is great, though I haven't actually seen it aside from the first episode and the ED.

Aria has a really weird feeling to me. I remember enjoying it a lot at the time, but almost none of the show stuck with me despite having watched the whole thing. It's just kinda hazy and dreamlike to me, and the whole show has a certain tranquility to it. Very strange series but definitely one to check out for anyone who wants something comfy and low-stakes. Also, it avoids most of the creepy slice of life anime tropes, assuming I didn't block them out during whatever fugue state it caused me to slip into.

Speaking of creepy anime tropes, Monogatari. I've been meaning to finish it for years and regularly watched bits here and there, before being entirely put off by the actions of the MC. I just can't get past it and I wish a show with phenomenal direction and some great writing didn't repeatedly drop episodes where the main character commits sex offenses that are played for laughs. The surrealism drew me back in after being put off, but it's such a constant feature of the series that it's impossible to escape when watching.

I love Toradora, but there's definitely some glaring problems in the last few episodes that bring it down for me. I do love the characters, and I still think it's one of the best in the school romcom genre. Plus Taiga is actually a well-executed tsundere (even if I don't particularly like her or the archetype).

Xeybozn posted...

"Decent, but nothing special" sounds about right for K-On season 1. Second season is a huge improvement in just about every way, though.

Yeah, Season 1 of K-On is mostly good but commits several of the cardinal sins of slice-of-life anime (weird sexualisation and characters who are bland and one-note mixed with a slow and meandering plot). Season 2 is just straight up the best thing in the genre and fixes both of those big issues from the first season (although it's perhaps even less focused pacing-wise). Plus it's gorgeous, has a great soundtrack, and pretends to not have a plot before bludgeoning you in the face with it. Season 1 is only a 6 cause of its director and soundtrack, but season 2 is an easy 9 throughout.

Is 133 somehow gonna be K-On despite Roba being a CGDCT enjoyer?

Also, I kinda liked the setup (a little messy in places, obviously, but plenty of neat concepts. Upgrading roles from low to high power is kinda nice, and I think lots of killing roles stops that being too broken. It'd have been great in a bigger game and I'd like to see a similar idea if there's ever 20+ games again). The shop seemed like something Ben would have had a blast with in a setup, although I dunno how much he was involved.

Either way, it's okay to fuck up a little bit. Just a bit of a lesson to wait for setup checks, although I do get that it's difficult with most people willing and able to do so are either busy, playing the games themselves, or out of the community.

I will say that as a detached viewer, I thought Lopen wasn't Town for the whole game, was very confused when Ctes got lynched first, felt smug, and then realised what happened on the flip. Poppy and SBell had solid games for their roles, but Scum Red won it in the most Red way possible. Guess that's the "play the game not the setup" moment for this one because the dude had no business outliving both Ctes and Lopen. The first person I'd want on a scumteam to make a plan for something as convoluted as this setup is Red, though. He played to his own strengths and nobody really pressured him after the claims. Hard to call it entirely undeserved when nobody made him work for it during the day phase (as understandable as the decision seemed at the time).

Is Saiki next up?

I also thought Daily Lives of High School Boys from the hint and just didn't say anything.

Those river scenes made me absolutely lose it when I first watched them. Quality stuff. Some of the humour in that show is definitely a miss, but when it hit, it hit good. Although I don't think I've seen it since it was airing, so I may well not enjoy it these days. Quality comedy anime is hard to come by, especially with translation issues, both in language and culture. I like that show and Konosuba well enough, but I get what you mean about them being the wrong kind of funny personally.

Based on Roba's taste I wouldn't expect Goblin Slayer to sneak into the 2/10s (which would be a good thing).

I think almost half of my 9/10 and above shows have dropped in your 3/10s alone! Kaguya is definitely one where if you don't like the premise, I can see the difficulty getting into the show despite the quality. It really leans on the base idea at the beginning, and possibly even more when it turns plot-focused and tries to deconstruct the concept a little later on. I'm really interested to know what your highest ranked shows are considering the quality I've seen drop early!

I think I know what 222 and 221 are and 3/10 for any of them along with 224-223 absolutely kills me. Poor KyoAni.

Wait, Bisharp gets an evo? Like, not a regional form but an evo?

That thing is gonna be a beast in competitive.

I wasn't reading incredibly deep into this, but it might be funny for y'all to know that I guessed the scum team and an equal number of Town after the Plum lynch because I was screaming that there was no chance he flipped Scum. I got zero scum on my scumlist (HB/Corrik/Ben/Isquen) and Death and Lopen on my townlist. Honestly, I think Scum played fine the first few days, and just got absolutely ruined by great power usage from Corrik, Sultan and Chang.

If I could recommend any anime without personally knowing all of someone's tastes, it'd be Mob. So I'll make Mob my recommendation. Probably a bit more actiony than what I think I've seen you typically enjoy, but it's still sweet overall and averts a ton of the stupid gross anime-shit that made you drop some other shows.

XIII_rocks posted...

Do you really think Labour will win in '24? It'll be hard unless they take back a lot of Scotland and Sturgeon isn't letting up on Independence. I'm extremely pessimistic tbh.

A coalition Labour government is best-case (realistic) scenario, for me. Electoral reform should be a guarantee if they're with the Lib Dems, independence referendum if they need the SNP. If those aren't the on the cards I'd at least hope they need to pick up a few backers from Plaid or even the Green (most likely singular but there's always hope) if they're only a few seats short. Would be nice to have some long-term changes which are actually leveraged, however small.

Europe does not get more racist the less ethnically homogeneous it becomes. I'd often say the opposite, in fact. It's just hard to point to examples of racism internally when a country makes efforts to keep itself homogenous (and like, yeah, if somewhere is ethnically homogenous you won't see many examples of ethnic discrimination). Also, anecdotally, and as someone white but with an obviously not-British name living in the UK, I got so much more shit for it in entirely white towns than in diverse cities. The most racist people are the ones who have no awareness and have never met someone darker than milk, not the people in cities who live on the same street as three mosques.

Anyway. Look at how some of the whitest EU states like Poland, Hungary and Czechia reacted to the migrant crisis when hardly anyone had arrived in them. A lot of EU countries just straight up elected neo-fascists because they were scared brown people might come to their country. People are already conditioned to be racist and xenophobic, and the second they get told there'll be any impact on their lives it comes pouring out. In my experience, it's just less apparent cause you don't see it day to day unless you're there (compared to the US where you can live anywhere and know everything that's happening).

I'll also say that ethnicity is a little different here than in the US, too. There's so many nationalist movements and ethnic conflicts within states that it's kinda inaccurate to point at there being lots of white people and say there's no diversity. It's just different to the US conception and makes it difficult to spot if you're going in with those assumptions.

GuessMyUserName posted...

as a non-American I have to say that the need for non-Americans to pat themselves on the back for not being the US is incredibly annoying and fosters complacency

For me it's less patting myself on the back for not being in the US and more just vaguely trying to speak to the crowd and relate to the discussion, considering 90% of these topics are US politics only. I think I've picked up this habit of comparisons from talking politics with family living elsewhere, but I can definitely understand your irritation. It's not like the UK (or many other places) should be proud of how things currently work, and it's never far removed from issues elsewhere.

And yeah, protected beliefs absolutely need clarifying. I'm always for more employment rights, but it'd also be lovely to not have arbitrary laws.

I think it's important to differentiate between TERFs and straight up conservatives, because you will probably run into TERFs in most liberal or leftist spaces. The whole "gender is based on your genitals and determines whether you are a victim or victimised" as their entire ideology definitely leads to a lot of overlap, but a lot can't get past open misogyny from conservatism. And I know TERF numbers are pretty small, but they're a very vocal minority.

I also think some of the frustration comes from how TERFs should theoretically be supportive of certain things? Like, not getting treated like dirt because of your gender, or not having your agency removed based on your genitals. Which tend to be things I'd associate with feminism and makes it feel like they're easier to reason with (and they often have relatively sane takes on plenty of other topics, too).

I do think that addressing the historical attitudes of gender essentialism that brought about TERFs and transphobia as a whole is often more effective than focusing as much on TERFs as we do, but the arguments are similar regardless.

The big difference between the countries is that the few UK organisations with more socially liberal attitudes towards gender like the Guardian and the BBC have produced some hateful stuff about trans people. It's probably better to be entirely ignored than have organisations which could be supportive try shitting all over you. I think it's fair to look at Rowling for a lot of the movement, and incidents like the Forstater case (which I am utterly clueless as to how she won when compared to similar-ish cases) really blew the movement up.

Also, not to say it's as bad as in the US and I think we pretty much agree, but the UK government has made it very explicit that they are taking measures to exclude trans people or prevent transition where possible, and I would be wary about arguing there's very limited eliminationist rhetoric. It's the same basic ideas here, just far more politely put.

LightningStrikes posted...

Well look on the bright side. Theyre better than the Democrats!

To be honest while Ive been disappointed by Labour for the last year, they still have some really good policies like the National Care Service, and would absolutely be a huge improvement. And with the Liberal Democrats finally learning and making electoral reform with no referendum a requirement for any deal, theres reason to be optimistic.

Also unlike the Democrats a Labour government would actually be able to do stuff because it isnt held back by a system that guarantees paralysis!

Don't get me wrong, I'd be absolutely delighted if Labour did come in and their policies on the NHS and social care alone would be godsends, but I'm not going out of my way to actively support the party itself. I also don't see any realistic path to them actually getting in beyond a complete Tory collapse at election time, given how damn conservative the UK is and with Scotland almost permanently switching to the SNP.

I'd still much rather a coalition than just Labour, but I expect they'd need both the Lib Dems and SNP support, and I don't know if they'll accept significant electoral reform or IndyRef 2 as terms (both would make sense but a non-Tory government seems even less likely without Scotland, if I'm being selfish). I'll also say that this is me being cynical and treating some of the "safe" Tory seats as still safe when recent elections have shown that may not be the case, but I struggle to see a boring leader like Starmer winning over a boring Tory. Even in current circumstances, but especially with a war going on, Brits will always lean more conservative. I'd love to be proved wrong, though!

Regardless, I'll pinch my nose and vote Labour if I'm living in a marginal constituency because no chance am I letting the Tories in. Otherwise it'll probably be Plaid/SNP/Green for me, assuming the candidate isn't a nutter.

And yes, not to depress the Americans, but the crappy system here is delightful in comparison. Having to deal with weird old money families and stiff-upper-lip sociopaths is still a step up from open white nationalists and religious fundamentalists!

LightningStrikes posted...

Looks like almost Johnsons entire cabinet has turned up to tell him to quit. Including the new chancellor he appointed last night which is actually hilarious.

It's an absolute mess. I'd recommend anyone with a vague knowledge of British politics and a thirst for watching posh wankers backstab each other keep up with this for the next few days. It's low-stakes with a predictable outcome but plenty of twists, perfect for any fans of political dramas who don't want to spend all day thinking about how a decision will hurt thousands of people directly. This is just a couple hundred rich bastards scheming against each other to grab as much power as possible.

I just wish the opposition was a bit less shit because I neither support them nor think they're competent enough to get the Tories out in the first place.

I think actually playing Genocide is not fun, but it's worth watching some of the changes, yeah.

Deltarune is great and I'd recommend playing it, at least when it's fully released. It's just a better game fundamentally, without the glaring flaws of Undertale like its pacing, combat, and the physically painful ending sequence. That said, I don't think the character designs, basic story beats, or music quite hit such high points as Undertale (even though they're still great in their own right). Chapter 2 is definitely an excellent game, while Chapter 1 is just pretty good.

Also I typed that up a little while ago before the mental health stuff came up, and I kinda agree that it should be kept to a minimum if possible (saying a lot as someone who just said a shitton about life stuff that impacted the game, I know!). Mafia is a mental game and it's obviously going to have some impact, so I think it's difficult to ignore it entirely, but at the same time it's a very sensitive topic and it's difficult to act appropriately when the issue is broached if the best thing for the game might take advantage of or pressure someone who's having a difficult time.

I hope I managed to avoid making too many excuses in-game myself, beyond simply saying "I'm busy af rn". But yeah. Agree with the majority of what Chris said, although I'm a little unsure about moving to MU. Will think more on that tomorrow.

I am gonna sleep now the adrenaline has worn off, but I wanna explain some of my behaviour this game and I also kinda need to rant a bit.

Those of you who've known me since like a decade ago might recall that some personal circumstances led to me having a severe psychotic episode, losing my home and leaving the mafia community for a while (although I mostly played outside of B8 at the time, I'd definitely ran into a good chunk of y'all). At the time I hadn't ever gotten high school level qualifications, and managed to permanently ruin my health to the extent I was hospitalised for a long while before coming back here sporadically as I got my life together.

Long story short, shit happened, and I finished my undergrad back in April. While I expected to pass, I found a couple weeks ago that I'd gotten an absurdly good grade that I'm really proud of (UK universities are weird and like 70% of my final grade was decided by my April assessments so it was honestly kind of a shock). I decided to apply to an amazing post-grad university course because I might actually have a shot, and have not found out whether I've got on yet.

Another long story short, I moved into that university's city today anyway because I don't have a clue what I'm doing with my life and had no idea where I was gonna live in a few weeks. So I'm kinda just praying I'll get on that course and not sure what I'm gonna do if I don't but the alternative to moving was looking like checking myself into hospital and losing any chance at staying independent in the future.

So yeah. Mafia wasn't really the priority the past few weeks. I probably (read: definitely) should have replaced out and it was utterly idiotic not to. I don't think I gave the game the effort it deserved for the position it was in, and I'm kinda sorry to my team (especially considering I bussed most of them to get in my position. like... man, I don't wanna be that guy) and Sultan for that because I know I could have done far better and made the game better overall, even if I tried fuckin hard with what energy I had. I was stubborn and know I woulda kicked myself and felt like shit no matter how it went if I couldn't have some influence over it so stayed in to fuel my ego. I'm really pleased with the outcome (and proud as hell of Andy for how he did! I wish I could have coached him better but he fuckin killed it in a few ways, as evidenced by the result), but I think we got lucky in a lot of ways and I don't think it's good for myself to justify carrying on just because it worked.

All that said, I think I need to be back to emergency replacement for the long-term future, for my own wellbeing and generally ensuring that games are fun. I love Mafia, but it's an unholy combination of stressful, time consuming and a lot of responsibility. I have realised that I semi-intentionally ended up leading the scum team in most of this game as well as part of when I was alive last game (although there were other more vocal players then too) and it's not fair to whoever I'm on any team with if I don't have my shit together. Thank you for listening to my TED talk and I hope that FFD Mafia slaps.

htaeD posted...

Also Kirby you were so annoyingly town that I couldn't ever talk about you without giving that away, lol.

This but for Lea, although I found it a little easier to disguise it by posting my actual thoughts. I still can't read Kirby too well, but I physically cannot comprehend how SBell and Ulti saw what Lea did and went "oh yeah that's the same scum player from last game". We were trying to mislynch her on the final day and I still couldn't bring myself to argue against her because I couldn't think of a single argument that wasn't awful. I don't think Town was bad in general and a lot of y'all (Ulti included! You had the entire thing solved literally today) had the game solidly worked out on a bunch of occasions, but that and the end of D1 felt like you were missing your foot and shooting yourselves in the brain.

Kirby321 posted...

Someone's gonna have to explain to me how Sheep manipulated the D1 lynch, because I didn't even suspect at all that Sheep had a hand in it x_x Just goes to show how masterful of a play it must have been!

Han showed up doing something weird that was obviously a play for reactions. It went thoroughly against everything the narrative I had built all game, as well as what several other players had said, and simply spamming things along the lines of "what the hell Han" managed to swing it because I had already built up enough town rep. I honestly think it might have been a misplay and I showed my hand a bit too much, because Han woulda nailed me the next day if he lived, but I can't argue with the result.

HanOfTheNekos posted...

Oh yeah, Scum morally do not deserve to win for shooting MZero. You guys are assholes for doing that.

I kinda agree tbh, I just thought he was never getting lynched and didn't give Ben the respect he deserved after the mild suspicion on him D1. I think that was a bit arrogant, and on reflection Ben absolutely shoulda been an early kill. He was by far the biggest threat to us, aside from the one day in which Red was both active and widely considered Town

HanOfTheNekos posted...

I'm not going to both piling onto Ulti and SBell for this, it's just a game after all. I will congratulate Sheep - when Ulti called out that someone manipulated my D1 lynch, he was right, he just never bothered to find out it was you

Holy shit, this one got me. I cackled all the way to the bank at Ulti saying SOMEONE MANIPULATED THE D1 LYNCH. I played like shit the rest of the game, partially due to irl stuff which I'd like to explain because it will likely mean a lengthy absence from Mafia, but I will take full credit for my S-tier scum D1.

UltimaterializerX posted...

Both confirmed town are saying kill Lea instead. That's a pretty good case!

I'm kinda looking at the Lea train and thinking it looks better because of this? But at the same time... I trust my own read a lot more than yours rn. It doesn't feel like you're at all confident of scum yourself, and I haven't felt that Lea is more likely scum than BCT at any point this game.

BCT, I kinda like your wall. There's a clear thought process going on there, but... it's not really an argument? It's just thoughts being thrown out there, and nothing there convinces me that Kirby is more likely to be Scum than you are, nor Lea.

I'm also curious about something you said (or perhaps more accurately, didn't say). I'm voting for you, too. A lot of your theory is based around scum trying to mislynch you, so I'm gonna ask: why are you targeting Kirby or Lea, and not me? At least one of the players on you has to be Town. Who do you think that player is most likely to be, and why?

Hey, BCT. I'm here for about an hour, give or take. You have until I collapse to convince me to lynch someone else.

This challenge is also open for anyone else! But I'd appreciate it if he made a full argument himself.

First of all, SBell, what the fuck was that Lea vote? I think it rules out a BCT/Kirby pairing or at least makes it considerably less likely given the length of time it was up but holy shit as I was catching up I was increasingly concerned that we might have just straight up lost while I was away.

##Vote: BCT


I'm willing to take the chance that there's just one scum or BCT is one of them, because sod off am I getting lynched if we're one scum away from winning, just for Plum voting me D1 or some shite. There's not many two-person teams that I think can exist without BCT, and all the other one-person teams seem very unlikely.

Ulti, I don't know what explanation I can give for such wooly arguments. I really don't see how they're meant to be compelling at all, honestly? Can you expand on... literally any of your case on me? Because right now I'm just seeing a narrative that isn't really backed up by anything beyond me having good reads, and the conclusions feel like massive leaps (I do not think that Death calling someone Town is the compelling argument you seem to think it is, especially when you use Death calling me Town as a jumping off point to call me Scum). This is the second time you have followed this pattern today after doing something similar with Lea.

Contrary to popular belief, I'm a decent enough player (at least when I'm not scum) and I think my reads this game are decent enough on reflection, but I don't see how they're brilliant enough to be some scum mastermind bussing everyone. Like, I don't think my D2 scumlist of Red/SBell/Death/DYL/Plum was exactly controversial. I assume this argument is mostly coming from my D1 votes? Because I randomly voted DYL when Plum was nailed in to try and prod an inactive who already had some pressure, and Plum was obvious pretty much the second Han went after him. It wasn't exactly some massive leap to make myself look better. I literally fuckin led a lynch on Tidus rather than lynching Death when he was confirmed scum. Saying my reads are too good to the point where I must have been bussing when they've been mostly middling is laughable.

I'll lay out my current position and thoughts in case they weren't clear.

I'm still paranoid that there could be five scum. I am hoping that it's simply BCT alone and I'm wrong? But that D1 EoD keeps sticking in my head and making me unsure he's Scum, and I'm even more unsure he's the only one. I just don't see how a new scum player has type of energy if their entire team has just kinda died around them and they're staring at certain defeat. I don't know him well enough to say that for certain, though, and I'd like Ulti's input on it. This is in turn making me worried that his weird aggression towards Kirby is obfuscating something and the game is more complex than it looks.

I've liked Kirby this game. Not as much as most other players, but a lot of his interactions with scum players are odd if scum/scum and it looks a hell of a lot like they were trying to set him up for a mislynch, but overestimated how reasonable his play was. I currently think he's the second most likely to be scum, but mostly just through PoE. I don't think what BCT and Kirby are doing right now is distancing, though, mostly because if they're both scum they could just focus down me (or even just lynch BCT) and win quickly.

I've felt good about Lea since D1. The only reason she's even above Ulti is because the dude has two scans, and I still don't know for sure who I'd pick if I had to choose between the two as scum. I have been over this a multitude of times and unless someone can explain her D1 behaviour I don't think she can even be in consideration for lynch today.

Ulti is currently making me paranoid. I really liked him in the first half of this game, but I am getting a mild sinking feeling that I should be listening to Hangut and I might get lampooned postgame for being a dumbass. This feeling may have been triggered by the positively rancid takes he's come out with today. I'm not quite in the camp where I think "if he's godfather then oh well we lose" cause honestly I just hate losing and it being to a broken role wouldn't make it feel better. That said, the high specificity of the role makes me feel a bit more chill - he'd basically need to be a flavour cop immune ninja. Which actually isn't that bizarre a role if I think about it as a generic scan-immune role, but I seriously doubt there's a ninja given Plum's flip, so unless we kill someone else first and they flip roleblocker (because otherwise he's flavour cop immune ninja roleblocker which is a bridge too far setup-wise for even my conspiracy brain) I ain't touching that.

I'm currently good with lynching BCT, because pretty much the only other possibility if he's not scum is Lea/Kirby, one of them with Ulti, or solo scum. Lea/Ulti sounds fuckin weird given he's just decided to go after her rather than biting the bullet and voting BCT or me, so I'm ruling that out. Kirby/Ulti isn't impossible, but DYL's D2 looks even more nonsensical if that's the case.

This has primarily been a trying to logic stuff out post because I am not getting a ton of time to think about the game outside of big but sparse blocks. I apologise if it's hard to parse because holy fuck I'm turning into Kirby but worse with these walls. I'm hoping that going more plys into this game has just been a sweet waste of time.

Ulti. Say we lynch Lea and she does flip town. What has Kirby done that makes him look worse than BCT?

Also, I don't generally like to post stuff that's specifically in my own defense and prefer proving my alignment through my own play. That said, I feel like I shoulda probably picked up on this thing sooner and murdered Death to hell and back, which made me cackle and want to share. I guess I was still kinda working with the assumption there was a remote universe in which Plum could be Town before Death was scanned, though.

Go back to when I vote Plum D1. He slips that he was fabricating a reason to vote me over ScumDeath. Topic 1 and #325-#337.

I, for one, am glad to rule out the scumteam of SBell and Ulti. Was real worried that might be a curveball.

Well, I was gonna post something short and quippy about how Lea's not gonna claim untargetable as not-untargetable scum but I think her first post in this topic just about covers it. Please, Ulti, explain to me why exactly a scum roleblocker fakeclaims a role that can be tested through scanning on the first post of the game? Lea was open wolfing for weeks last game and from my (admittedly limited) read of her style, I just don't think she's the sorta person to pull a fuckin dumb, high risk medium reward gambit so early. Especially given her previous D1.

Also, NL is not a good option today. We'll just get SBell killed a day earlier and have one less confirmed town to rely on the reads of. There is zero point.

Obellisk posted...

the question here is does Scum get a way to fuxk with my scans and town gets a fuck with my scans miller?

If Lea is scum, wouldn't that just mean scum has two ways to fuck with your scans? I'm not sure what you're getting at with this.

Also I have been reading back older days and I think SBell softed scanning Ulti D2. That's a weirdly early setup for a scanner fakeclaim, particularly given Plum and DYL both claimed some form of scanning ability. Y'know, just in case anyone was still considering there was, and I quote, a 1.5% chance of him being scum.

Ulti, if you're gonna argue that SBell is even possibly scum you need to explain why Plum has abilities that fake movement. I am concerned that the three people you are arguing to lynch are the three least likely to be scum.

Ulti... Lea is not scum. You were in last game. You saw her play there and you've seen her play this game. We are not killing her today or ever and murdering BCT is probably the correct play here, although I'm gonna try and go over his posts so far this game first cause I am still unconvinced.

I am, however, slightly concerned about how heavily the narrative has shifted towards there being four scum. I will be shocked if there's only that many, although I might just be overestimating Sultan's balancing capabilities? I really am hoping it's just straight up BCT but I'd rather work with the assumption there's two scum left because if there's another I am very much setup as the winning mislynch.

If there is just one scum left, though, it's almost certainly some form of scan-immune or resistant roleblocker (because roleblocker with no other abilities would be absurdly underpowered with three scanners + backup on our team). I think we can rule out SBell with a 4 man scumteam, obviously, and it also makes Lea even less likely to be scum because what scum godfather claims untargetable lmao. So tl;dr fuck off is anyone lynching Lea today.

Also, Ulti, I really don't know if you're referring back to Ben's posts but he was convinced I was Town at the end of the day. It's fuckin obvious that I'm Town from my D1 and D2 this game and the only reason I'm even being considered for mislynch is that my activity has taken a dive.

Also also, idk how good an actor either player is, but this does not strike me as scum theatre between Kirby/BCT. Which is a little surprising to me, cause I thought they were the most likely scum pair before this? Idk if it could have been thought up cause I called the pair correctly, but it feels really odd if so (and frankly I don't know if Scum Kirby is scared enough of me to feel the need to do that given my last few days?)

I've had a very busy few days. I don't want to make too many excuses and will probably talk about it all in the postgame, but I am not deliberately avoiding anything. Just very busy and tired with weird hours of being awake and potentially active.

Mislynching Tidus as well as SBell going from seeming pretty clearly scum to confirmed town has made me stop and go "holy shit I am very wrong about the rest of the game" and I don't think I recovered from that D4 yet given I've not had time to seriously recalibrate my reads. I have considered replacing out but I also don't think it's fair to dump someone in the thick of this endgame and force someone to fight against a mislynch in such a difficult scenario with no clear answer, and I wanna see it through. Plus I'd kinda kick myself if I replaced out and we just lynch Scum and win tomorrow. Right now, if I had full control over each lynch, I think I'd probably go something like Death > BCT > Kirby? Most people (read: Ben) are saying that Ulti is the other one in the lynch pool, and I need to read back over this night to find the scum posts that make Kirby look good, because I don't think there's any universe in which I vote a scanned Ulti over Kirby here given I've felt better about Ulti throughout this game even before scans. I'm hoping I'm just incredibly wrong and we have four scum, but I find that unlikely. Whoever the last scum is/are, even if they're in my scumpool there, major props to them, cause they have bamboozled me throughout this game.

PunishedBen posted...

If there is 5 scum then is there even a multiverse where BCT is town? It feels like scum has been getting beat down this game and I don't believe there are 2 deep wolves

I mean this is where I was with Tidus yesterday and I was very badly wrong so I'm a little worried about us following with this when I've felt good about BCT so far. I think on the balance of things he probably is Scum, but I'm not nearly as certain as you.

PunishedBen posted...

Well firstly I do hope there's 4 scum and not 5 because I feel like we deserve one more mislynch after that doc save. In fact I'm sure there's 4 scum. You being insistent there's 5 sounds a bit dubious here.

Second I think I made it clear the lynch pool is you and BCT. So if you are town then the next option is clear.

I'll be pleasantly surprised if there's only four scum. The only thing that's currently giving me pause is how powerful the two scum flips have been, but mayor, backup, lie detector, doctor, tracker, and flavour cop is a lot of very strong power too. Perhaps more concretely, Death has to be a visiting role that isn't roleblocker, and also isn't scan immune, which I'd expect some scum role to be with three to four scanners ranging from fairly strong to Word of God.

I need to curb my paranoia before I post my ramblings, because Ben is also practically confirmed as soon as SBell is confirmed given his scan.

Hey, Ben. Let's say you're miraculously the Backup Backup Doctor. You lynch me tomorrow, I flip Town, you stop the scum kill and buy an extra day. Who're you looking at, then?

Wait I'm a fuckin dumbass I forgot Plum's role and SBell is straight up confirmed Town

PunishedBen posted...

Add to that Sheep was really hesitant to give a confident read on Death. Made a whole post ISO'ing Death and calling out scummy posts of his but never comitting.

I woulda been murdering Death days ago if we'd lynched Plum and I've had him on my scumlist since D2. I think on reflection I definitely should have tried to pressure him a lot more, but I kinda tunnelled in on Plum too much when people starting arguing he might be Town. And I definitely fell off after early game, some irl stuff got my activity knocked off and has kinda limited me to an hour or two of catching up and posting walls every day, cause I'm basically sleeping through the active timezones.

PunishedBen posted...

Yo Sheep is it you? If not you then who?

Honestly? I'm kinda stumped right now. Yesterday I couldn't see any realistic scumteam without Tidus on it, and I'm in a similar position to you where I think I have to have cleared a scum player early in the game to have been left alive. I was trying to do what I could to force scum to kill me N1, and that's making me paranoid about who I heavily townread, because that's imo the main reason to kill Chang or MZero over myself, leaving me considering you, Lea and Ulti.

Out of these, I feel best about Lea, actually? I got paranoid for a bit that I was just doing my typical thing and nailing most of the scum team early but hardclearing one and then tunnelvissioning them as Town in every possibility. But I always come back to her being so far outside her Scum meta from last game that I just don't see any scenario in which she's scum.

And then you and Ulti have been scanned, which is obviously a big plus point for you. I need to read those scans back when I can, and check some of the flavour meta because I know literally nothing about any of these shows to be able to tell if they could be flavour traps. That aside, I think both of you have been ridiculously Town so far, and I want to check the D2 votes again to see if it looks like Scum were pushing for Ulti after the Han mislynch.

Yesterday, I thought that the third scum (with Tidus/Death) would be in Kirby/BCT, and I think at least one being here is still likely. There's two scum left beyond Death, and I'll be shocked if there isn't one in those players I've only read as Town, rather than absolutely nailed in. I think BCT is perhaps more likely to be Scum than Kirby, because I've felt less good overall about him throughout the game? But that said, I have a lot of trouble getting past BCT's D1 vote making him look ridiculously towny. Like, he basically threw away his vote if he's Plum's teammate, which strikes me as really odd given Scum clearly wanted Plum to survive past that day specifically. If he's scum then getting him to keep his vote on Ben or Red just to try and swing that lynch makes so much more sense. Kirby's vote, on the other hand, fits the profile of a scummate-saving vote a lot more, but there's been lots of little things that I've liked from him. I've put him under pressure a few times because I'm not entirely sure on him, at least not as I'd like to be, but I've really liked his responses and I struggle to see them coming from Scum.

Which leaves me considering SBell. Who has claimed tracker, and I think I believe? I want to read back his last few days a bit more because I've definitely been kinda detached since D3, but for whatever reason I still feel most unsure on him. I just... really don't think that BCT and Kirby are both scum, and I'm not even sure that one of them would be. I'm a little dubious that we'd have a third strong investigative role in a game with a backup.... But I'm also hesitant to role meta hard, especially considering I think Sultan is a relatively inexperienced host, and the claim and reaction to it just doesn't fit the vibe of a scummate faking a scan on another scummate to manufacture a clear.

I too can feel dead town chat screaming at me for this entire post and I am incredibly sorry for whoever I'm gravely mistaken on but this is not as obvious as you think Han I promise

Why exactly do you think Lea is obviously Town, BCT? What separates her from, say, myself or Ben?

And yeah, the main reason I think you might be scum right now is definitely PoE, combined with just feeling pretty great about most players and not trusting myself to read newer players amazingly. I do wanna go back over your posts so far tomorrow, though, because I don't think there's many yet they're fairly content-dense iirc

Kirby321 posted...

Sheep, what's your flavor?

In any case, I'm KABLAM!, also Town Vanilla.

Really? You don't think it was weird at all that Ben claimed Red's role? Dude, let's not forget you got lynched last game because HB countered your Tracker claim. Why wouldn't my immediate response to duplicate roles be that someone is lying? And why wouldn't I immediately doubt Red over our Town paragon Ben?

Sheep, your response is starting to worry me. But let's set this straight. I feel like this should be obvious, but let's lay out the timeline here:

* Ben hinted at being able to lie detect
* I recognized this as a backup claim and mentioned that Ben should have a very good explanation for the N2 no kill
* Ben full claims backup but does not answer my question about N2
* I vote for Red. By this point in time, Red hasn't said anything
* Late into the night (12:45 AM in my time), Ben finally addresses my question and... says he has no idea what happened N2
* Red finally chimes in and repeats his explanation for N2
* I see the topic at around 2 AM my time and make my post unvoting Red, seeing how Ben did not have an explanation for N2 whereas Red still did
If Ben had a strong argument for the N2 no kill, I don't think I would've given Red as much room to breathe. But he didn't. So after Red gave his piece, I was willing to believe him again.

I suppose it wasn't so much that Red had a really good explanation and more that Ben lacked an explanation.

My flavour is Ren and Stimpy

And yeah, my immediate reaction was that someone was obviously lying. I was pretty sure it was Ben, because I was confident that both were town, and that's not a Red thing to do as Town whilst it's Ben's bread and butter. I thought the claim was Ben going for a cute little play for reactions from other parties rather than a genuine attack on Red, cause I think Red during D3 was screaming Town from the top of his lungs while saying practically the same things he was today.

Hence why I'm confused that what it took for you to unvote him was... just restating most of what he said yesterday. Like, when I'm trying to logic out scumteams in my head based on the past couple days, Red is pretty much the first player I exclude from teams simply because the nightkill didn't evaporate into thin air and he was absurdly hyped coming into D3 in a way I just don't remember feeling from Scum Red. Idk if this is all just me being paranoid and stressed and not communicating well enough cause I am doing a lot of thinking about this game but have very little time to actually sit down and write my thoughts up (and when I do it comes out like this fuck) and I clearly did not hammer it enough in everyone's brains D3 that Red is Town because multiple people that I have favourable opinions of thought Red was scummy enough to be worth voting. I will have to beat my dead horse opinions into a fine pulp for the rest of this game until people listen because fuck off am I waiting two days next time I want to lynch someone as disgustingly scummy as Plum.

okay. Rant done. I think your responses put me at ease a little and I kinda understand your reasoning (albeit perhaps more via introspection than your own explanation). I am now going to bed at 7pm and I shall be back either tomorrow or in the morning to resume our regularly scheduled scum-lynching.